Africa's Electoral Rollercoaster: Top Highlights and Challenges of the Last Two Weeks
Over the last two weeks, Africa's electoral landscape has witnessed a flurry of developments, ranging from humanitarian crises to political instability. The chance of any fair election in Sudan is at a standstill amid a growing humanitarian crisis, while South Sudan's fragile peace process could be threatened by potential spillover violence from Sudan. In Libya, a positive step forward was taken with the pledge by security and military factions to secure the electoral process, but concerns remain regarding weapon smuggling and the presence of mercenaries.
In Zimbabwe, the conviction and incarceration of an opposition party leader has raised concerns about the country's political climate. Meanwhile, Sierra Leone's upcoming presidential elections are shaping up to be highly competitive, with the defections of prominent opposition politicians to the ruling party and the adjournment of main opposition leader Dr. Samura Kamara's corruption trial until after the elections. As we continue our Election Watch series, these developments will be crucial in assessing the political risk and business implications for investors and other stakeholders.
April 17 - May 1
SUDAN
Worsening risks for displaced Sudanese civilians as fighting persists
As per 28 April reports, millions of Sudanese are currently facing severe food shortages, heightened health hazards, and preventable fatalities as the United Nations (UN) agencies have been compelled to halt their "life-saving" operations in Sudan. The ongoing violence has created an extremely hazardous environment, making it impossible for them to operate.
Sudan and its neighboring countries have endured decades of scarcity, suffering, and unrest. Even before the conflict between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Response Forces (RRF) erupted on 15 April, Sudan had already been hosting over 4 million displaced persons.
The escalating humanitarian crisis in Sudan, exacerbated by the recent suspension of UN agencies' "life-saving activities", may have significant implications for the upcoming elections. With millions of Sudanese facing severe hunger and heightened health risks, it is unlikely that the government can ensure a safe and fair election process. Moreover, the displacement of over 4 million people, even before the current conflict, raises concerns about the integrity of the electoral rolls and the potential exclusion of vulnerable communities.
The ongoing violence and the inability of UN agencies to operate further complicate the election process, as the government must ensure that all eligible voters can participate safely and freely. If the situation worsens, it will not be feasible to hold an election. Additionally, the lack of access to healthcare and other basic needs for displaced individuals may fuel further unrest and instability in the country, making it challenging for the government to guarantee a peaceful and democratic transition of power.
SOUTH SUDAN
Authorities express concern over continued violence in Sudan
According to 29 April reports, the South Sudanese government has voiced significant apprehension regarding the ongoing hostilities in Sudan. Major General Charles Machieng Kuol, a high-ranking military officer in South Sudan, expressed concern about the possible repercussions of an extended conflict and stressed the importance of stability in the area. He stated that his country has already deployed troops along the borders in order to safeguard them. Kuol underscored the country's preparedness to prevent the war from spilling over and escalating within South Sudan.
The ongoing fighting in Sudan poses a significant political and business risk for South Sudan, particularly as the country prepares for upcoming elections. Given the historical conflict and interdependent relationship between the two nations, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan could "easily spill over" into South Sudan, jeopardising the country's fragile peace process and potentially derailing the election. This situation requires urgent attention and strategic planning to mitigate potential negative impacts on businesses and political stability in the region.
Businesses operating in South Sudan must implement comprehensive risk management strategies and contingency plans to manage the potential disruptions caused by the conflict. Similarly, the government of South Sudan must continue to implement the necessary measures to protect its citizens and safeguard the pending election process from external influence. Failure to address this issue proactively and strategically could have severe consequences for the stability of South Sudan and its future prospects.
LIBYA
Libyan security and military factions pledge to secure elections
The UN Envoy to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, announced on 18 April that he had successfully negotiated with the security and military factions in Libya to ensure the safety and security of the forthcoming electoral process during a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) briefing. Bathily affirmed that all factions in the country expressed their commitment to meet the necessary criteria for holding elections. He secured a pledge from security and military factions to renounce violence, release detainees, and ensure an all-encompassing national reconciliation.
The early success of Abdoulaye Bathily's negotiations and the full commitment of the security and military factions in Libya has the potential to significantly contribute to a peaceful and democratic electoral process. The pledge to reject the use of violence, release prisoners, and promote national reconciliation is a crucial step towards the creation of a stable and inclusive political environment. If the parties continue to follow through on their commitments, the elections would be held under favourable circumstances that could increase public trust and participation in the democratic process.
However, if the security and military factions fail to fulfil their commitments, the electoral process could be marred by violence, insecurity, and intimidation. Failure to release more prisoners and promote national reconciliation could further deepen political divisions and create a hostile environment that undermines the credibility and legitimacy of the electoral process. The failure to provide a secure environment for the polls could lead to low voter turnout and further undermine the already fragile political stability in the country.
Weapon smuggling in Libya threatens stability
In April 18 reports, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US Representative to the Security Council, voiced her worries about the resurgence of conflict in Libya caused by unhindered arms trafficking. She called upon the 6+6 committee to assist the United Nations' initiatives and stressed the urgency of promptly tackling any obstacles that could hinder the forthcoming elections. Among these obstacles, Thomas-Greenfield highlighted the security threat posed by the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Libya.
If arms trafficking in Libya is not effectively addressed, it could have a significant impact on the security of the electoral process. The proliferation of weapons would create an environment of insecurity and potentially increase the likelihood of violence during the election. This could further impede the electoral process and undermine the legitimacy of the elected government. Additionally, if armed groups are able to continue acquiring weapons, they could potentially use them to challenge the authority of the government and destabilise the country. It is crucial that steps are taken to prevent arms trafficking and ensure the safety and security of the Libyan people during the upcoming elections.
ZIMBABWE
Opposition leader convicted for organising anti-corruption protests
The leader of the opposition party Transform Zimbabwe, Jacob Ngarivhume, was convicted on 28 April for organising and leading anti-corruption protests that took place in July 2020. He has been sentenced to a four-year prison term, with one year suspended and no option for bail. Amnesty International's Interim Deputy Regional Director, Vongai Chikwanda, has called upon the Zimbabwean authorities to overturn Jacob Ngarivhume's conviction and sentence, arguing that the organisation of the protests was based on his right to free expression and peaceful assembly.
Amnesty International's (AI) request for the reversal of the conviction highlights a high political and business risk environment for Zimbabwe. The conviction may be perceived as an attempt to suppress opposition voices and dissent, thereby creating a hostile environment for political and social activism. Such an action could also undermine the credibility and integrity of the upcoming elections. It is therefore imperative for the authorities to reconsider their decision (as per AI recommendations) in order to prevent further escalation of political tensions in the country. This arrest and subsequent conviction may intimidate opposition parties and supporters, thus limiting their ability to campaign freely and impacting the overall fairness of the electoral process. Additionally, the sentencing of Jacob Ngarivhume further raises concerns about the rule of law and the potential weaponization of the judiciary system to settle political scores.
SIERRE LEONE
Opposition Leaders Join Forces with Ruling Party Ahead of Presidential Polls
According to 26 April reports, several opposition politicians, including Dr. Kandeh Yumkella, the parliamentary leader of the National Grand Coalition (NGC) party, and Saa Emerson Lamina, the parliamentary leader of the Coalition for Change (C4C), along with two of his eight C4C parliamentarians, defected and declared their support for President Julius Maada Bio's Sierra Leone Peoples Party (SLPP) before the presidential polls. Dr. Kandeh Yumkella's support for President Julius Maada Bio is of significant importance as it potentially brings 170,000 votes that the NGC party won in the 2018 election, thereby boosting SLPP's votes.
These defections resemble Charles Margai's political breakaway in 2007, where he left the SLPP to form the People's Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC). However, despite Margai's 2007 success in helping President Ernest Bai Koroma rise to power, PMDC's sudden rise came at the expense of a disunited and fragmented SLPP, with most PMDC supporters returning to the SLPP or joining the All People's Congress (APC) party by 2012. The current defections raise questions about whether history is repeating itself, and if so, what lessons can be learned for Yumkella and his NGC, as well as Sahr Lamina and his C4C.
While it may be difficult to predict the exact outcome of the presidential polls in Sierra Leone due to the current political climate, the defections of prominent opposition politicians to the ruling party could give the SLPP a significant advantage in the elections, resulting in their political irrelevance in the long run. However, this move may also lead to the creation of new opposition parties or alliances, which may ramp up electoral competition in the next electoral cycle. The defection of Yumkella and Lamina to the ruling party has undoubtedly increased President Julius Maada Bio's chances of winning the election. Nevertheless, other smaller parties' roles cannot be ignored as they could also influence the election's outcome. The opposition parties may create new alliances or coalitions to counterbalance the SLPP's advantage, resulting in a more intense and competitive election. The weeks ahead are critical and require close monitoring to identify any further political negotiations leading up to the June 24th presidential elections.
Opposition Leader's Corruption Trial Suspended Until After Presidential Election
The hearing against Dr. Samura Kamara, the presidential candidate and leader of the main opposition party the All People's Congress (APC), and five others by Sierra Leone's Anti-Corruption Commission was scheduled for 29 April but has been suspended until 14 July. This is nearly three weeks after the presidential and general elections scheduled for June 24th. The APC's National Publicity Secretary, Sidi Yahya Tunis, expressed relief at the decision and stated that the party would utilise the extra time to communicate more effectively with the electorate.
Many observers and analysts following the case believe that the trial is politically motivated and intended to derail Dr. Samura Kamara's candidacy against the incumbent President Julius Maada Bio. Senior lawyer and former Ombudsman Francis Gabbidon is among those who have publicly expressed the opinion that the case is unjustified and politically motivated, a sentiment shared by other legal practitioners and public servants. Dr. Samura Kamara's perceived chances of winning the presidency make the impact of the suspended trial on the upcoming election significant. With the trial postponed until after the election, it may become a referendum on Kamara's innocence. The more than two-years case and the allegations of political motivation may raise concerns of a compromised judicial system, potentially affecting public confidence in the government's ability to uphold the rule of law. It remains to be seen how voters will view the trial's postponement and whether it will positively or negatively affect the APC's chances of winning the presidency.
Conclusion
As Africa prepares for a series of elections, it is evident that several challenges and opportunities lie ahead. It is essential that proactive measures are taken to address the challenges facing the region's electoral processes and safeguard the integrity and legitimacy of the electoral outcomes. By doing so, African nations can set the pace for peaceful, inclusive, and democratic governance, setting the foundation for sustainable development and progress.