Backing Down from Controversial Third Term Bid Restores Democratic Standards

After a period of turmoil and widespread riots across the country, Senegal President Macky Sall has ruled out seeking a controversial third term. In Zimbabwe, a crackdown on opposition activities has been intensifying in the build up to the elections. And in South Sudan, President Kiir has stated that the country’s first elections will take place next year, although the legitimacy of this declaration is far from certain.

SENEGAL

Macky Sall Rules Out Third Term

President Macky Sall has declared that he will not be seeking a third term in the upcoming elections. The opposition leader, Idrissa Seck, has “commended President Sall for making the right and honourable decision” and described it as “a victory for the Senegalese people”.

The decision to run for a third term was seen as controversial and introduced tensions in one of the most politically and democratically stable countries in the region. Widespread riots earlier this year have been partially sparked by the president’s inability to rule out his candidacy.  

The decision has been widely praised throughout the West African bloc and the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has stated that Sall’s decision “represents a very important example for his country and the world”. His declaration opens the door for a number of Sall’s close allies to seek the country’s top position in the upcoming elections. This decision will most likely have to happen fast as Seck has already been confirmed to be the leading opposition party’s candidate. 

ZIMBABWE

Government Cracks Down on Opposition Rallies as Elections Approach

As the August elections are approaching in Zimbabwe, state forces have been obstructing opposition activities throughout the country. Nearly 100 opposition rallies have been banned or interrupted during the campaign period. The police, who have been accused of allying with the government forces, have been fully banning opposition gatherings on the premise of what the opposition believes to be illegitimate reasons. On July 9th, a large rally 100km from the capital was banned at the last minute due to poor sanitation facilities and road access. The lower court upheld the police’s ban. The opposition has accused the government of using state apparatus to thwart its efforts at a legitimate opportunity to challenge the government in the upcoming elections. 

This trend falls into a wider pattern of continuous state behaviour aimed at facilitating the way for the governing party to stay in power. Recently, the ruling party has sent campaign messages to registered voters via text messages, even those who are not party members. The message signed with President Mnangagwa’s name went out to around a million out of the 6 million registered voters in the country. During the registration of voters, phone numbers were captured as one of the data points for voters, which have been mishandled in what seems like a deliberate data breach. Digital activists have voiced their concerns that data rights have been abused for political influence, which poses a significant threat to activists and journalists as voters also have to submit addresses when they register. 

As election day approaches, the more difficult opposition’s operations are becoming. Zimbabwe’s administration has long foregone even an attempt to present itself behind a democratic facade, with the elections unlikely to pose any form of challenge to the governing ZANU-PF and President Mnangagwa. 

SOUTH SUDAN

President Kiir Declares Intent to Organise Elections in 2024

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has stated that the country’s first elections will take place in 2024. Originally, elections were to be held in February of this year, however, the clauses of agreement between the government and the opposition have not been met within the necessary timeframe. Last August, the transitional government of Kiir as president and his biggest rival, Riek Machar as Vice-President, was extended for another two years. 

Despite the president’s verbal promises, the UN has criticised his government for inciting violence and impeding democratic freedoms rather than attempting to install them. UN Envoy Nicholas Haysom has stated that South Sudan is “not yet ready” for free, fair, and credible elections in 2024. However, he has stressed that with enough political will, investment in the necessary resources and desire to commit to democratic mechanisms progress could be made. 

Instability in Neighbouring Sudan Causes Mass Returns 

The country finds itself in a state of both political and security crises. The civil war took hundreds of thousands of lives and resulted in over 2 million people fleeing the country. One of the main destinations for refugees has been neighbouring Sudan, which is now facing its own civil war and has forced many refugees to return to South Sudan. Around 159,000 people have already crossed the border back into South Sudan since the Sudanese conflict arose and the UN stated that over 90% are people returning back home. With so many people coming back into South Sudan, there is an increased level of movement within the country’s borders. The number of people seeking shelter and security remains very high, which provokes competition between communities for already scarce resources, leading to visible tensions. 

Conclusion

Senegalese President Macky Sall has ultimately sustained the status of a democratic leader in an extremely volatile region after ruling out an electoral bid for a third term. However, the delay in the announcement suggests that the decision was more likely caused by political pressure rather than an altruistic motivation to champion democracy. Although his critics may be right in saying that announcing this decision earlier could have potentially spared at least some of the lives of the people who died during recent riots, the decision itself is good news for democracy. 

Despite the fact that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has confirmed elections for 2024, the country’s road to stability and democracy has been painfully long. In the 12 years since the country’s independence, around half have been dominated by civil war. Over 159,000 South Sudanese refugees are returning due to the conflict in Sudan and with a scarcity of resources and unstable power dynamics within a weak state, the country seems destined for tensions and grievances that will further South Sudan’s insecurity regardless of any electoral outcome. 

President Kiir’s governance has been dominated by a corrupt system of patronage, which has rewarded loyalty and severely punished resistance while enabling him to hold power continuously for the past 12 years. As the country’s only ever president in charge of the state apparatus and its revenues, it is unlikely that he will find a sudden desire for democratic reform and take the risk of submitting himself to a legitimate contest. 

International Observers Question the Legitimacy of Electoral Results

International observers raise their doubts around the legitimacy of the Sierra Leonean elections. What was predicted to be one of the most closely contested democratic run-offs on the continent this year resulted in a controversial first-round win for the incumbent president, Julius Maada Bio. In Mali, the referendum seeking to change the constitution has been passed by an overwhelming majority and in the DRC, the opposition is refusing to take part in elections that they are already declaring fraudulent. 

SIERRA LEONE

Surprising first round win as opposition calls foul play

The official results saw incumbent president, Julius Maada Bio, receive 56% of the votes while his biggest rival, opposition leader Samura Kamara, obtained 41%. Pre-electoral analyses predicted that under free and fair conditions, the margin between the two candidates was likely to be much smaller and would almost certainly trigger a second round of voting. Sierra Leone has a high threshold of 55% for an election to be completed in the first round, which suggested that a second round was to be expected under fair electoral conditions. The opposition has called the election a “daylight robbery”. Kamara has highlighted that the electoral agents for his party were forbidden from authenticating the ballot counting process and has rejected the results, labelling them as illegitimate. 

National Election Watch, a coalition of civil society organisations, has published a statement expressing scepticism in relation to the accuracy of the official results. They have conducted their own calculations and came to the conclusion that the turnout was actually between 75-79%, rather than the official 83%, and that President Bio received between 48% and 53% of the electoral vote. According to their calculations, the opposition candidate should have received between around 44 - 49% of the votes. In each possible scenario, the organisation’s analysis suggests that the elections should have progressed into a second round. 

International agencies do not accept the results

This is a view shared by numerous international observers, who have undermined the integrity of the electoral process. They have called out “statistical inconsistencies” in the official results and have demanded for the electoral commission to publish disaggregated results per polling station.

The issues identified were discrepancies between the historic average volume of valid votes per polling state and the 2023 results. An unusually low number of invalid ballots and a strikingly high turnout in certain districts were additional occurrences which sparked distrust among observers. A number of countries and institutions, including the US and the EU, have published a joint statement expressing their concerns around the lack of transparency in the Sierra Leonean electoral process.

The country’s chief electoral commissioner Mohamed Kenewui Konneh, who has been accused by the opposition of being “the ruling party’s agent”, has informed that the disaggregated results will be published “in due course”. However, President Bio has already been sworn in for his second term in office, meaning that the disaggregated results are unlikely to change the outcome of the elections. 

The runoff to the elections has been dominated by violence

The elections have been dominated by civil unrest throughout the campaigning period. The week leading up to the elections has seen both sides of the political spectrum report cases of physical threats from followers of the opposing side. The All People’s Congress (APC) has claimed that one of its supporters has been shot dead by the police, a claim that has been denied by officials. The party also stated that another one of its supporters was killed by the security forces who were trying to disperse a crowd gathering around the APC headquarters in the capital. Simultaneously, members of the President’s SLPP party have also claimed that they have been assaulted by opponents during the campaign period. Taking into consideration the intensity of the political dispute in the run up to the elections, the streets of the Sierra Leonean capital remained relatively quiet after the results were published. 

MALI 

Malians have approved changes to the constitution

In Mali, the referendum seeking to make amendments to the constitution has been approved with 97% of the vote. The turnout was just below 40%. The military junta, which is currently serving as the country’s transition government, praised the results stating that it is a stepping stone in paving the way for elections in early next year and a return to civilian rule. 

Opponents have raised their concerns around the changes giving too much power to the president, while proponents have stated it would strengthen the democratic mechanisms of a currently weak state. There were a number of security incidents reported during the vote with gunmen entering voting centres and forcing voters to flee. Little voting took place in rebel-controlled northern regions. 

Under the new constitution, it will be the president who will “determine the policies of the nation”,  a right which was previously reserved for the government. The president will also be able to hire and fire the prime minister and cabinet members “and the government will be answerable to him and not to parliament, as is the case currently.” In an attempt to reduce corruption levels, politicians will have to declare their wealth. Other clauses would give amnesty to perpetrators of prior coups. 

The process of conducting the referendum was marked by a period of turmoil. There was a delay in the publication of the results due to violence against electoral authorities. Before the referendum, the ruling junta asked the UN peacekeeping mission to leave the country. This was done on the accusation of “espionage”, following a UN report which very strongly criticised the governing regime for killings and massacres taking place at the hands of Malian troops and their allies. 

DRC

Largest opposition party to boycott elections if conditions not met

The leader of the largest opposition party in DR Congo, Martin Fayulu, has declared that his party will not take part in the upcoming elections if the electoral procedures are not revised to fulfil democratic standards. According to Fayulu, the voter identification and registration processes are being carried out illegitimately and as a result are preparing for fraudulent elections. The politician, who came second in the last presidential elections in 2018, has stated that his party will not be fielding any candidates in the upcoming vote unless an external audit verifies the legitimacy of the current processes. The country’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), included international experts in its last review of the electoral list, who have deemed the electoral process as reliable. However, the US, EU, and other Western countries have claimed that the procedures have not been independent and transparent enough. 

The lead up to the elections, which will be taking place in December this year, have been dominated by tensions, anti-government demonstrations, and complaints from opposition candidates who have stated that they have been disadvantaged due to irregularities in the process. The country is also facing significant challenges in the eastern regions which are dominated by rebel groups. Registration in those areas has proven to be increasingly difficult and elections could become difficult to carry out. 

Conclusion

The elections in Sierra Leone were expected to be one of the most closely contested on the African continent. President Bio beat his biggest rival by a very narrow margin of around four percentage points five years ago. A similar outcome in which the two candidates would face each other in a high-contested second round was anticipated. Instead, the incumbent president's first-round victory has failed to convince civil society organisations, electoral observers, and the international community. This has sent a deeply alarming signal about the state of the country’s democracy, which without the lack of a universal consensus around electoral procedures severely erodes its legitimacy. In Mali and the DRC, the respective governments are struggling with conducting elections in areas dominated by rebel groups. The two fragile states are unable to fully control its borders, which has a damaging effect on the population’s access to democratic procedures.   

Political Instability on the Rise as Elections Approach

Elections across the African continent are continuing to create tensions and unrest. In countries where political settlements have to be made distributing the power across multiple parties, there is a growing risk of instability that could aggravate political turmoil. In places where electoral support is divided and the incumbent’s rule is threatened, we can observe a high level of civil unrest with demonstrations becoming an element of the political landscape.


SENEGAL

Lack of Approval for Extending Presidential Term Limits

Earlier this month, Senegal experienced a period of civil unrest, which resulted in the death of at least 16 people. Although the country has now returned to relative stability, the political crisis has not been fully resolved. One of the reasons which further escalated the demonstrations was President Macky Sall’s unwillingness to rule out his candidacy in the upcoming elections, which in practice would mean that he would be seeking a controversial third term. 

Public opinion surveys have shown that 79 per cent of the citizens want presidents to respect the existing term limits, which in Senegal currently stands at two. From the responses received as part of the study, it is clear that uncertainty regarding the state of the country’s democracy is rising under Sall’s rule. The percentage of citizens who claim that Senegal is ‘not a democracy’ or ‘a democracy with major problems’ has increased by 8 percentage points since 2021, now surpassing over 50 per cent of respondents. 

In 2012, Sall came to power in a spirit of democratic change when he beat Abodulade Wade who tried to impose a controversial third term. Now, Sall could extend his own mandate to a total of 15 years. The president’s lack of willingness to explicitly declare his decision is sparking further uncertainty in the country. Future protests cannot be ruled out as Sall’s opponents are experiencing a growing sense of frustration. Furthermore, disqualified opposition leader Ousmane Sonko’s supporters have affirmed that they will keep fighting for as long as he is released, which could further fuel the extent of any demonstrations in the near future. 

GUINEA-BISSAU

Opposition Coalition Wins the Legislative Elections

Legislative elections took place in Guinea-Bissau on June 4. These were the first legislative elections since the National People’s Assembly was dissolved over a year ago by President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. The Terra Ranka opposition coalition consisting of five different parties, led by the largest African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) party, has won the election securing over 50 per cent of the parliamentary seats. According to the electoral commission results, they have won 54 out of the 102 possible seats with the president’s G15 party gaining 29 seats. Over 20 political parties competed for seats, but only 5 managed to secure at least one place in the National People's Assembly.

Elections Encourage Praise from International Observers 

Despite the president’s controversial track record around civil freedoms, the elections have been hailed as "free, transparent, and calm" by the numerous foreign observers monitoring the event. Over 200 international observers were involved in the election. Although several candidates have complained about challenges with getting the correct accreditation and reported physical attacks by other party members, the procedures were overall highly praised by the observers. According to their reports, 93 per cent of the polls opened on time and despite certain minor incidents, no “serious incidents” affected the democratic credibility of a challenging election. 

Political System Creates Challenging Settlement of Power

Parliament was dissolved by the president due to what he believed were “persistent and unresolvable differences” in the context of a political crisis and that organising elections was an opportunity to “give the floor back to Guineans”. However, the president has been heavily criticised for appointing his own government officials without a formal procedure in place during the transition period. His critics have also highlighted his efforts to reduce civil freedoms and restrict free press, as a result of which independence of governing bodies has deteriorated.

Around 900,000 people out of the country’s population of 2 million were eligible to vote in the elections. Domingos Simoes Pereira, the leader of the PAIGC party, is likely to become the next Prime Minister. President Embalo has expressed his readiness to appoint Pereira to the role. 

The future PM was the runner-up in the previous presidential elections, in which he lost to Embalo in 2019. With the semi-presidential structure in place and two rivals holding the two most important positions in the country, political stability might prove difficult to secure. The current president’s mandate is valid until at least 2024, which means that the political turmoil which the elections were aimed to resolve could in fact potentially provoke even further tensions.

SIERRA LEONE

Two-Horse Race for Presidency Dominated by Economic Woes

Sierra Leoneans will be casting their ballots on June 24 to elect their president. Although 13 candidates are officially taking part in the race, it is most likely going to be a direct contest between incumbent President Julias Maada Bio and leader of the main opposition party, Samura Kamara. 

The main axis of Kamara’s campaign has revolved around fixing the economy as alarming unemployment levels and poor economic conditions are increasing the risk of protest in the lead up to the event. The poor economic conditions of the country and widespread poverty has led to grievances that have pushed people out to the streets last year.  Despite the economic difficulties the country has been facing, investment in education and reduction of the levels of corruption are highlighted as successes of Bio’s presidency. However, due to poor global expansion and high inflation within the country, economic challenges are unlikely to be resolved regardless of who becomes the victor. 

Controversy Over the Chief Electoral Commissioner’s Independence

This week, the Electoral Commission published a public notice informing that soldiers and Muslim pilgrims were able to cast their vote on the 15th of June, nine days before the actual election day. The Commission claims it holds the necessary constitutional mandate to establish such a ruling, yet the main opposition has also published its own note stating that it has not been consulted. The National Election Watch criticised the Commission saying that although its right to set and hold elections is undeniable, this has to be done with enough notice to make the voter registrars available to all parties involved. 

The Chief Electoral Commissioner has been under constant criticism from the opposition party with accusations intensifying in the build up to the election. In his latest speech, Kamara has called the commissioner the ruling party’s “agent” and further condemned the alleged role of the security forces interfering with the fairness of the election. He accused the government of “arbitrary arrests and detention of opposition members without trial” and that through their military form of governance have “set to kill and bury hard-won democracy”. 

Kamara has requested for the chief and all regional commissioners to be replaced by an “independent internationally accredited team” as he puts forward accusations of publishing unreliable data, not respecting deadlines regarding data publication, and lack of commitment to managing free and fair elections. Bio dismissed these claims as “preposterous” and claimed that they were an attempt of destabilising the country and compromising peaceful and legitimate elections.

Razor-Thin Margins Could Result in More Unrest

With a significant increase in the number of voters since 2018 and fewer candidates taking part than  the last election five years ago, it is almost certain under fair and free electoral conditions a second round will be required in order for a candidate to reach the required 55 per cent majority. With so much at stake and the minimal margins means that both camps are unlikely to accept a loss. The opposition’s distrust in the electoral system is clear and its willingness to undermine the government’s legitimacy in ensuring free and fair elections creates a fertile ground for the results to be contested in case of Bio’s win. Simultaneously, the president and his party have not shied away from thwarting demonstrations and critical voices. Local media reports have claimed that groups of protesting youth were arrested as a result of protests in multiple cities calling the Chief Electoral Commissioner to resign. Tensions in the country are brewing and could result in further protests and arrests in the last week leading up to the elections. With the electorate closely divided, no result on June 24 is likely to bring conciliation.

Conclusion

Elections across the continent are predominantly raising hostilities between political camps and have been accompanied by civil unrest and demonstrations in many countries. In Guinea-Bissau, the electoral procedures have been praised for their fairness by international observers. Although the elections were proposed by the president as a solution to the existing political turmoil, the consequent cabinet reshuffling that gave a strong electoral mandate to the largest party opposing the president is unlikely to bring political stability in the following months. 

In Sierra Leone and Senegal, two countries where the opposition supporters have taken to the streets to voice their disapproval of the government’s actions, animosities are growing as the election date approaches. Where the incumbents have been unable to maintain stable support, civil freedoms are being undermined and democratic mechanisms being weakened have become a recurring phenomenon. There is an increased effort on the part of incumbents to erode democratic processes when elections show any promise of transitioning power. The risk of further instability and contesting election results is increasingly possible, particularly in Sierra Leone. 

Protest Clashes & Continued Oppressions on Freedom

Civil unrest in Senegal has brought a crisis to one of the most politically stable countries in the West African region. Uncertainty around the electoral procedures and treatment of political opponents has created civil unrest in a country, which for years has been heralded as a model of democratic stability for the region. Additionally, approaching elections in other countries on the African continent are also increasing tensions as controversies over the opposition’s right to fair elections have been doubted. 

SENEGAL

On 1 June, Ousmane Sonko, one of the Senegalese opposition’s most prominent politicians, was sentenced to two years in prison. Sonko was charged and convicted with “corrupting the youth” by having intimate contact with someone younger than the age of 21. Although Sonko denied the allegations, his conviction means he is now disqualified from taking part in the February 2024 election. Sonko was also charged with raping a woman and making death threats against her but was acquited on those charges. Feminists in Senegal are in fear that the acquittal of rape charges will set the country back in its fight for gender equality as the court dismissed a rare chance in attaining justice for victims of sexual violence. Aminata Libain Mbengue of the Feminists’ Network of Senegal stated, “This trial is a huge setback that will leave its mark on the history of women’s rights.”

His detention has sparked widespread protest in multiple cities across the country, with Sonko supporters accusing the government of using the judicial system to instrumentally eliminate potential opponents for the upcoming elections. Violence began at a central university campus in Dakar and spread into other cities. Among the sites targeted by the protestors were homes of ministers, foreign-owned supermarkets, and petrol stations. As of 10 June, there have been 16 deaths as a consequence of the riots. 


Protest Motives

The protests were not purely caused by the arrest of Ousmane Sonko alone. They were incited by President Macky Sall’s attempt to secure a controversial third term. He was elected for the first time in 2012 and then reelected in 2019. The constitution was amended in 2016 and states that the president cannot serve “more than two consecutive mandates”. President Sall is claiming that an update to the Constitution during his time in office exempts his first term from the rule. He has not yet officially declared a desire to run, but has not ruled it out, sparking concerns over the condition of the country’s democratic legitimacy. 

This situation resembles the conditions in which the current president came into power over 10 years ago. His predecessor, Abdoulaye Wade, tried to secure a third term by claiming that his first term was exempted from the laws first implementing a limit on presidential terms in 2001. In 2012, Sall’s victory put an end to those plans. His win occurred in the spirit of a civil movement which pledged resistance against Wade’s regime and also sparked protest. Now, President Sall is using the same argument as his predecessor. Taking into consideration that the Senegalese elections are scheduled to take place in February, Sonko’s detention rules out a key rival for the president. Opposing voices claim that the judicial decision to punish the opposition leader is a purposeful attempt at eliminating the president’s fiercest opponent before any official campaign has even begun. However, this has been denied by the government.


Detention

Sonko is under house arrest in his home in Dakar. Sall acknowledged the protests and condemned “unprecedented violence” in his message earlier this week, but did not mention anything about Sonko nor about his personal plans of pursuing the presidency. Others who have expressed support for Sonko and tried to visit his house have also been detained. As a result of the protests, the government has cut out internet access across the country. Whatsapp and social media users have been unable to log into the respective platforms. Officially, this was done “to stop the dissemination of hate and subversive messages". Sonko currently remains “effectively under house arrest” and his supporters have warned that they will continue the fight for his release. 


Consequences for Citizens 

Since the most deadly days of the riots, the protests have been subdued and unrest has diminished. Despite the unrest reducing, the consequences for the citizens are still very much real. Few petrol stations have remained open “in fear of attack”, with many banks still remaining closed. Many citizens still have to queue for hours in order to withdraw their money. Demonstrations are economically unsustainable for many residents. Significant groups have been unable to go to work due to the scale and intensity of the demonstrations causing a security threat to their livelihoods. 


Tensions Likely to Rise Again

As long as President Sall does not rule it out, pursuing a third term remains an option on the table. He is expected to share a decision at the end of the month. One scenario is that he does not seek a third term but instead extends his current term to 2026, postponing the election by an additional two years. This option has been divisive and has not been met with the opposition’s approval. 

Internationally, Senegal has been celebrated for stability and democratic maturity in a region often tainted by political unrest. However, the detention of Ousmane Sonko is likely to be a heavily politicised event for both sides of the political spectrum. Opposition supporters are likely to return to the streets, as a lack of declaration from the president will only increase tensions in the build up to the elections. 


ZIMBABWE

On 31 May, the Zimbabwean government passed the ‘Patriotic Bill’, which raised concerns around further restrictions put on the opposition’s ability to campaign. Although the bill is yet to become law, it has already raised significant controversy due to the list of actions that are expected to become penalised on its merit. The Patriotic Bill prescribes punishment as harsh as the death penalty for “damaging the sovereignty and national interest of Zimbabwe”. 


Threat to Freedom of Expression

Human Rights groups have expressed concerns that the bill will criminalise Zimbabweans taking part in meetings outside of the country and that its “extraterritorial application” will have a significant effect on reducing civil society activities abroad. Other potential punishments for “anti-patriotic” behaviour could include prison sentences for up to 15 years, citizenship annulment, and banishment from taking part in elections. The opposition highlights how the bill could be used instrumentally in order to abuse the government’s authority and clamp down on opponents by impeding freedom of expression. It is deliberately broad and covers an unspecified scope of punishable offences. Human rights groups and opposition forces are worried how it can give the government additional instruments to penalise activism and civil society actions.


SIERRA LEONE

Sierra Leone will be holding its combined presidential, parliamentary, and local representative elections on 24 June. The vote will be a rematch of the 2018 elections where current president Julius Maada Bio beat opposition leader Samura Kamara by a narrow margin. President Bio will need over 55 per cent in the first round in order to secure his reelection without a second round. However, two political parties whose candidates together earned around 10 per cent of the votes five years ago are not fielding candidates in the upcoming elections, which could make the margin between Bio and Kamara even closer. 


Revision of Electoral Procedures

Changes were made to the parliamentary and local electoral system in 2022 with a district proportional representation system replacing the previous first-past-the-post process. The reform was controversial upon introduction, but was ultimately deemed legal by the Supreme Court. As a result, the new system favours the two main parties and increases the risk of smaller parties being swept out of parliament. Opposition has also been raising concerns around the voter registration process, which according to them disadvantages certain electorate groups and as a result could tip the vote in favour of the incumbent president. 


Kamara’s Court Case

Samura Kamara has been accused of mismanagement of public funds during his years as a foreign minister between 2012-2017. The court case first began in 2021 and has been extended for more than two years. The case will be heard in July, which according to critics is not coincidental and the slow pace is aimed at giving the opposition leader an additional distraction throughout the intensive campaigning period. 


Razor-thin Margins

The country already experienced protests in August of last year, which resulted in over 20 deaths. The manifestations were provoked by an increase in cost of living and an overall poor economic condition of the country. Although the scale of the protest is unlikely to repeat, clashes between supporters as well as the security agencies cannot be ruled out. With a highly contested election, grievances around electoral procedures and lack of economic stability are likely to generate high levels of tensions throughout the political spectrum. Four years ago, Julius Maada Bio beat Samura Kamara 43.3 per cent to 42.7 per cent in the first round, 51.8 per cent to 48.2 per cent in the second round. The razor-thin margins could become even thinner between the two candidates in the elections later this month.


Conclusion

Protests in Senegal have brought unrest to one of the most politically stable countries in the West African region. The detention of one the opposition’s most prominent politicians pushed his supporters out to the streets, yet the president’s lack of transparency around his potential bid for a third term further adds to the civil unrest. The protests serve as a reminder that when a realistic transition of power appears on the horizon, tensions can escalate regardless of the existing maturity of the democratic system. 

In many countries across the continent the incumbents hold an imbalanced level of influence over state structures, which deprive the opposition of a fair challenge. Zimbabwe serves as an example of a country where the government’s control of the legal and political sphere in reality minimises opportunities for a legitimate transition of power. The risk of these mechanisms leading to unfair elections remains high throughout the continent.

Elections Already Declared Rigged

Several African countries are struggling with insecurity as they prepare for elections this year. Backlashes against corruption and impunity are rising, with protestors facing oppression and violence. Opposition leaders and civil society activists are facing enormous challenges to have their voices heard. Unfortunately, the outlook on upcoming elections is grim as voting procedures are already being ruled as unfair.

ZIMBABWE

President Mnangagwa declared that he will announce the official date for the 2023 elections this week. Having an official date will conclude a lengthy period of speculation around the electoral calendar. Previously, the only piece of information known to the public has been an indication that the elections are likely to take place in July or August. As the official date will be announced, all sides of the political spectrum will begin an intensive campaigning period in the coming weeks.

One of the main axes of the existing campaign is the economic stability of the country. Zimbabwe has been facing high levels of inflation, poor economic performance and alarming level of food insecurity. The opposition's narrative is that the current regime is entrenched in corruption and that only a new government has the capability to stimulate a much needed economic upturn. The government claims that it has been able to guide the country through difficult economic decisions, which have yielded positive results and that they deserve another mandate to further promote growth and stability. The true scale of support for both the government as well as the opposition forces is unclear. However, fair democratic elections are unlikely due to the level of control President Mnangagwa’s allies have in the electoral process.


Audit Declares Zero Confidence

The Research and Advocacy Unit conducted an audit of pre-election procedures in the country and concluded that “there cannot be any confidence in the forthcoming elections” and that  “conditions for a free and fair election are absent”. The report highlights political influence on the electoral commission, restrictions on freedom of expression, and challenging registration procedures, especially for the opposition urban voter base as some of the main irregularities present in the current process. 

Controversial Procurement Law

President Mnangagwa is receiving backlash from opposition leaders and activists during his attempts to distance himself from a recent law passed that is aimed at concealing how taxpayers’ money is spent in the health ministry. “The notice published in the government gazette in early March declared that construction equipment and materials, biomedical and medical equipment, medicines and drugs, and vehicles – including ambulances – are among the list of items of national interest and shall not be publicly disclosed.” Civil society organisations were moving to challenge the law in court, declaring the statute as unconstitutional and demanding transparency. 

Mnangagwa claimed that the document was published without his approval, indicating an environment of “confusion” within the top levels of the government. “While further investigations are underway, the government wishes to advise the public that, on the instruction of His Excellency the President, the document in question has been rescinded as it has no standing at law, in policy and in terms of set government procedures. It thus should be disregarded,” stated Chief Secretary Misheck Sibanda. Concern is rising regarding the published law, causing worry that political leaders can act with “impunity”. According to political analyst Rashweat Mukundu, “What we are dealing with is a mafia that feels they are above the law that uses state power to abuse national resources. So regardless of the fact that this was withdrawn, the mere fact that someone sitting in a government office thought about this tells us of the level of the collapse of state management in this country.”

Military Intimidation

The military and intelligence forces have been heavily involved in controlling state structures, which has enabled them to informally campaign for the incumbent President. They have been accused of intimidating voters, preventing opposition candidates from campaigning in the government’s strongholds, heavily influencing the electoral bodies, and holding control of the electoral technological infrastructure. 

These elections do have the potential to cease ZANU-PF’s domination on Zimbabwean politics. Yet, the true scale of the opposition’s support will only become clear in the coming months. The election is likely to be closely contested. A recent poll based on 1,000 phone respondents has shown that currently opposition leader Nelson Chamisa is leading the incumbent President by over 10 per cent. However, these figures should be taken with extreme caution and cannot serve as any form of indication of what the final result will look like. The scale of the government’s interference in the electoral procedures as well as their ability to maximise outcomes in its rural base are likely to be key factors in the final results. With so much control over governmental instruments, a transition of power away from President Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF in a legitimate and democratic process is highly unlikely.

DRC

Attacks on Protestors

Security forces in the DRC have used tear gas to thwart anti-government demonstrators last week. Approximately 10 protesters have been detained, nearly 30 police officers were injured, and three policemen have been detained for using violence against a minor - an act which was condemned by the country’s human rights minister. The protest was called for by opposition leaders and people came out onto the streets in order to express their disapproval of reported infringements in voter registration for the 2023 December elections.

The opposition leaders have been accusing the government of not following constitutional procedures in appointing judges, nominating partisan members into the electoral commission and obstructing registration for voters in opposition stronghold regions. Grievances of the protesters were further exacerbated by the rising costs of living and lack of state control over the activities of militia groups in the east, where violence has been a significant threat to the security of citizens. The elections are about six months away and with a prevalent security crisis within its borders, electoral irregularities and reported ethnic discrimination of voters, tensions are likely to remain high throughout the campaign period. 

LIBERIA

Voter Registration Ended

Earlier this month, the Liberian National Elections Commission (NEC) ended its voter registration process. It was the first time the country used a biometric registration system in order to reduce the number of double registrations. However, the Elections Coordinating Committee (ECC) identified a number of irregularities that could impede the fairness of the democratic process. The NEC’s lack of consistency in conducting eligibility checks, as well as instances of voter trucking (the movement of voters to different locations in order to affect election results) and voter violence have all reduced the legitimacy of the procedures. 

The elections will take place on October 10th and due to Liberia’s strict requirement of 50 per cent majority means that the winner will most likely be chosen on the basis of their ability to build political alliances. Incumbent President Weah has been facing pressure due to accusations of corruption against senior allies, weak provision of public goods and services, and lack of adequate investment in the country’s infrastructure. However, he maintains a strong mandate from the ruling Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) party, especially in the face of a fragmented opposition. 

ANGOLA

President Cutting Russian Ties

President João Lourenço appears to be severing ties with Russia in order to deepen relations with the US. Lourenço is pushing for a meeting with President Joseph Biden this year in order to gain Western support as rumours are spreading that Lourenço is seeking a controversial third term. Lourenço stated in December that he wants the country to replace Russian military equipment with American, marking a significant development that could heighten US-Russian tensions in Africa as Angola is Russia’s fourth largest market for arms. 

Conclusion

Countries across the region are facing irregularities in their electoral processes. In the cases of Zimbabwe and the DRC, state mechanisms are creating an unfavourable environment for opposition groups. As a result, regardless of the true levels of support for the opposition, current governments hold significant levels of control over the electoral procedures. An indication that a transition of power in these countries is highly unlikely. Furthermore, state weakness continues to create a significant security risk in the DRC where the government’s inability to control militias in the eastern regions is likely to further exacerbate mistrust in the government. With the declaration that ‘free and fair’ elections are unlikely in some states, electoral violence is expected to be heightened and widespread.

From Floods to Acquittals: Examining Electoral Risks in the DRC and Zimbabwe

As the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe prepare for their upcoming elections, a myriad of challenges and events present significant electoral risks. From devastating floods, protests, insecurity and escalating ethnic violence to the exoneration of prominent novelists and court denials of postponement of elections, both countries navigate uncertain political landscapes. We examine the convergence of these factors and their potential impact on the electoral processes in the DRC and Zimbabwe.

DRC

Ethnic Violence Threatens DRC's Electoral Integrity

On April 24th,  the DRC's electoral commission concluded a nationwide initiative to update voter lists for the upcoming general elections in December 2023, as per a Human Rights Watch report released on May 9th. However, during the registration process, certain regions such as Goma, Bukavu, Nyagenzi, and Uvira in Eastern Congo saw violence and discrimination towards Banyamulenge, a Congolese Tutsi ethnic group from the South Kivu province. The incidents involved groups of youths who threatened, beat, and prevented the Banyamulenge from accessing registration centres. Human Rights Watch confirmed this information by speaking to the victims, witnesses, and community leaders, some of whom had experienced attacks by youth groups mobilised to defend their South Kivu localities against armed groups, including M23 rebels.

The increasing ethnic discrimination against Banyamulenge and Tutsi communities in Congo, particularly in the lead up to the December general elections, poses a significant threat to the country's stability and democratic process. The violence and discrimination towards these groups may lead to an uneven distribution of votes and hinder other national processes such as the population census and identification process. The continued appeal to ethnic prejudices by the parties to the conflict also suggests that this issue may persist even after the elections. Therefore, it is imperative that Congolese authorities take decisive action to prevent ethnic-based discrimination, including conducting comprehensive voter education campaigns and prosecuting individuals who commit ethnically motivated harassment and attacks. Failure to address these issues could lead to further instability and violence in the DRC.

Deadly Flooding Casts Shadow on Upcoming Elections

As of May 7th, the governor of South Kivu province, Theo Ngwabidje Kasi, announced that the death toll from flooding and landslides in the DRC has increased to at least 401. This figure marks a significant rise from the previous reports, which stated that the fatalities had reached 176, and many people were missing as rescue workers searched for victims. The flooding occurred when heavy rainfall caused rivers to overflow, resulting in 205 individuals sustaining severe injuries. Unfortunately, 167 individuals remain unaccounted for, adding to the gravity of the situation. These events could have potential implications for the political landscape of the country, especially with the general elections scheduled for December 2023. The current situation may hinder the government's ability to conduct voter registration and other necessary activities, as the authorities may be more preoccupied with disaster response efforts. Additionally, the flooding could lead to displacement and relocation of people, which could affect the allocation of voting resources and could potentially lead to accusations of voter fraud or suppression. The government must prioritise disaster response efforts and ensure that they do not impede the electoral process, as an effective response to the crisis is crucial in maintaining public trust and credibility in the upcoming election.

Protest Postponement Raises Concerns for Elections

On May 13, political activists associated with the Commitment for Citizenship and Development (ECIDE), Together for the Republic, Leadership and Governance for Development (LGD), and the All Volunteers for the Recovery of the DRC (ENVOL) planned a protest march in Kinshasa to condemn the insecurity in the eastern regions, high cost of living, and an alleged disorderly electoral process. However, due to concerns expressed by authorities regarding the demonstration's security, the organisers decided to postpone it until May 20. The postponement may indicate the organisers' willingness to cooperate with authorities to ensure public safety. However,  it could also have implications for the upcoming general elections, particularly if the march leads to significant demonstrations and violence, further destabilising the political landscape. This could have lasting consequences for the democratic process. It is therefore crucial to monitor the situation carefully and ensure that the protest remains peaceful and does not escalate into a full-blown political crisis.

President Accuses East African Forces of Colluding with M23 Rebels

On his visit to Botswana on May 9th, President Felix Tshisekedi accused the East African forces currently deployed in the DRC of colluding with rebels. The President expressed concerns about the East African Community (EAC) regional force's capability to fight M23 rebels in the eastern part of the DRC and alleged that the forces have cohabited with terrorists, which was not part of the original plan. Although Tshisekedi did not provide details of the collusion, he stated that his administration had to reevaluate its approach to the situation in the east. The President  also expressed his reservations about Kenya's decision to replace the commander of the regional forces without consulting the DRC's authorities. These allegations may have implications for the region's security and potentially destabilise the upcoming general elections in December. The accusations could further exacerbate existing tensions and divisions, potentially leading to violence and impeding the electoral process. Furthermore, these allegations could heighten mistrust between the DRC and its East African neighbours, which could have wider implications for regional cooperation and stability. As such, it is crucial to closely monitor the situation and take steps to mitigate any potential risks to the electoral process and regional security.

ZIMBABWE

Constitutional Court Denies Request to Postpone Elections

The Constitutional Court (CC) denied the request made by the former Zimbabwean main opposition party, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), to postpone the elections on May 8th. The MDC had challenged the delimitation report of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) in February, alleging that it was biassed towards the ruling party, ZANU-PF. Delimitation involves dividing a country into constituencies and wards for election purposes, and when it is unfairly drawn to favour a political party, it is referred to as "gerrymandering". However, the Constitutional Court ruled against the MDC, stating that they had not presented sufficient evidence to prove the violation of fundamental rights or demonstrate how the demarcation of constituencies had affected those rights. The court also asserted that the case was outside its jurisdiction. The objective of the MDC's case was to postpone the upcoming presidential and legislative elections until new voting boundaries were reviewed. Nevertheless, the Constitutional Court ultimately decided to proceed with the elections as scheduled between July and August, disregarding the opposition party's efforts.

The ruling in favour of the ZEC has the potential to trigger allegations of a biassed electoral process, which, in turn, may escalate political tensions and destabilise the country. The MDC is expected to appeal the ruling and take the case to a lower court. This could lead to prolonged legal proceedings, exacerbating uncertainty surrounding the electoral process. Furthermore, ZEC's credibility to conduct free and fair elections will be called into question, further undermining confidence in the electoral system. It is crucial to closely monitor the situation and ensure that the elections are conducted with transparency, fairness, and peace to avert any adverse repercussions.

Acquittal of Renowned Novelists Places Zimbabwe's Political Activism Under the Spotlight

Renowned Zimbabwean filmmaker and novelist Tsitsi Dangarembga has been exonerated by the country's High Court of orchestrating an anti-government one man protest, which occurred in the year 2020 as per 8 May reports. Initially, Dangarembga had been handed a six-month suspended jail sentence and a fine after being found guilty of intent to incite public violence. However, following her acquittal on Monday, her lawyer, Harrison Nkomo, confirmed that she was absolved of the charge. Nkomo expressed gratitude to the court for acknowledging that Dangarembga had not committed any offence. 

The lower court had earlier found Dangarembga guilty of participating in a public gathering with the intent to incite public violence, while simultaneously breaking COVID-19 protocols. However, the High Court judges did not provide any immediate reasons for the acquittal. Dangarembga, who is known for her vocal stance against corruption in Zimbabwe, has been fighting for reforms and advocating for the right to demonstrate for years. Notwithstanding, Zimbabwean courts have been handing down strict sentences to political activists leading up to the general elections this year. Opponents and activists have also accused the police of quelling dissent. For instance, Jacob Ngarivhume, an opposition leader who was apprehended alongside Dangarembga for organising protests, was recently sentenced to four years in jail on charges of inciting violence.

Based on the information provided, the exoneration of Tsitsi Dangarembga from charges of inciting public violence could embolden other political activists to engage in protests or other forms of dissent, which could lead to increased political unrest and instability in the country. However, given the harsh sentences handed down by Zimbabwean courts in recent times, it is more likely that activists may be deterred from engaging in protests or other forms of dissent. Moreover, the police's reported suppression of dissent may further contribute to activists' hesitation to engage in protests or other forms of dissent. Ultimately, the impact of Dangarembga's exoneration on the electoral processes in Zimbabwe remains to be seen, and it is essential to keep an eye on the situation in the country in the lead-up to the general elections.

Conclusion

The DRC faces significant challenges with protests, ethnic violence, and natural disasters that could impact the electoral landscape. The discriminatory incidents against the Banyamulenge community and the government's response to flooding highlight the potential disruption to voter registration and resource allocation. Furthermore, allegations of collusion between East African forces and rebels add another layer of complexity to the political stability of the country. In Zimbabwe, the exoneration of Tsitsi Dangarembga may inspire other activists, but the harsh sentencing of political dissidents and reports of suppression by the police could discourage widespread protests. It is crucial to closely monitor these developments and their repercussions to ensure fair and peaceful elections while mitigating potential risks to stability and democratic practices in both countries. 

Africa's Electoral Rollercoaster: Top Highlights and Challenges of the Last Two Weeks

Over the last two weeks, Africa's electoral landscape has witnessed a flurry of developments, ranging from humanitarian crises to political instability. The chance of any fair election in Sudan is at a standstill amid a growing humanitarian crisis, while South Sudan's fragile peace process could be threatened by potential spillover violence from Sudan. In Libya, a positive step forward was taken with the pledge by security and military factions to secure the electoral process, but concerns remain regarding weapon smuggling and the presence of mercenaries. 

In Zimbabwe, the conviction and incarceration of an opposition party leader has raised concerns about the country's political climate. Meanwhile, Sierra Leone's upcoming presidential elections are shaping up to be highly competitive, with the defections of prominent opposition politicians to the ruling party and the adjournment of main opposition leader Dr. Samura Kamara's corruption trial until after the elections. As we continue our Election Watch series, these developments will be crucial in assessing the political risk and business implications for investors and other stakeholders.

April 17 - May 1

SUDAN

Worsening risks for displaced Sudanese civilians as fighting persists

As per 28 April reports, millions of Sudanese are currently facing severe food shortages, heightened health hazards, and preventable fatalities as the United Nations (UN) agencies have been compelled to halt their "life-saving" operations in Sudan. The ongoing violence has created an extremely hazardous environment, making it impossible for them to operate.

Sudan and its neighboring countries have endured decades of scarcity, suffering, and unrest. Even before the conflict between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Response Forces (RRF) erupted on 15 April, Sudan had already been hosting over 4 million displaced persons.

The escalating humanitarian crisis in Sudan, exacerbated by the recent suspension of UN agencies' "life-saving activities", may have significant implications for the upcoming elections. With millions of Sudanese facing severe hunger and heightened health risks, it is unlikely that the government can ensure a safe and fair election process. Moreover, the displacement of over 4 million people, even before the current conflict, raises concerns about the integrity of the electoral rolls and the potential exclusion of vulnerable communities.

The ongoing violence and the inability of UN agencies to operate further complicate the election process, as the government must ensure that all eligible voters can participate safely and freely. If the situation worsens, it will not be feasible to hold an election. Additionally, the lack of access to healthcare and other basic needs for displaced individuals may fuel further unrest and instability in the country, making it challenging for the government to guarantee a peaceful and democratic transition of power.

SOUTH SUDAN

Authorities express concern over continued violence in Sudan

According to 29 April reports, the South Sudanese government has voiced significant apprehension regarding the ongoing hostilities in Sudan. Major General Charles Machieng Kuol, a high-ranking military officer in South Sudan, expressed concern about the possible repercussions of an extended conflict and stressed the importance of stability in the area. He stated that his country has already deployed troops along the borders in order to safeguard them. Kuol underscored the country's preparedness to prevent the war from spilling over and escalating within South Sudan.

The ongoing fighting in Sudan poses a significant political and business risk for South Sudan, particularly as the country prepares for upcoming elections. Given the historical conflict and interdependent relationship between the two nations, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan could "easily spill over" into South Sudan, jeopardising the country's fragile peace process and potentially derailing the election. This situation requires urgent attention and strategic planning to mitigate potential negative impacts on businesses and political stability in the region. 

Businesses operating in South Sudan must implement comprehensive risk management strategies and contingency plans to manage the potential disruptions caused by the conflict. Similarly, the government of South Sudan must continue to implement the necessary measures to protect its citizens and safeguard the pending election process from external influence. Failure to address this issue proactively and strategically could have severe consequences for the stability of South Sudan and its future prospects.

LIBYA

Libyan security and military  factions pledge to secure elections

The UN Envoy to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, announced on 18 April that he had successfully negotiated with the security and military factions in Libya to ensure the safety and security of the forthcoming electoral process during a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) briefing. Bathily affirmed that all factions in the country expressed their commitment to meet the necessary criteria for holding elections. He secured a pledge from security and military factions to renounce violence, release detainees, and ensure an all-encompassing national reconciliation. 

The early success of Abdoulaye Bathily's negotiations and the full commitment of the security and military factions in Libya has the potential to significantly contribute to a peaceful and democratic electoral process. The pledge to reject the use of violence, release prisoners, and promote national reconciliation is a crucial step towards the creation of a stable and inclusive political environment. If the parties continue to follow through on their commitments, the elections would be held under favourable circumstances that could increase public trust and participation in the democratic process.

However, if the security and military factions fail to fulfil their commitments, the electoral process could be marred by violence, insecurity, and intimidation. Failure to release more prisoners and promote national reconciliation could further deepen political divisions and create a hostile environment that undermines the credibility and legitimacy of the electoral process. The failure to provide a secure environment for the polls could lead to low voter turnout and further undermine the already fragile political stability in the country.

Weapon smuggling in Libya threatens stability

In April 18 reports, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US Representative to the Security Council, voiced her worries about the resurgence of conflict in Libya caused by unhindered arms trafficking. She called upon the 6+6 committee to assist the United Nations' initiatives and stressed the urgency of promptly tackling any obstacles that could hinder the forthcoming elections. Among these obstacles, Thomas-Greenfield highlighted the security threat posed by the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Libya.

If arms trafficking in Libya is not effectively addressed, it could have a significant impact on the security of the electoral process. The proliferation of weapons would create an environment of insecurity and potentially increase the likelihood of violence during the election. This could further impede the electoral process and undermine the legitimacy of the elected government. Additionally, if armed groups are able to continue acquiring weapons, they could potentially use them to challenge the authority of the government and destabilise the country. It is crucial that steps are taken to prevent arms trafficking and ensure the safety and security of the Libyan people during the upcoming elections.

ZIMBABWE

Opposition leader convicted for organising anti-corruption protests

The leader of the opposition party Transform Zimbabwe, Jacob Ngarivhume, was convicted on 28 April for organising and leading anti-corruption protests that took place in July 2020. He has been sentenced to a four-year prison term, with one year suspended and no option for bail. Amnesty International's Interim Deputy Regional Director, Vongai Chikwanda, has called upon the Zimbabwean authorities to overturn Jacob Ngarivhume's conviction and sentence, arguing that the organisation of the protests was based on his right to free expression and peaceful assembly.

Amnesty International's (AI) request for the reversal of the conviction highlights a high political and business risk environment for Zimbabwe. The conviction may be perceived as an attempt to suppress opposition voices and dissent, thereby creating a hostile environment for political and social activism. Such an action could also undermine the credibility and integrity of the upcoming elections. It is therefore imperative for the authorities to reconsider their decision (as per AI recommendations) in order to prevent further escalation of political tensions in the country. This arrest and subsequent conviction may intimidate opposition parties and supporters, thus limiting their ability to campaign freely and impacting the overall fairness of the electoral process. Additionally, the sentencing of Jacob Ngarivhume further raises concerns about the rule of law and the potential weaponization of the judiciary system to settle political scores.

SIERRE LEONE

Opposition Leaders Join Forces with Ruling Party Ahead of Presidential Polls

According to 26 April reports,  several opposition politicians, including Dr. Kandeh Yumkella, the parliamentary leader of the National Grand Coalition (NGC) party, and Saa Emerson Lamina, the parliamentary leader of the Coalition for Change (C4C), along with two of his eight C4C parliamentarians, defected and declared their support for President Julius Maada Bio's Sierra Leone Peoples Party (SLPP) before the presidential polls. Dr. Kandeh Yumkella's support for President Julius Maada Bio is of significant importance as it potentially brings 170,000 votes that the NGC party won in the 2018 election, thereby boosting SLPP's votes.

These defections resemble Charles Margai's political breakaway in 2007, where he left the SLPP to form the People's Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC). However, despite Margai's 2007 success in helping President Ernest Bai Koroma rise to power, PMDC's sudden rise came at the expense of a disunited and fragmented SLPP, with most PMDC supporters returning to the SLPP or joining the All People's Congress (APC) party by 2012. The current defections raise questions about whether history is repeating itself, and if so, what lessons can be learned for Yumkella and his NGC, as well as Sahr Lamina and his C4C. 

While it may be difficult to predict the exact outcome of the presidential polls in Sierra Leone due to the current political climate, the defections of prominent opposition politicians to the ruling party could give the SLPP a significant advantage in the elections, resulting in their political irrelevance in the long run. However, this move may also lead to the creation of new opposition parties or alliances, which may ramp up electoral competition in the next electoral cycle. The defection of Yumkella and Lamina to the ruling party has undoubtedly increased President Julius Maada Bio's chances of winning the election. Nevertheless, other smaller parties' roles cannot be ignored as they could also influence the election's outcome. The opposition parties may create new alliances or coalitions to counterbalance the SLPP's advantage, resulting in a more intense and competitive election. The weeks ahead are critical and require close monitoring to identify any further political negotiations leading up to the June 24th presidential elections.

Opposition Leader's Corruption Trial Suspended Until After Presidential Election
The hearing against Dr. Samura Kamara, the presidential candidate and leader of the main opposition party the All People's Congress (APC), and five others by Sierra Leone's Anti-Corruption Commission was scheduled for 29 April but has been suspended until 14 July. This is nearly three weeks after the presidential and general elections scheduled for June 24th. The APC's National Publicity Secretary, Sidi Yahya Tunis, expressed relief at the decision and stated that the party would utilise the extra time to communicate more effectively with the electorate.

Many observers and analysts following the case believe that the trial is politically motivated and intended to derail Dr. Samura Kamara's candidacy against the incumbent President Julius Maada Bio. Senior lawyer and former Ombudsman Francis Gabbidon is among those who have publicly expressed the opinion that the case is unjustified and politically motivated, a sentiment shared by other legal practitioners and public servants. Dr. Samura Kamara's perceived chances of winning the presidency make the impact of the suspended trial on the upcoming election significant. With the trial postponed until after the election, it may become a referendum on Kamara's innocence. The more than two-years case and the allegations of political motivation may raise concerns of a compromised judicial system, potentially affecting public confidence in the government's ability to uphold the rule of law. It remains to be seen how voters will view the trial's postponement and whether it will positively or negatively affect the APC's chances of winning the presidency.

Conclusion

As Africa prepares for a series of elections, it is evident that several challenges and opportunities lie ahead. It is essential that proactive measures are taken to address the challenges facing the region's electoral processes and safeguard the integrity and legitimacy of the electoral outcomes. By doing so, African nations can set the pace for peaceful, inclusive, and democratic governance, setting the foundation for sustainable development and progress. 

Election Risks in the Shadow of Conflict and Legal Weaponisation

Introduction

In this week's Election Watch series, we will analyse the potential impacts of armed conflicts, states of emergency, and the weaponisation of the legal system on the upcoming presidential elections. Recent developments indicate a resurgence of military attacks in Sudan, ongoing armed rebel attacks in the DRC, and the extension of a state of emergency in Togo due to persistent armed rebel attacks. In Zimbabwe, reports indicate that there is a high probability of the Electoral Bill being finalised. If passed, this bill may result in the disqualification of numerous opposition leaders from running in the upcoming election, highlighting the continued weaponisation of the legal system. As we closely monitor these events, it is crucial to assess their potential effects on the democratic process

Sudan

Army and Paramilitary clash in Khartoum.

Intense fighting broke out on April 15th in Khartoum between Sudan's national army and paramilitary forces, resulting in the death of almost 100 people and injuries to hundreds of others. The fighting has spread to nearby cities, including Omdurman and Bahri, and has persisted for two days, with no signs of either side backing down. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have called for an immediate end to hostilities, but their calls have been ignored.

The conflict stems from a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the national military, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), over how the paramilitary forces should be incorporated into the military and who should oversee the process. This disagreement has persisted since the 2021 "failed coup attempt" and has further delayed Sudan's transition to a democratically elected government.

Despite the army's declaration that "the hour of victory is near," the situation remains uncertain, and the possibility of a civil war cannot be ruled out. The military's stance of not negotiating with the RSF until they are dismantled indicates a winner-takes-all approach that is not conducive to a peaceful resolution. International and regional intervention may be necessary to halt the fighting and resume negotiations. However, the international community's willingness to provide such intervention may be limited due to potential resource constraints and the recent killing of international workers in the ongoing fight.

As the conflict continues, the level of violence against civilians is likely to increase, and the goal of holding democratic elections this year seems unattainable. The situation is currently uncertain and expected to remain so as both sides are anticipated to release statements that support their respective positions, contributing to the fluidity of the situation.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Ethnic rebel attacks surge in the Eastern Congo

Dieudonne Lossa, the president of a civil society group in Banyari Kilo, reported that on April 15th, the CODECO ethnic Lendu armed group killed more than 42 individuals in Ituri Province. Ethnic-related attacks between the Lendu militia groups and Hema ethnic self-defence groups have been ongoing since 2017, but recent reports show a sudden surge in such attacks. The increase in ethnic-related violence in Eastern Congo worsens the displacement of communities, depriving them of meaningful participation in electoral processes.

Security concerns in the DRC persist, despite the withdrawal of the March Movement (M23) rebel group from some parts of the North Kivu province, with countless local disputes arising from clashes over natural resources. As long as these disputes remain unresolved, ethnic-related armed attacks will persist, resulting in increased personal insecurity. The pending election is likely to attract communities that have some level of peace and security, while those in areas mostly affected by rebel attacks will have restricted participation due to displacement. The conduct of democratic processes, such as voting, will remain exclusionary as long as armed attacks continue in certain regions, limiting the participation of displaced communities.

Togo

State of emergency extended in Togo

On April 6th, the Togo parliament voted to extend the state of security emergency in the Savanes region for an additional 12 months due to an increase in terrorist attacks near the Northern border. President Faure Gnassingbé's initial state of emergency, approved in June 2022, ended on March 13th, 2023, but is now further extended. Since November 2021, the Northern region of Togo has been prone to rebel group attacks, with jihadist groups having control over substantial areas in the region. However, the prolonged state of emergency may jeopardize civil liberties, especially during the forthcoming elections, and the risk of violence against voters, election observers, and workers is high. In some cases, governments may misuse their emergency powers to aim at political rivals, control the press, or reduce access to information, resulting in a reduction of people's freedoms. This endangers the democratic process and may lead to lower electoral participation. Additionally, rebel groups may intimidate voters to influence the election outcome. Despite the state of emergency being extended to counter rebel groups' incursions and restore security, it reduces comprehensive electoral participation. The re-establishment of the state of emergency in the Northern region after a brief lapse between March 13th and the first week of April 2023 highlights a likely persistence of insecurity in the medium to long term, as jihadist groups occupy vast areas in the Northern region. Unless this control is weakened or eliminated, the electoral process carried out will likely be symbolic and exclusionary, with fewer people participating due to the higher personal security risk.

Zimbabwe

Electoral Amendment Bill a Priority in Parliament

On April 14th, the Minister of Justice, Ziyambi Ziyambi, announced the government's intention to prioritise the passing and implementation of the Electoral Amendment Bill for the upcoming elections. If passed, the bill would disqualify individuals with recent convictions for crimes of dishonesty or those with pending criminal cases from running for office. However, critics argue that the bill may be unconstitutional and biased against opposition members, such as Job Sikhala, who has been held without trial for over 275 days, as the state maintains that he is accused of “inciting public violence.” If the Electoral Amendment Bill passes without revisions, it may exclude approximately 14 other opposition leaders with pending criminal cases, which could have negative implications for the democratic process and exacerbate the legitimacy crisis of the ruling party. The recent increase in arrests of leaders and members of the Citizens for Coalition Change (CCC) has been criticized as a legal weaponisation strategy aimed at intimidating political opponents and further restricting the democratic space for opposition voices.

Conclusion

The upcoming presidential elections in various African countries are at risk of being undermined by armed conflicts, states of emergency, and the weaponisation of the legal system. In Sudan, the ongoing fighting between the national army and paramilitary forces may escalate into a civil war, making it impossible to hold democratic elections in the short to medium term. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, ethnic-related attacks continue to worsen the displacement of communities, depriving them of meaningful participation in electoral processes. In Togo, the prolonged state of emergency reduces comprehensive electoral participation, and the risk of violence against voters, election observers, and workers is high. In Zimbabwe, if passed, the Electoral Amendment Bill may disqualify several opposition leaders from participating in the election, further highlighting the continued weaponisation of the legal system.

African Elections 2023-2024 Series

As we commence the second quarter of 2023, it is evident that the African continent is set for a significant election year as 29 countries are scheduled to hold national elections. Among them are Zimbabwe, Sudan, Somaliland, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Libya, Gabon, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Given the political and security implications of such an election cycle, it is imperative to keep a close watch on the evolving situation in each country. The recent Nigerian election has brought to light the potential for electoral disputes in countries lacking electoral reforms and an environment not conducive to conducting free and fair elections. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor political and security developments that may affect businesses, individuals, and international organisations operating in these regions.

Reports from 1st of April to the 9th of April

DRC

Protesters challenge discriminatory 'Congoleseness' bill

On 4 April, members of the Association of Mestizos in the Congo (Asmeco) protested against a discriminatory bill, named the "Tshiani law", outside of the Parliament building. This bill seeks to prevent those with mixed nationality parentage from holding top senior political office. If passed, opposition presidential candidates, such as Moïse Katumbi, would be disqualified from the December presidential race because his father was Greek. If implemented, the law would delegitimize the election and lead to unrest in the coming months, as it would exclude political leaders who do not pass the Congolese purity test. This development presents a significant political risk as it could lead to social and political tensions, undermining the country's democratic stability.

Militant attacks kill dozens in Ituri Province

At least 30 people were killed by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group between 2 and 3 April, in the Ituri province in the Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). 

The region is suffering from continuous militant attacks by various rebel groups, including the foreign ADF, which has been active in the eastern DRC for decades. These attacks exacerbate the already high level of displacement and security risks in the region, where attacks on civilians are commonplace. With the state of siege in place and restrictions on movement, armed attacks are expected to impede electoral participation ahead of the December presidential elections. This situation poses a serious political risk as it raises concerns about the government's ability to maintain security and ensure fair elections.

Gabon

New presidential term limits enacted

The Gabonese National Assembly and Senate reportedly amended the country's constitution on 6 April by decreasing the presidential term limits from seven years to five and adopting a one round ballot system. Some within the opposition ranks have condemned the adoption of the one round ballot system as a ploy to keep the incumbent President Ali Mbongo Ondimba in power, although he is yet to declare his candidacy for the upcoming election. With the reduction in presidential term limits and the adoption of a one round ballot system, the upcoming election in Gabon could lead to further political instability if the opposition is dissatisfied with the outcome.The lack of unity among opposition parties may also lead to a weaker opposition movement, further strengthening the incumbent's position, and potentially increasing tensions between opposing factions.

Libya

Human Rights Watch urges anti-cybercrime law repeal

On April 3rd, Human Rights Watch (HRW) urged for the nullification of the anti-cybercrime legislation and the release of those incarcerated for violating the law. The anti-cybercrime act, which was enacted in September 2022, has been abused to carry out targeted arrests. In February 2023, security forces apprehended a singer in eastern Libya for allegedly violating the anti-cybercrime act by "subverting public order and morals".  The law's second article aims to protect "public order and morals", but it lacks a specific meaning of these terms, making it simple to exploit the legislation to silence government critics. Without freedom of expression, it will be impossible to hold free and fair elections. Thus, in the next few months there will likely be an increase in the arrest of government dissenters if the anti-cybercrime act is not repealed.

Madagascar

Public protest ban ahead of presidential elections

Madagascar's government has prohibited "public protests" ahead of the November presidential elections, as reported by Radio France International (RFI) on 3 April. The ban extends to all political parties and government officials, with the exception of the executive branch, which may still hold public political gatherings. President Andry Rajoelina is expected to seek reelection. The government's blanket ban on all public protests is a direct assault on freedom of expression and a blatant disregard for democracy, which will likely fuel opposition and provoke protests across the country in the near to medium term.

Sierra Leone

Regulatory commission bans political parades

On 3 April, the Political Parties Regulatory Commission in Sierra Leone announced a ban on political parties before the June presidential election. The decision aims to encourage informed electoral choices by discouraging "street" festivities. Both the ruling Sierra Leone People's  Party (SLPP) and the opposition All People's Congress (APC) traditionally hold public, political parades in the lead-up to elections, but the Commission's spokesperson Lucien Momoh notes that this ban seeks to promote peace, in contrast to previous cycles marked by violence and intolerance. By prohibiting  political parades, the electoral cycle is expected to be less violent than previous elections.

Somaliland

President pledges to end armed-conflict

On 3 April, reports indicated that President Muse Bihi pledged to resolve the LasAnod conflict via peaceful dialogue. For the past three months, armed conflict has raged in LasAnod due to its aspiration to reunite with Somalia. Failure to resolve this conflict could impede the electoral process by restricting freedom of movement in the region, preventing effective participation in the election. This may raise questions regarding legitimacy, particularly from a region that seeks to reunite with Somalia rather than remain part of Somaliland.

Sudan

Protests erupt over delayed civilian government deal

On 7 April, hundreds of protestors in Khartoum demonstrated their frustration over the military authority's continued delay in implementing a long-awaited civilian government agreement. Despite security personnel's swift use of stun grenades and tear gas to disperse the protests, more demonstrations and confrontations are anticipated in the following weeks if a transitional civilian government is not established to facilitate a free and fair election. Unless a negotiated settlement is reached that satisfies the demands for a fully-fledged civilian government, the country will likely remain in a state of turmoil.

Zimbabwe

Opposition spokesperson's conviction increases crackdown fears

According to Amnesty International Deputy Director Flavia Mwangovya, Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) spokesperson Fadzai Mahere was convicted on 5 April for "communicating falsehoods" under a devoid legal provision as declared by the Constitutional Court in 2014. This conviction has exacerbated concerns regarding the growing crackdown on freedom of expression in Zimbabwe. As a result of her conviction and in accordance with the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, 2022, Fadzai Mahere may be ineligible to run for public office in the upcoming elections, as legislators and councilors who are convicted of "crimes of dishonesty" within 12 months prior to the date of candidate nomination are disqualified. Despite avoiding a 20-year prison sentence, the $500 fine levied against her has sparked alarms and a conversation around the application of Zimbabwean laws. By using a non-existent law to secure the conviction of an opposition spokesperson, the authorities appear to be weaponizing the legal system to silence political adversaries. As a result, it is likely that the run-up to the election will be fraught with numerous instances of crackdowns on critics and intimidation tactics.

Who is at the Helm of Zanu-PF & the Future of Zimbabwe?

Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s former Prime Minister from 1980 to 1987 and President from 1987 to 2017, collectively ruled the country for a period of nearly four decades since independence. Under his rule, which has been described as governing with an iron fist, Zimbabwe underwent tremendous changes. Mugabe was forced out of power in November 2017 with current Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa at the helm of Zanu-PF leadership and Zimbabwe. 

The events that led up to Mnangagwa gaining leadership of the country were preceded by what may be described as a coup, although the military that placed Mugabe under house arrest stated that it was not a military takeover of the government, Mugabe was still the country’s commander in chief. Their main aim was to target “criminals” that surrounded Mugabe and who were deemed responsible for the country’s economic decline. These accused criminals included members of Mugabe’s cabinet, prominent G40 leaders, and supporters of his wife Grace, who had started infiltrating Zimbabwean politics, seeking to gain power and leadership and oust the opposition.

The military also opposed Grace Mugabe’s underhanded tactics to gain a quick ascension to political power. Such tactics included becoming head of Zanu-PF’s Women’s League after she sought to enter politics more actively in 2014 and become Mugabe’s successor, whilst gaining support from the G40 and the Youth League. Despite receiving the nomination to head the Women’s League, she does not come from a background of independence struggle and has also not gone through grassroots levels, as stipulated by the party’s constitution.

Prior to these events, Mnangagwa was fired as Vice President in 2017 after Mugabe accused him of plotting to take power from him. However, on 24 November 2017, Mugabe submitted his resignation as President just as impeachment proceedings would be held against him. As such, Mnangagwa succeeded Mugabe and took on the role of President of Zimbabwe. 

In the general elections that followed in 2018, Mnangagwa maintained his position as Zimbabwe’s president. Nicknamed the “crocodile,” Mnangagwa’s leadership does not appear to diverge much from Mugabe’s reign. His promises have included job creation (Zimbabwe’s current unemployment rate is estimated to range from around 5% to figures that go in the upper tens of the percentile, depending on whether one includes informal employment as well) and compensation for those who had their land seized by the government in the past. Other promises have included fair, democratic elections, as well as financial stability. 

However, the results on the ground paint a different picture. Since Mnangagwa came to power in 2018, over one million Zimbabweans have fled the country owing to a plethora of reasons, among which include rising inflation and unemployment. 

Other Mugabe-era challenges that prevail to this day include corruption, nepotism, and intimidation. This is despite the fact that when he came to power he promised that he would seek to open up to economic reforms and rekindle ties with foreign investors and the international community. Prior to this, the international community had largely shunned Zimbabwe under Mugabe’s leadership. 

Given the fact that Mugabe and Mnangagwa served so closely together for decades, and their credentials as independence heroes in the country, it does not appear that Mnangagwa will keep his promises. Old, underhanded tactics to destabilise the opposition, such as limiting their right to assemble and hold peaceful meetings, arresting and detaining opposition members, and the police using force against them, continue to be used to this day. 

Mnangagwa’s history is a chequered one. He was arrested for his role in blowing up a Rhodesian train in the pre-independence struggle and was sentenced to death. However, his young age then prevented him from getting the death penalty and he instead served out a 10-year prison sentence. 

After his release, he entered politics and served in the Central Intelligence Office in various ministries and ministerial roles, culminating in the role as Vice President just before Mugabe resigned. He has also been accused of being a part of orchestrating a genocide in which over 20,000 people were killed in the 1980s, although he has denied any involvement and wrongdoing. The genocide or massacre, also referred to as Gukurahundi, took place from 1983 to 1987 and targeted Ndebele civilians by the Fifth Brigade of the Zimbabwe National Army. At that time, Mnangagwa was the Minister of State for National Security. The wounds of the past remain with many Zimbabweans to this day and they are a cause of deep resentment and frustration.

Regarding the upcoming 2023 elections, Mnangagwa is highly unlikely to release his grip on power and old tactics used during the Mugabe regime of stifling the opposition are likely to remain. He is highly likely to mobilise all the instruments he has at his disposal, including the army and police, to break up and prevent opposition rallies. Further challenges include the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission’s (ZEC’s) close ties with the ruling party and its unwillingness to share voters’ rolls in time for open inspection, amongst multiple other grievances the opposition has raised against the ZEC. As such, the electoral process is likely to feel unfair to many in the opposition and the people on the ground. Human rights violations are also expected to continue as opposition parties attempt to garner support. Therefore, despite being a democracy on paper, Zimbabwe is not expected to experience fair and democratic elections. 

However, in the first post-Mugabe elections in 2018, many Zimbabweans were hopeful and optimistic about change in the country. Unfortunately, political, social, and economic change appears unlikely if Mnangagwa remains at the helm of Zimbabwe. With a focus on cementing his power and retaining the status quo, it will be difficult for the opposition to break through the long-established institutions that appear to favour Mnanagagwa and Zanu-PF. 

Mnangagwa was recently endorsed as Zanu-PF’s presidential candidate and despite talking left, and walking right, his rhetoric for reform is unlikely to come to fruition. The opposition will have a long road ahead and many challenges to overcome in trying to secure seats in the National Assembly. At the very least, once they gain even a small foothold in Parliament they need to remain vigilant and act as watchdogs over Zanu-PF’s actions in an attempt to keep the party and its leadership accountable, in terms of the broadly outlined roles and duties of an opposition party in the National Assembly. However, with the deep entrenchment of Zanu-PF’s power, acting as a watchdog will not be enough. This is especially the case if the opposition does not secure a sufficient number of seats. Working together with civil society could help the opposition strengthen its voice and impact. However, due to the numerous limitations placed on civil society in Zimbabwe and Zanu-PF’s “unfriendly” and sceptical attitude toward NGOs that are foreign funded, this role is likely to have limited impact. 

Despite much talk about democracy and following democratic processes by Zanu-PF, the 2023 elections are likely to be a democratically superficial act. The opposition will face significant resistance from Zanu-PF and its deeply entrenched organs of state in terms of being able to campaign and canvass to gain voter support. As such, the opposition, while it has the potential to play a crucial role in Zimbabwean politics, is expected to face an uphill battle through continued arrests of its members, possible protests, and basic rights abuses carried out by police and security forces. Although the 2023 elections might ensure procedural accuracy, there are unlikely to be any significant developments in the substance of the political fabric of Zimbabwe in that no meaningful change is expected to take place.   

Hope for Change or Much of the Same?

The by-elections that were held in Zimbabwe earlier this year were a signal that change is on the horizon. With the CCC led by Nelson Chamisa scooping up many of the seats formerly being held by Zanu-PF members, hope for change in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) country has been expressed. But how much of this hope is well-grounded? Not much, if one looks at the history of Zanu-PF’s tactics of intimidation and violence during election periods, particularly when it comes to opposition parties attempting to gather, let alone express opposition to Zanu-PF.

Since 1980 when Zimbabwe gained independence, Zanu-PF has been the ruling party of the country; retaining leadership over politics for the past 32 years. Some maintain optimism that change will come. However, this is an unlikely scenario due to the deeply entrenched power structure.

What appears to be on the horizon is not peaceful electioneering or voter education but a gloomy outlook that many monitoring the run-up elections foresee.

The causes for this are manifold. Zanu-PF, for example, often addresses supporters freely countrywide, whereas opposition parties’ rallies have been banned. This makes it very difficult for any opposition party to gather, discuss the way forward with their supporters and constituents, and many, including female leaders, fear for their lives. This is despite the fact that there is a gender quota for women to enter the political space (31% or 81 seats in the National Assembly are reserved for women) and be placed on voters’ rolls in an effort for more gender representation.

Apart from the gender inequality and intimidation many opposition female politicians face, the police, as an extended arm and tool of the ruling party, frequently use assault at opposition gatherings and invite their anti-riot squad to break up proceedings, such as the recent arrest of several dozens of CCC supporters earlier this year. In fact, as an extension of the ruling party, Zanu-PF tanks with “poisoned water and batons” are at times used to intimidate residents. 

The disbalance in terms of freedom-to-gather is not new. Some CCC officials have cited the disbandment, interruption, or outright refusal of opposition gatherings as being done for “frivolous reasons.” The CCC has also cited violence and intimidation as a major tactic by the ruling party to prevent it from gathering and meeting its members freely. 

Other tactics that are used include the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) often failing to disclose the voter’s roll for inspection to the opposition on time; violating electoral rules of the country. Despite the involvement of human rights lawyers and NGOs who have continually raised these issues and brought some to court, little is expected to change in terms of the ruling party’s machinations in the run-up to the 2023 general elections.

In the run-up to the by-elections earlier this year, some CCC rallies were banned by the police with meetings being disrupted. This is further exacerbated by the fact that at least 37 of its supporters were arrested. Many view this as a “test-run for the general elections next year”. Moreover, Zimbabwean human rights NGO Forum has recorded nearly 2,000 cases of political violence in the country between this January and October alone. According to NGO Forum, the situations range from “arbitrary arrests, malicious damage to property, arson, threats/harassment/intimidation as well as assault and torture.”

Violence and election rigging is not new in Zimbabwe’s political landscape, particularly by the ruling Zanu-PF. The reasons for this are simple: the retention of power. Yet, by intimidating voters and the opposition, their attempt to stifle local voices, and inability to meet their needs could backfire. Zanu-PF is again expected to bring out water cannons, police, and other intimidation tactics to ensure it remains at the helm of the country’s leadership in 2023. 

Any results of the elections that can be perceived to be against Zanu-PF’s interests are expected to be contested, such has occurred in the past with former opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. In sum, while the CCC may have garnered multiple seats in the by-elections, the 2023 elections are going to be a true test as to whether Zimbabwe is on the road to reform or will the country repeat the same tumultuous corruption practices that has been seen in its political landscape?

Can the CCC Overtake Zanu-PF?

The Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) was formed this January as a splinter group of the Movement for Democratic Change Alliance (MDC Alliance), the former main opposition party of Zimbabwe. Despite being such a young party on the Zimbabwean political front, it managed to win 19 out of 28 by-elections in March this year. This has made it a strong force to look out for in Zimbabwe’s political landscape as the MDC Alliance has been accused of having links to the ruling party Zanu-PF and has therefore lost significant credibility among voters. The CCC can be considered Zimbabwe’s largest political opposition at the moment and is worth following closely in the run-up to the 2023 elections. 

Structures, Constitution, & Election Manifesto

In May of this year, leader of the CCC, Nelson Chamisa, was criticised for not yet developing an election manifesto. Chamisa had also not created proper structures for the election nor selected party members. This has led some prominent Zimbabweans, such as exiled Professor Jonathan Moyo, who previously lectured in Political Science at various African universities, to call him “a one-man show.” 

Despite these criticisms, Chamisa stated in February that the party was working towards building a new government that will begin with Councillors, MPs, and followed by Ministers. These leaders, he claimed, would be “incorruptible” and “come from the communities, stay in the communities, and represent the citizens.” The practice of vote buying would also be abolished with a strong focus being placed on who Zimbabweans want to lead them and not who is imposed on them. 

Chamisa has also stated that the CCC would target rural areas as that is where true transformation will come from. According to the World Bank, around two-thirds of Zimbabweans live in rural areas and these have been a central focus for the ruling Zanu-PF in past election campaigns. In fact, Zanu-PF members have often been involved in hindering the CCC’s gatherings and one person was killed this year when “thugs” attacked a Chamisa gathering in Kwekwe, which is President Mnangagwa’s home town. 

The ultimate aim, however, as indicated on the party’s website is to have leadership that is “committed to seeing […] Zimbabwe rise up out of poverty and hardship in a new glory.” 

Challenges Going Forward

Zimbabwean police have banned the CCC from holding campaign rallies in some parts of the country. Chamisa, however, riding the wave of success of the recent by-elections stated that he was “encouraging supporters to register as national voters to ensure a landslide victory for the presidency and a two-thirds parliamentary majority”. 

Chamisa has called on every Zimbabwean to register to vote so that the country can experience true change in 2023. However, this should be done in face of the need for key electoral reforms prior to the elections. One such challenge is ensuring that Zimbabweans in the diaspora are allowed to vote, even though this has been a practice that Zanu-PF and the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) have not permitted. A potential reason for this is the absence of the right infrastructure to ensure voter authenticity and prevent voter fraud. However, with technological advances in terms of electoral equipment, these do not appear to be sound arguments by the ZEC and are rather perceived to be construed as seeking to limit the opposition from gaining a stronger foothold in Zimbabwean politics. According to recent records, there are over two million Zimbabweans living in South Africa. This alone could swing the vote in the CCC’s favour, but Zanu-PF is unlikely to support such changes. In fact, Zanu-PF has used violence, intimidation tactics, and food as weapons against the CCC and these machinations are not expected to subside in the mid-2023 elections. 

Chamisa, therefore, has an uphill battle against the deeply ingrained political status quo, which has strong structures and far reach. Consequently, and despite limitations such as being banned from holding rallies in some parts of the country, Chamisa will need to ensure that he stays committed to the cause, single handedly focusing on the task at hand, and braves the storms that are expected to head his way in truly turbulent times. He has acknowledged that much remains to be done and that “it’s not going to be easy,” particularly in the face of government-sponsored violence and intimidation.

Zimbabwe Heads to the Polls Mid-2023

Zimabweans are heading to the polls for their general elections in the third quarter of 2023, with the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) announcing a suspension of by-elections. These, according to the country’s Constitution, cannot be held nine months before a national election is due. 

The country’s last elections were held on 31 July 2018, with Zanu-PF emerging as the victorious political party under the helm of President and party leader Emmerson Mnangawa. Zanu-PF has ruled Zimbabwe since the country’s independence in 1980. The 42-year reign of the party is likely to continue, despite new players emerging in the role of the opposition while old ones attempt to consolidate their positions. 

A Brief Snapshot of the Main Contenders

The ruling Zanu-PF is expected to hold a congress in the next three weeks in which it is highly anticipated that Mnangagwa will be endorsed as the party’s 2023 presidential candidate. 

Nelson Chamisa is the current leader of the main opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC). He was formerly a part of the MDC-Alliance. Chamisa has promised to improve social protection and reform. Criticisms levelled at Chamisa and his party include that the CCC does not have “the political structures, ideological grounding, or a strategy to resolve the Zimbabwean socio political crisis”.

There is also the MDC-T, which is led by Douglas Mwonzora.

Criticisms Levelled

Chamisa has criticised the ZEC, citing lack of independence amidst contested election results. Further accusations were levelled at President Mnangagwa, who is accused of nepotism and manipulating past election results by appointing electoral commissioners who were relatives of some of his colleagues. Despite Zanu-PF vehemently opposing and ruling out any possibilities of the United Nations (UN) observing the elections, Chamisa has called on the intergovernmental body to attend as an observer. The ZEC has responded by dismissing as false “reports of any form or rigging in Zimbabwean elections”. This is despite the fact that the ZEC has a complete mandate to monitor the printing of ballot papers, which ultimately denies any opposition the chance to test the ballot paper’s “encrypted technological capabilities and security features”. 

The ZEC has been criticised for failing to revise its nomination fees under Statutory Instrument 144 of 2022. This has the potential of excluding multiple parties from the elections as presidential candidates are expected to pay $20,000, while aspiring Members of Parliament (MPs) are required to pay $1,000. Senate and local authority candidates will be required to pay $200. Some have referred to this as pricing democracy “out of reach for many”.

The President of the Amalgamated Rural Teachers Union of Zimbabwe Obert Masaraure has also criticised Zanu-PF of using teachers as a political tool. This followed after the launch of the recent Teachers for Economic Development (Teachers for ED) with over 5,000 educators attending and praising Mnangagwa. Masaraure called the move  a propaganda exercise, adding that Zanu-PF planned to use the teachers as polling officials in the elections as a way to “manipulate votes” in those constituencies where the opposition failed to field election agents.

A fourth challenge that is expected to arise in the upcoming elections is the issue of the youth vote. According to an Afrobarometer survey, just over half of youths aged 18 to 35, approximately 70% of Zimbabwe’s population, are planning to vote. This could potentially mean that the results of the elections will be under-representative of the overall population and that results could be quite skewed. This is partially attributed to political apathy among the youth.

The President Issues a Strong Warning

During this October, President Mnangagwa threatened politically focused NGOs, describing them as “trojan horses” with an intent on causing electoral instability. He also called for no violence during the upcoming elections. While reiterating that the elections must be peaceful, Mnangagwa stated that they are for Zimbabweans only; implying that no unfriendly foreign influences to Zimbabwe would be tolerated. 

The State of the Nation

A report conducted by the World Bank last year estimated that the number of Zimbabweans living in abject poverty, nearly half of the population, was nearly 7.9 million. The persistent challenges of inflation, unemployment, and poor service delivery continue to weigh heavily on the nation’s citizens. Some of the key developmental issues of concern include economic mismanagement and unemployment, which is expected to reach 5.9% by the end of 2022.

What’s Next?

The head of the European Union’s (EU’s) electoral mission for Zimbabwe Elmar Brok recently recommended that the country amends some of its laws prior to the elections to give all parties a fair chance of winning. Electoral reforms should ideally include levelling the playing field, ensuring the impartiality of state media, treating all parties equally, ensuring a proper voters’ registration, amongst multiple other factors and areas for reforms. If loopholes in current legislation are addressed, this is one of the ways of ensuring peace in the country, according to Brok.

Despite such recommendations, it is unlikely that Zanu-PF will let go of any of the power it has consolidated over the past three decades or change any of the laws that could favour the opposition. The upcoming elections are expected to see much of the same in the Zimbabwean political landscape with the current ruling party continuing to hold the reins tightly and steering the country in a direction which it views as the best for Zimbabweans. This is despite the economic state of the country, high levels of inflation, high unemployment figures, widespread poverty, and others. 

Opposition parties, which are sorely missed in Parliament due to their slim presence there, must continue to apply pressure on Zanu-PF in peaceful and consistent ways to give Zimbabweans hope for change. Many citizens live in fear during election periods and this is a time when violence can erupt. It is not uncommon for the ruling party to rely on its armed forces to quell protests. Voter intimidation is another factor that could be a stumbling block to free and fair elections. The façade of free and fair elections is expected to take years to break with the ultimate aim of having a more meaningful and democratic party landscape that Zimbabwe could benefit from.