Elections Already Declared Rigged

Several African countries are struggling with insecurity as they prepare for elections this year. Backlashes against corruption and impunity are rising, with protestors facing oppression and violence. Opposition leaders and civil society activists are facing enormous challenges to have their voices heard. Unfortunately, the outlook on upcoming elections is grim as voting procedures are already being ruled as unfair.

ZIMBABWE

President Mnangagwa declared that he will announce the official date for the 2023 elections this week. Having an official date will conclude a lengthy period of speculation around the electoral calendar. Previously, the only piece of information known to the public has been an indication that the elections are likely to take place in July or August. As the official date will be announced, all sides of the political spectrum will begin an intensive campaigning period in the coming weeks.

One of the main axes of the existing campaign is the economic stability of the country. Zimbabwe has been facing high levels of inflation, poor economic performance and alarming level of food insecurity. The opposition's narrative is that the current regime is entrenched in corruption and that only a new government has the capability to stimulate a much needed economic upturn. The government claims that it has been able to guide the country through difficult economic decisions, which have yielded positive results and that they deserve another mandate to further promote growth and stability. The true scale of support for both the government as well as the opposition forces is unclear. However, fair democratic elections are unlikely due to the level of control President Mnangagwa’s allies have in the electoral process.


Audit Declares Zero Confidence

The Research and Advocacy Unit conducted an audit of pre-election procedures in the country and concluded that “there cannot be any confidence in the forthcoming elections” and that  “conditions for a free and fair election are absent”. The report highlights political influence on the electoral commission, restrictions on freedom of expression, and challenging registration procedures, especially for the opposition urban voter base as some of the main irregularities present in the current process. 

Controversial Procurement Law

President Mnangagwa is receiving backlash from opposition leaders and activists during his attempts to distance himself from a recent law passed that is aimed at concealing how taxpayers’ money is spent in the health ministry. “The notice published in the government gazette in early March declared that construction equipment and materials, biomedical and medical equipment, medicines and drugs, and vehicles – including ambulances – are among the list of items of national interest and shall not be publicly disclosed.” Civil society organisations were moving to challenge the law in court, declaring the statute as unconstitutional and demanding transparency. 

Mnangagwa claimed that the document was published without his approval, indicating an environment of “confusion” within the top levels of the government. “While further investigations are underway, the government wishes to advise the public that, on the instruction of His Excellency the President, the document in question has been rescinded as it has no standing at law, in policy and in terms of set government procedures. It thus should be disregarded,” stated Chief Secretary Misheck Sibanda. Concern is rising regarding the published law, causing worry that political leaders can act with “impunity”. According to political analyst Rashweat Mukundu, “What we are dealing with is a mafia that feels they are above the law that uses state power to abuse national resources. So regardless of the fact that this was withdrawn, the mere fact that someone sitting in a government office thought about this tells us of the level of the collapse of state management in this country.”

Military Intimidation

The military and intelligence forces have been heavily involved in controlling state structures, which has enabled them to informally campaign for the incumbent President. They have been accused of intimidating voters, preventing opposition candidates from campaigning in the government’s strongholds, heavily influencing the electoral bodies, and holding control of the electoral technological infrastructure. 

These elections do have the potential to cease ZANU-PF’s domination on Zimbabwean politics. Yet, the true scale of the opposition’s support will only become clear in the coming months. The election is likely to be closely contested. A recent poll based on 1,000 phone respondents has shown that currently opposition leader Nelson Chamisa is leading the incumbent President by over 10 per cent. However, these figures should be taken with extreme caution and cannot serve as any form of indication of what the final result will look like. The scale of the government’s interference in the electoral procedures as well as their ability to maximise outcomes in its rural base are likely to be key factors in the final results. With so much control over governmental instruments, a transition of power away from President Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF in a legitimate and democratic process is highly unlikely.

DRC

Attacks on Protestors

Security forces in the DRC have used tear gas to thwart anti-government demonstrators last week. Approximately 10 protesters have been detained, nearly 30 police officers were injured, and three policemen have been detained for using violence against a minor - an act which was condemned by the country’s human rights minister. The protest was called for by opposition leaders and people came out onto the streets in order to express their disapproval of reported infringements in voter registration for the 2023 December elections.

The opposition leaders have been accusing the government of not following constitutional procedures in appointing judges, nominating partisan members into the electoral commission and obstructing registration for voters in opposition stronghold regions. Grievances of the protesters were further exacerbated by the rising costs of living and lack of state control over the activities of militia groups in the east, where violence has been a significant threat to the security of citizens. The elections are about six months away and with a prevalent security crisis within its borders, electoral irregularities and reported ethnic discrimination of voters, tensions are likely to remain high throughout the campaign period. 

LIBERIA

Voter Registration Ended

Earlier this month, the Liberian National Elections Commission (NEC) ended its voter registration process. It was the first time the country used a biometric registration system in order to reduce the number of double registrations. However, the Elections Coordinating Committee (ECC) identified a number of irregularities that could impede the fairness of the democratic process. The NEC’s lack of consistency in conducting eligibility checks, as well as instances of voter trucking (the movement of voters to different locations in order to affect election results) and voter violence have all reduced the legitimacy of the procedures. 

The elections will take place on October 10th and due to Liberia’s strict requirement of 50 per cent majority means that the winner will most likely be chosen on the basis of their ability to build political alliances. Incumbent President Weah has been facing pressure due to accusations of corruption against senior allies, weak provision of public goods and services, and lack of adequate investment in the country’s infrastructure. However, he maintains a strong mandate from the ruling Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) party, especially in the face of a fragmented opposition. 

ANGOLA

President Cutting Russian Ties

President João Lourenço appears to be severing ties with Russia in order to deepen relations with the US. Lourenço is pushing for a meeting with President Joseph Biden this year in order to gain Western support as rumours are spreading that Lourenço is seeking a controversial third term. Lourenço stated in December that he wants the country to replace Russian military equipment with American, marking a significant development that could heighten US-Russian tensions in Africa as Angola is Russia’s fourth largest market for arms. 

Conclusion

Countries across the region are facing irregularities in their electoral processes. In the cases of Zimbabwe and the DRC, state mechanisms are creating an unfavourable environment for opposition groups. As a result, regardless of the true levels of support for the opposition, current governments hold significant levels of control over the electoral procedures. An indication that a transition of power in these countries is highly unlikely. Furthermore, state weakness continues to create a significant security risk in the DRC where the government’s inability to control militias in the eastern regions is likely to further exacerbate mistrust in the government. With the declaration that ‘free and fair’ elections are unlikely in some states, electoral violence is expected to be heightened and widespread.

Sudan Could Become the Site of International War

The recent spur in conflict in Sudan has caused concern regarding the country turning to civil war. Without a doubt, this would be a disastrous development for the Sudanese, a people already struggling with a food insecurity crisis and mass displacement; 3.7 million Sudanese are already internally displaced. According to Save the Children, a third of the population (15.8 million) are in need of humanitarian assistance. Gunfire and explosions have proliferated across the capital of Khartoum, where the majority of the city's 5 million people are sheltering at home without electricity or access to food or water. In less than a week, as many as 20,000 people have fled from the region of Darfur and crossed the border into Chad, a country that already hosts 400,000 refugees and has limited resources. As of the publication of this article, 420 people have been killed and at least 3,551 injured. 

External Competition

In addition to the concern over casualties, there needs to be consideration regarding the involvement of external actors that could exacerbate the conflict. A plethora of foreign countries have already become involved, some of which are trying to invoke diplomacy and foster stability. However, there are others who are exacerbating the conflict, such as the Egyptian military and a Libyan militia, by supplying arms to opposite sides. “Khalifa Haftar, the commander of a faction that controls eastern Libya, dispatched at least one plane to fly military supplies to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces [... while] Egypt sent warplanes and pilots to back the Sudanese military”. 

While the US State Department is preparing to impose sanctions on the two parties, it is doubtful that they will be adhered to or serve as a warning to others. This has become evident as Russia and the UAE team up to evade sanctions; “on the Emirati-Russian front, everything seems to be going smoothly: for a year now, hundreds of Russian companies have been created to circumvent Western sanctions, while banned oligarchs continue to do business and maintain their fortunes.” Both countries are supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti; there is little doubt that this partnership would not extend to military action in Sudan. Russian and Emirati involvement is alarming given the Wagner Group’s track record of “alleged torture, mass killings and looting in several war-torn countries”, alongside the allegation circulating that the UAE was behind an attempted coup by the RSF, a major cause of the conflict. 

The regional powers (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) and the international powers (China, the EU, Russia, and the US) involved will play a critical role in how the conflict develops. “Sudan’s strategic position on the Red Sea, its access to the Nile River and vast gold reserves have long been coveted by outside powers.” Russia has already played a role in plundering Sudan’s gold reserves through collusion with the Sudanese military; they were given access to gold reserves in exchange for political and military support. This has enabled “billions of dollars in gold to bypass the Sudanese state and to deprive the poverty-stricken country of hundreds of millions in state revenue.” US officials confirmed that Russia was behind the 2021 coup that placed General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in power as the de facto head of state. Russia has evaded sanctions by using Sudan’s gold to fund their war efforts in Ukraine while backing military rule in Sudan and expanding Wagner activities. It is exceptionally doubtful that Russia is concerned with the stability of the nation or the realities faced by civilians. One has only to look at Russia’s nefarious activities throughout the continent regarding disinformation, human rights violations, and their inability to effectivey abate terrorism in several nations across the continent.

Risk of Terrorism

The conflict also opens the door to terrorist groups, who are likely to take advantage of the instability and make their own attempts in acquiring access to crucial resources and infrastructure, such as oil fields and ports. “The Sahel is the region of the world most affected by terrorism, recording a noticeable deterioration in 2022 [...]”. The proliferation of terrorist groups in Sudan would also exacerbate the battle for influence among foreign nations. Suspected Wagner ties with General Hemedti, though denied, set the stage for Western nations to possibly become involved in more than just diplomacy. A greater dependency on Wagner in Sudan would, without a doubt, impact Sudan’s relations with other African nations and impact western counter-terrorism efforts. A Wagner expansion into Sudan would be very damaging; not only when concerned with foreign relations and security sector reform, but also with human rights. Regarding Wagner, the State Department stated that “The interference of such entities in Sudan’s internal conflict will only lead to more human suffering and delay the country’s transition to democracy.”

Additionally, resources could be pulled from other vulnerable nations and causes to apply focus on Sudan, creating further discord in Africa. As the Sahel becomes the epicentre of terrorism, the conflict in Sudan could have a disastrous effect on counter-terrorism efforts on the continent, furthering the decline in democracy, encouraging greater migration crises, and creating new conflicts in the region. As Sudan plummets further into insecurity, it is ever more likely that groups associated with al-Qaeda or the Islamic State will become intertwined in the conflict.

Power Struggles

The conflict in Sudan is at a critical precipice. As of now, the impression is that the generals will fight to the end. “This conflict intends to name the next president,” says Bashir El-Shariff, a professor of political science at the Islamic University of Omdurman. A diplomat added, “There is a Gordian knot to be cut between them.” It is clear that both generals are disregarding the impacts on the Sudanese people as the country is driven into further turmoil; evidenced by the repeated dismissal of previous agreements. As is shown through the worry of Sudan’s neighbours, instability rarely stays localised. Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group poignantly stated, “What happens in Sudan will not stay in Sudan. [...] The longer (the fighting) drags on the more likely it is we see major external intervention.” 

Norway’s ambassador to Sudan, Endre Stiansen, echoed his sentiments; “one of the worst things that can happen is that this becomes a regional conflict where countries in the neighbourhood intervene on behalf of either of the parties.” While mediation is critically needed, governments that provide military supplies will generate an environment of bedlam that will be difficult to recover from. Unless foreign powers are able to quickly and successfully mediate the conflict, Sudan will be thrown into a civil war with international backing. Should the conflict continue on its current trajectory, the impacts will be felt across the continent while governments and militias fight each other for influence.

Food Insecurity in Africa

Examining contributors & consequences across sectors

The problem of food insecurity in Africa is becoming increasingly severe, exacerbated by its intersection with other crises. In this report by Africa Watch, we investigate some of the most prevalent factors that contribute to this problem and their consequences, both in Africa and globally. By analysing the agriculture, economics, politics, and human security sectors, we identify the complexity of the issue and conclude that regional action alone is not sufficient to solve the problem. International cooperation is also necessary to tackle the issue of food insecurity in Africa.

Read the report HERE