Political Instability on the Rise as Elections Approach

Elections across the African continent are continuing to create tensions and unrest. In countries where political settlements have to be made distributing the power across multiple parties, there is a growing risk of instability that could aggravate political turmoil. In places where electoral support is divided and the incumbent’s rule is threatened, we can observe a high level of civil unrest with demonstrations becoming an element of the political landscape.


SENEGAL

Lack of Approval for Extending Presidential Term Limits

Earlier this month, Senegal experienced a period of civil unrest, which resulted in the death of at least 16 people. Although the country has now returned to relative stability, the political crisis has not been fully resolved. One of the reasons which further escalated the demonstrations was President Macky Sall’s unwillingness to rule out his candidacy in the upcoming elections, which in practice would mean that he would be seeking a controversial third term. 

Public opinion surveys have shown that 79 per cent of the citizens want presidents to respect the existing term limits, which in Senegal currently stands at two. From the responses received as part of the study, it is clear that uncertainty regarding the state of the country’s democracy is rising under Sall’s rule. The percentage of citizens who claim that Senegal is ‘not a democracy’ or ‘a democracy with major problems’ has increased by 8 percentage points since 2021, now surpassing over 50 per cent of respondents. 

In 2012, Sall came to power in a spirit of democratic change when he beat Abodulade Wade who tried to impose a controversial third term. Now, Sall could extend his own mandate to a total of 15 years. The president’s lack of willingness to explicitly declare his decision is sparking further uncertainty in the country. Future protests cannot be ruled out as Sall’s opponents are experiencing a growing sense of frustration. Furthermore, disqualified opposition leader Ousmane Sonko’s supporters have affirmed that they will keep fighting for as long as he is released, which could further fuel the extent of any demonstrations in the near future. 

GUINEA-BISSAU

Opposition Coalition Wins the Legislative Elections

Legislative elections took place in Guinea-Bissau on June 4. These were the first legislative elections since the National People’s Assembly was dissolved over a year ago by President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. The Terra Ranka opposition coalition consisting of five different parties, led by the largest African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) party, has won the election securing over 50 per cent of the parliamentary seats. According to the electoral commission results, they have won 54 out of the 102 possible seats with the president’s G15 party gaining 29 seats. Over 20 political parties competed for seats, but only 5 managed to secure at least one place in the National People's Assembly.

Elections Encourage Praise from International Observers 

Despite the president’s controversial track record around civil freedoms, the elections have been hailed as "free, transparent, and calm" by the numerous foreign observers monitoring the event. Over 200 international observers were involved in the election. Although several candidates have complained about challenges with getting the correct accreditation and reported physical attacks by other party members, the procedures were overall highly praised by the observers. According to their reports, 93 per cent of the polls opened on time and despite certain minor incidents, no “serious incidents” affected the democratic credibility of a challenging election. 

Political System Creates Challenging Settlement of Power

Parliament was dissolved by the president due to what he believed were “persistent and unresolvable differences” in the context of a political crisis and that organising elections was an opportunity to “give the floor back to Guineans”. However, the president has been heavily criticised for appointing his own government officials without a formal procedure in place during the transition period. His critics have also highlighted his efforts to reduce civil freedoms and restrict free press, as a result of which independence of governing bodies has deteriorated.

Around 900,000 people out of the country’s population of 2 million were eligible to vote in the elections. Domingos Simoes Pereira, the leader of the PAIGC party, is likely to become the next Prime Minister. President Embalo has expressed his readiness to appoint Pereira to the role. 

The future PM was the runner-up in the previous presidential elections, in which he lost to Embalo in 2019. With the semi-presidential structure in place and two rivals holding the two most important positions in the country, political stability might prove difficult to secure. The current president’s mandate is valid until at least 2024, which means that the political turmoil which the elections were aimed to resolve could in fact potentially provoke even further tensions.

SIERRA LEONE

Two-Horse Race for Presidency Dominated by Economic Woes

Sierra Leoneans will be casting their ballots on June 24 to elect their president. Although 13 candidates are officially taking part in the race, it is most likely going to be a direct contest between incumbent President Julias Maada Bio and leader of the main opposition party, Samura Kamara. 

The main axis of Kamara’s campaign has revolved around fixing the economy as alarming unemployment levels and poor economic conditions are increasing the risk of protest in the lead up to the event. The poor economic conditions of the country and widespread poverty has led to grievances that have pushed people out to the streets last year.  Despite the economic difficulties the country has been facing, investment in education and reduction of the levels of corruption are highlighted as successes of Bio’s presidency. However, due to poor global expansion and high inflation within the country, economic challenges are unlikely to be resolved regardless of who becomes the victor. 

Controversy Over the Chief Electoral Commissioner’s Independence

This week, the Electoral Commission published a public notice informing that soldiers and Muslim pilgrims were able to cast their vote on the 15th of June, nine days before the actual election day. The Commission claims it holds the necessary constitutional mandate to establish such a ruling, yet the main opposition has also published its own note stating that it has not been consulted. The National Election Watch criticised the Commission saying that although its right to set and hold elections is undeniable, this has to be done with enough notice to make the voter registrars available to all parties involved. 

The Chief Electoral Commissioner has been under constant criticism from the opposition party with accusations intensifying in the build up to the election. In his latest speech, Kamara has called the commissioner the ruling party’s “agent” and further condemned the alleged role of the security forces interfering with the fairness of the election. He accused the government of “arbitrary arrests and detention of opposition members without trial” and that through their military form of governance have “set to kill and bury hard-won democracy”. 

Kamara has requested for the chief and all regional commissioners to be replaced by an “independent internationally accredited team” as he puts forward accusations of publishing unreliable data, not respecting deadlines regarding data publication, and lack of commitment to managing free and fair elections. Bio dismissed these claims as “preposterous” and claimed that they were an attempt of destabilising the country and compromising peaceful and legitimate elections.

Razor-Thin Margins Could Result in More Unrest

With a significant increase in the number of voters since 2018 and fewer candidates taking part than  the last election five years ago, it is almost certain under fair and free electoral conditions a second round will be required in order for a candidate to reach the required 55 per cent majority. With so much at stake and the minimal margins means that both camps are unlikely to accept a loss. The opposition’s distrust in the electoral system is clear and its willingness to undermine the government’s legitimacy in ensuring free and fair elections creates a fertile ground for the results to be contested in case of Bio’s win. Simultaneously, the president and his party have not shied away from thwarting demonstrations and critical voices. Local media reports have claimed that groups of protesting youth were arrested as a result of protests in multiple cities calling the Chief Electoral Commissioner to resign. Tensions in the country are brewing and could result in further protests and arrests in the last week leading up to the elections. With the electorate closely divided, no result on June 24 is likely to bring conciliation.

Conclusion

Elections across the continent are predominantly raising hostilities between political camps and have been accompanied by civil unrest and demonstrations in many countries. In Guinea-Bissau, the electoral procedures have been praised for their fairness by international observers. Although the elections were proposed by the president as a solution to the existing political turmoil, the consequent cabinet reshuffling that gave a strong electoral mandate to the largest party opposing the president is unlikely to bring political stability in the following months. 

In Sierra Leone and Senegal, two countries where the opposition supporters have taken to the streets to voice their disapproval of the government’s actions, animosities are growing as the election date approaches. Where the incumbents have been unable to maintain stable support, civil freedoms are being undermined and democratic mechanisms being weakened have become a recurring phenomenon. There is an increased effort on the part of incumbents to erode democratic processes when elections show any promise of transitioning power. The risk of further instability and contesting election results is increasingly possible, particularly in Sierra Leone.