Consequences of Deforestation in the Congo Basin
International Impact of Deforestation
The Congo Basin is the largest rainforest in Africa and the second largest in the world, behind the Amazon. Despite having a smaller surface area, it absorbs more carbon dioxide than the Amazon, making it the Earth’s largest carbon sink. It lies across six nations: Cameroon, the Central African Republic (CAR), Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Gabon, and the Republic of the Congo, with 60% of the basin in the DRC.
Large-scale deforestation in the Congo Basin is a complex problem. The environmental consequences of its destruction significantly impact the carbon-reducing capabilities of our planet. Absorbing 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide each year, which equates to approximately 4% of global annual emissions, the basin is one of the few places in the world that absorbs more carbon than it emits. As a result, protecting the Basin has been on the agenda of global conservation efforts, including the recent COP27.
Unfortunately, the basin’s resource richness has driven vast land mismanagement and exploitation since the colonial period. In 2019, the DRC became the country with the second highest levels of deforestation - only behind Brazil. In 2021 alone, deforestation in the Congo Basin increased by almost 5%, affecting over 630,000 hectares of land. Estimates show that between 2013 and 2014, levels of deforestation in the DRC meant that emissions equivalent to what would be released by 50 coal power plants in one year were not captured.
Additionally, the sheer size of the basin plays a crucial role in regulating rainfall patterns across Africa, which, when disturbed, could have a devastating effect on the availability of potable water and food supplies. This is especially relevant in countries like Ethiopia and Somalia, where drought has already put significant strain on resources - continued droughts could have catastrophic consequences, likely leading to famine. Furthermore, the reduced frequency of rainfall is a direct cause of soil degradation, as soil is then unable to absorb water at the necessary pace when rain does occur, consequently enhancing the risk of flooding.
Deforestation in the Congo Basin additionally generates a significant risk of spreading deadly infections. This happens because the number of species that could be carrying infectious viruses are moving closer to human settlements as their natural forest habitat recedes. Ebola endemics have followed this exact mechanism, with the very first cases recorded in the 1970s being caused by large-scale deforestation. The 2018-2020 Ebola endemic in the DRC showcases the constant risk, which is particularly elevated by the country’s high biodiversity. The spread of the diseases was partially contained by the naturally healthy ecosystem but still managed to claim 2,000 lives in a relatively short period of time.
Stake Weakness, Corruption, and a Lack of Political Will
The mechanisms facilitating this alarming pace of deforestation in the Congo Basin can be directly associated with the weakness of the Congolese state. As 60% of the basin is located within the territory of the DRC, the DRC is also the country where the majority of deforestation activities are taking place.
The DRC is in the 10th percentile of the human capital index, making it one of the least developed countries in the world. With few opportunities for people to support themselves - in an impoverished region marked by instability and conflict - deforestation has become a staple of the local economy. Almost two-thirds of the DRC’s population lives on less than $1.90 a day. Large populations turn to activities like hunting and poaching, and work in the logging industry. Further, increased migration by forcibly displaced populations from South Sudan and the Central African Republic has put even more pressure on the land, pushing people to settle on previously untouched natural habitats. China, the US, and Europe - where commodities extracted from the basin, like wood, palm oil, and rubber are often falsely advertised as eco-friendly - mainly fuel the growing global demand. As seen on the map below, small-scale agriculture is the principal driver of deforestation in the Basin.
Image Source: Science Advances
The DRC government is ineffective in exercising complete control over its territories, let alone its forests, creating a security vacuum in which militant groups exploit available resources. Although the government has been receiving significant funds from international actors to restore degraded lands and has granted specific areas with protected status, it cannot fully implement protective conversation mechanisms due to the substantial presence and influence of dispersed armed groups.
The weakness of the Congolese state leaves limited capacity to enforce legal mechanisms across the basin’s territory. As mining and logging companies are able to influence the government and surpass checks and balances, their activities often go unmonitored. With enough power generated, they can exploit resources without limits and without control. Reports from the Environmental Investigation Agency show that consortiums of timber companies have bribed ministers to receive concessions.
Corrupt political structures facilitate the extraction of resources in the basin through the breach of labour laws, evasion of taxation schemes, and violation of protected zones with little to no resistance to their activities. Networks of criminals operating in the DRC are often involved in drug trafficking, money laundering, corruption, fraud, and tax evasion. Local activists or communities that have attempted to interfere have faced backlash, including brutality from the police. Without punitive mechanisms in place, large-scale deforestation thrives as companies avoid control and oversight.
For years, the Forest Code of 2002 was the binding legal framework protecting the rights of local communities in the DRC to concessions; however, the code lacked specific legal tools to ensure accountability and the management of concessions. This resulted in shaky legality around property rights, which was easily abused for commercial purposes. The government regularly issues logging concessions to companies that bypass existing laws, disregarding conservation policies. In 2022, the DRC opened tenders for 30 permits to extract oil and gas, covering areas with particular carbon sequestering capabilities.
Gabon - the Conservation Champion
The Congo Basin covers six countries, but only Gabon and the Republic of Congo have experienced a decrease in deforestation rates. Although the Congo Basin covers only 5-10% of Gabon’s total area, it has received international attention for its exemplary conservation efforts.
In 2021, while deforestation levels rose in the DRC, in Gabon they decreased by 28%. This can be mainly attributed to rigorous standards for the management of forests, which are widely and strictly enforced. Extractive business operations in the Gabonese part of the Congo Basin require specific approvals, and the Gabonese government obliges all businesses present in the basin to offset their emissions. Enforcement is facilitated by a robust network of organisations that collaborate with the government in monitoring carbon credits. 88% of Gabon’s surface is still covered in forest, and the country has generated certified carbon credits stemming from 200 million tons of carbon absorption.
Continuity is one specific element that sets Gabon apart from other nations that span the Congo Basin. Until the 2023 coup, the Bongo family had governed Gabon for 55 years. Although their tenure was autocratic and oversaw widespread poverty, the government has displayed solid political will in promoting environmental conservation over several decades. In collaboration with numerous data collection agencies, governmental bodies have utilised large-scale data collection, including satellite and drone imaging. Satellite imagery helps to identify illegal logging, which on-the-ground workers and researchers relay on to the authorities.
Gabon has also opened special economic zones to balance profitability and sustainability, where companies receive tax breaks and other advantages. This policy offers favourable economic conditions to businesses while ensuring that all logging activities are certified and monitored. Sophisticated QR code tracking systems exemplify robust due diligence mechanisms with clear assessment metrics.
Gabon has been working very closely with the UN to strengthen its environmental capacity, and it is apparent that this collaboration has been fruitful. Gabon’s success has created a cycle through which visible achievements yield even more investment into protection and conservation. The challenge has been to ensure that communities benefit from the protection efforts, while simultaneously generating new opportunities for industries that communities can become involved in. Gabon’s example has shown that by creating clear protection laws and promoting sustainable producers, it is possible to promote both economic profits and environmental conservation, which has the potential to be replicated in other environments.
However, it has to be pointed out that the situation in Gabon is not directly translatable to other countries in the region. Evidence shows that mineral and oil exports are often linked with a reduction in deforestation as the wealth generated by those industries facilitates the import of food in larger quantities, reducing the size of the national agricultural sector, which is evident in the case of Gabon. It remains unclear how the new political landscape after the collapse of the Bongo family’s grip on power will affect environmental policies.
Lucrative earnings from deforestation in the Congo Basin drive companies to pursue environmentally unsustainable practices. There have been multiple successful sustainability campaigns which have informed consumers of malpractice in product supply chains resulting in the promotion of fair trade products. Putting pressure on companies involved in deforestation in the area - by increasing awareness of unsustainable practices - could have the potential to revert some of the documented consequences of deforestation in the Congo Basin.
The destruction of the Basin reduces the Earth’s ability to naturally absorb CO2, promotes the spread of diseases, and disrupts rainfall patterns affecting fresh water supplies and food access in other parts of Africa. Although funds from international donors are being invested into the Basin, high levels of corruption, especially prevalent in the DRC, have reduced their impact on its preservation. As a result, there is potential for NGOs, development agencies, and transparency focused organisations to expand activities by tracking how these funds are used on the ground and measuring how they directly contribute to the specific objectives they were designed for.
Coup in Niger Likely to Further Destabilise the Sahel
On the night of the 26 July and into the following morning, the Niger’s presidential guard, led by General Abdourahmane Tchiani, captured and detained President Mohamed Bazoum, declaring control of the country through a coup d’etat. The military junta set up the ‘National Council for the Salvation of the Homeland’ (CNSP), simultaneously suspending the existing constitution and installing a curfew and closing country borders. Officials have presented the past government’s inability to protect citizens from the threat of terrorist violence as a justification for the coup. This seems to be at least partially true, as reports show that the government has underestimated the security threat presented by Boko Haram in the south and armed groups with links to ISIL and al-Qaeda in the west. Additionally, there have been recent internal divisions between the presidential guard and the military, which is likely to have further pushed General Tchiani towards rebellion. After the coup was announced, protesters gathered in the capital, showcasing support for Bazoum. Estimates suggest the presence of hundreds of people, however, the crowd’s advances towards the presidential palace were met with a stern reaction from the presidential guard, which dispersed the protests through warning shots.
African leaders have been seeking a peaceful resolution. Both the African Union (AU) as well as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) - Niger being a member of both - have been vocal in condemning the coup in an attempt to reestablish stability. Benin’s president, Patrice Talon, has personally flown to Niger in order to evaluate the situation. Now both the AU and ECOWAS have given the new military leadership strict deadlines to cede power, reinstall Bazoum as head of state, and restore constitutional order under the threat of sanctions. ECOWAS has gone a step further in not ruling out the use of force if the new authorities refuse to cooperate.
Growth of ‘Coup belt’ weakens region, strengthens paramilitary groups
The coup in Niger bodes poorly for western influence in the region. Niger has been called the “west’s only hope” in the Sahel region as it acted as a rare ally in the region under Bazoum. Both the EU and the US have been dedicating substantial financial resources to keep Niger secure and fit to combat the activities of regional paramilitary and terrorist groups, while also managing irregular migration from the sub-Saharan region. Revolts in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Sudan have created a wave of coups in the region, where predominantly pro-western leaders have been repeatedly replaced by heavy handed military juntas.
After a military takeover in Mali, the new anti-western regime expelled all French military staff from within its borders. Consequently, French troops relocated to Niger which served as a regional hub for western resources and troops fighting armed groups in the region. With Niger’s new military junta at the helm, the ‘coup belt’ grows and further reinforces instability in the Sahel. Without a strong and legitimately recognised leadership, groups like Boko Haram and networks of al-Qaeda and ISIL could potentially grow in strength and further weaken an already weak state.
Western woes mean opportunities for Russia
Military governments that lack democratic legitimacy have a tendency to coddle up to non-democratic global powers in order to stay in power and exert control over their territories. Russia, often through the hands of the Wagner group, has been benefiting from this phenomenen in Africa in recent years. Mali has been the most recent example where exiled western troops were replaced by Russian mercenaries. In Niger, Russia has a history of launching destabilising disinformation campaigns, which could indicate that Russia may also be interested in expanding its physical presence in the country.
Niger produces approximately 7% of the world's uranium. Historically, a significant portion of its uranium production has been channelled to France, primarily for use in the nation's nuclear power stations that account for around 70% of French power generation. Notably, France relies heavily on uranium imports, with about three-quarters of its supply coming from just four countries: Kazakhstan, Australia, Niger, and Uzbekistan. However, the dynamics surrounding Niger's uranium trade have been evolving. The country has diversified its customer base, reducing its dependence on traditional buyers like France, and has started selling significant shares of its uranium to customers in Canada and China, with companies from both of these nations operating their own extraction sites within Niger.
Wagner's history of accepting payments in natural resources and particularly valuable raw minerals is no secret. The coup in Niger has raised suspicions regarding Wagner's involvement and the potential objectives of the Russian government. Although information on the scale of alignment between the Wagner group and the Russian government is sparse, Yevgeny Prigozhin's decision to attend a Russia-Africa conference suggests that Wagner is deeply interested in the region. Below are two possible motives for that interest in Niger:
Uranium for Wagner and Russian Interests: The coup might open up opportunities for Wagner to establish operations in Niger, likely in exchange for access to uranium resources. These uranium reserves could then be transported to Russia for military or civilian purposes or be sold on international markets. This would likely have a significant impact on uranium extraction businesses currently in operation in Niger.
Disrupting the French Energy Market: Another speculated objective is that the coup may enable Wagner to divert significant amounts of uranium away from the French energy market. This disruption could potentially jeopardise the supply of uranium to France, leading to fluctuations in energy prices. The potential consequences of this disruption include an energy-related cost of living crisis in France, similar to what some European countries have experienced when dependent on Russian gas.
Given the geopolitical implications and potential economic repercussions, it is imperative for the international community to closely monitor the situation in Niger and collaborate to ensure stability, transparency, and accountability in the region's natural resource trade. Additionally, addressing concerns regarding Wagner's activities and their potential impact on global security and energy markets should be a priority for relevant international organisations and nations.
Too early to declare coup successful
The reason behind the exact timing of the rebellion remains unclear. The most probable scenario is that General Tchiani, who was installed as commander of Niger’s presidential guard by Bazoum’s predecessor, had been dismissed from office days prior to the coup and spearheaded the rebellion in an attempt to remain in power. Tchiani has declared himself the leader, however, it remains unclear exactly how much backing he retains within the militaty and business establishment. A financially sanctioned presidential guard with limited support from the military and civil society may eventually find itself in a weak and vulnerable position.
Conclusion
Once the current fluid situation becomes more clear and the structures of power become at least partially reestablished, Niger could become another African state involved in a wider international power struggle. The west, mainly represented in Africa by France diplomatically, and by the US financially, will want to retain Niger as a security buffer against military insurgent groups in the region. However, Wagner will aim to add Niger to its growing list of allies in the West African region.
Although Bazoum had a history of restricting democratic freedoms and was ultimately unable to ensure security across the country, his rule did see an increase in per capita income, improvement in humanitarian indicators, and at least partially competent inflation management. Conversely, frequent military coups in other countries have led to visible regressions in most of these areas, and it is difficult to find reasons why Niger will become an exception. If Tchiani is successful in securing his position as the new leader, Niger’s fate could closely resemble that of Mali, which has been characterised by worsening cases of violence against civilians, constitutional impasse, increasing Wagner activities, and the rise of militant groups.
Backing Down from Controversial Third Term Bid Restores Democratic Standards
After a period of turmoil and widespread riots across the country, Senegal President Macky Sall has ruled out seeking a controversial third term. In Zimbabwe, a crackdown on opposition activities has been intensifying in the build up to the elections. And in South Sudan, President Kiir has stated that the country’s first elections will take place next year, although the legitimacy of this declaration is far from certain.
SENEGAL
Macky Sall Rules Out Third Term
President Macky Sall has declared that he will not be seeking a third term in the upcoming elections. The opposition leader, Idrissa Seck, has “commended President Sall for making the right and honourable decision” and described it as “a victory for the Senegalese people”.
The decision to run for a third term was seen as controversial and introduced tensions in one of the most politically and democratically stable countries in the region. Widespread riots earlier this year have been partially sparked by the president’s inability to rule out his candidacy.
The decision has been widely praised throughout the West African bloc and the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has stated that Sall’s decision “represents a very important example for his country and the world”. His declaration opens the door for a number of Sall’s close allies to seek the country’s top position in the upcoming elections. This decision will most likely have to happen fast as Seck has already been confirmed to be the leading opposition party’s candidate.
ZIMBABWE
Government Cracks Down on Opposition Rallies as Elections Approach
As the August elections are approaching in Zimbabwe, state forces have been obstructing opposition activities throughout the country. Nearly 100 opposition rallies have been banned or interrupted during the campaign period. The police, who have been accused of allying with the government forces, have been fully banning opposition gatherings on the premise of what the opposition believes to be illegitimate reasons. On July 9th, a large rally 100km from the capital was banned at the last minute due to poor sanitation facilities and road access. The lower court upheld the police’s ban. The opposition has accused the government of using state apparatus to thwart its efforts at a legitimate opportunity to challenge the government in the upcoming elections.
This trend falls into a wider pattern of continuous state behaviour aimed at facilitating the way for the governing party to stay in power. Recently, the ruling party has sent campaign messages to registered voters via text messages, even those who are not party members. The message signed with President Mnangagwa’s name went out to around a million out of the 6 million registered voters in the country. During the registration of voters, phone numbers were captured as one of the data points for voters, which have been mishandled in what seems like a deliberate data breach. Digital activists have voiced their concerns that data rights have been abused for political influence, which poses a significant threat to activists and journalists as voters also have to submit addresses when they register.
As election day approaches, the more difficult opposition’s operations are becoming. Zimbabwe’s administration has long foregone even an attempt to present itself behind a democratic facade, with the elections unlikely to pose any form of challenge to the governing ZANU-PF and President Mnangagwa.
SOUTH SUDAN
President Kiir Declares Intent to Organise Elections in 2024
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has stated that the country’s first elections will take place in 2024. Originally, elections were to be held in February of this year, however, the clauses of agreement between the government and the opposition have not been met within the necessary timeframe. Last August, the transitional government of Kiir as president and his biggest rival, Riek Machar as Vice-President, was extended for another two years.
Despite the president’s verbal promises, the UN has criticised his government for inciting violence and impeding democratic freedoms rather than attempting to install them. UN Envoy Nicholas Haysom has stated that South Sudan is “not yet ready” for free, fair, and credible elections in 2024. However, he has stressed that with enough political will, investment in the necessary resources and desire to commit to democratic mechanisms progress could be made.
Instability in Neighbouring Sudan Causes Mass Returns
The country finds itself in a state of both political and security crises. The civil war took hundreds of thousands of lives and resulted in over 2 million people fleeing the country. One of the main destinations for refugees has been neighbouring Sudan, which is now facing its own civil war and has forced many refugees to return to South Sudan. Around 159,000 people have already crossed the border back into South Sudan since the Sudanese conflict arose and the UN stated that over 90% are people returning back home. With so many people coming back into South Sudan, there is an increased level of movement within the country’s borders. The number of people seeking shelter and security remains very high, which provokes competition between communities for already scarce resources, leading to visible tensions.
Conclusion
Senegalese President Macky Sall has ultimately sustained the status of a democratic leader in an extremely volatile region after ruling out an electoral bid for a third term. However, the delay in the announcement suggests that the decision was more likely caused by political pressure rather than an altruistic motivation to champion democracy. Although his critics may be right in saying that announcing this decision earlier could have potentially spared at least some of the lives of the people who died during recent riots, the decision itself is good news for democracy.
Despite the fact that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has confirmed elections for 2024, the country’s road to stability and democracy has been painfully long. In the 12 years since the country’s independence, around half have been dominated by civil war. Over 159,000 South Sudanese refugees are returning due to the conflict in Sudan and with a scarcity of resources and unstable power dynamics within a weak state, the country seems destined for tensions and grievances that will further South Sudan’s insecurity regardless of any electoral outcome.
President Kiir’s governance has been dominated by a corrupt system of patronage, which has rewarded loyalty and severely punished resistance while enabling him to hold power continuously for the past 12 years. As the country’s only ever president in charge of the state apparatus and its revenues, it is unlikely that he will find a sudden desire for democratic reform and take the risk of submitting himself to a legitimate contest.
International Observers Question the Legitimacy of Electoral Results
International observers raise their doubts around the legitimacy of the Sierra Leonean elections. What was predicted to be one of the most closely contested democratic run-offs on the continent this year resulted in a controversial first-round win for the incumbent president, Julius Maada Bio. In Mali, the referendum seeking to change the constitution has been passed by an overwhelming majority and in the DRC, the opposition is refusing to take part in elections that they are already declaring fraudulent.
SIERRA LEONE
Surprising first round win as opposition calls foul play
The official results saw incumbent president, Julius Maada Bio, receive 56% of the votes while his biggest rival, opposition leader Samura Kamara, obtained 41%. Pre-electoral analyses predicted that under free and fair conditions, the margin between the two candidates was likely to be much smaller and would almost certainly trigger a second round of voting. Sierra Leone has a high threshold of 55% for an election to be completed in the first round, which suggested that a second round was to be expected under fair electoral conditions. The opposition has called the election a “daylight robbery”. Kamara has highlighted that the electoral agents for his party were forbidden from authenticating the ballot counting process and has rejected the results, labelling them as illegitimate.
National Election Watch, a coalition of civil society organisations, has published a statement expressing scepticism in relation to the accuracy of the official results. They have conducted their own calculations and came to the conclusion that the turnout was actually between 75-79%, rather than the official 83%, and that President Bio received between 48% and 53% of the electoral vote. According to their calculations, the opposition candidate should have received between around 44 - 49% of the votes. In each possible scenario, the organisation’s analysis suggests that the elections should have progressed into a second round.
International agencies do not accept the results
This is a view shared by numerous international observers, who have undermined the integrity of the electoral process. They have called out “statistical inconsistencies” in the official results and have demanded for the electoral commission to publish disaggregated results per polling station.
The issues identified were discrepancies between the historic average volume of valid votes per polling state and the 2023 results. An unusually low number of invalid ballots and a strikingly high turnout in certain districts were additional occurrences which sparked distrust among observers. A number of countries and institutions, including the US and the EU, have published a joint statement expressing their concerns around the lack of transparency in the Sierra Leonean electoral process.
The country’s chief electoral commissioner Mohamed Kenewui Konneh, who has been accused by the opposition of being “the ruling party’s agent”, has informed that the disaggregated results will be published “in due course”. However, President Bio has already been sworn in for his second term in office, meaning that the disaggregated results are unlikely to change the outcome of the elections.
The runoff to the elections has been dominated by violence
The elections have been dominated by civil unrest throughout the campaigning period. The week leading up to the elections has seen both sides of the political spectrum report cases of physical threats from followers of the opposing side. The All People’s Congress (APC) has claimed that one of its supporters has been shot dead by the police, a claim that has been denied by officials. The party also stated that another one of its supporters was killed by the security forces who were trying to disperse a crowd gathering around the APC headquarters in the capital. Simultaneously, members of the President’s SLPP party have also claimed that they have been assaulted by opponents during the campaign period. Taking into consideration the intensity of the political dispute in the run up to the elections, the streets of the Sierra Leonean capital remained relatively quiet after the results were published.
MALI
Malians have approved changes to the constitution
In Mali, the referendum seeking to make amendments to the constitution has been approved with 97% of the vote. The turnout was just below 40%. The military junta, which is currently serving as the country’s transition government, praised the results stating that it is a stepping stone in paving the way for elections in early next year and a return to civilian rule.
Opponents have raised their concerns around the changes giving too much power to the president, while proponents have stated it would strengthen the democratic mechanisms of a currently weak state. There were a number of security incidents reported during the vote with gunmen entering voting centres and forcing voters to flee. Little voting took place in rebel-controlled northern regions.
Under the new constitution, it will be the president who will “determine the policies of the nation”, a right which was previously reserved for the government. The president will also be able to hire and fire the prime minister and cabinet members “and the government will be answerable to him and not to parliament, as is the case currently.” In an attempt to reduce corruption levels, politicians will have to declare their wealth. Other clauses would give amnesty to perpetrators of prior coups.
The process of conducting the referendum was marked by a period of turmoil. There was a delay in the publication of the results due to violence against electoral authorities. Before the referendum, the ruling junta asked the UN peacekeeping mission to leave the country. This was done on the accusation of “espionage”, following a UN report which very strongly criticised the governing regime for killings and massacres taking place at the hands of Malian troops and their allies.
DRC
Largest opposition party to boycott elections if conditions not met
The leader of the largest opposition party in DR Congo, Martin Fayulu, has declared that his party will not take part in the upcoming elections if the electoral procedures are not revised to fulfil democratic standards. According to Fayulu, the voter identification and registration processes are being carried out illegitimately and as a result are preparing for fraudulent elections. The politician, who came second in the last presidential elections in 2018, has stated that his party will not be fielding any candidates in the upcoming vote unless an external audit verifies the legitimacy of the current processes. The country’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), included international experts in its last review of the electoral list, who have deemed the electoral process as reliable. However, the US, EU, and other Western countries have claimed that the procedures have not been independent and transparent enough.
The lead up to the elections, which will be taking place in December this year, have been dominated by tensions, anti-government demonstrations, and complaints from opposition candidates who have stated that they have been disadvantaged due to irregularities in the process. The country is also facing significant challenges in the eastern regions which are dominated by rebel groups. Registration in those areas has proven to be increasingly difficult and elections could become difficult to carry out.
Conclusion
The elections in Sierra Leone were expected to be one of the most closely contested on the African continent. President Bio beat his biggest rival by a very narrow margin of around four percentage points five years ago. A similar outcome in which the two candidates would face each other in a high-contested second round was anticipated. Instead, the incumbent president's first-round victory has failed to convince civil society organisations, electoral observers, and the international community. This has sent a deeply alarming signal about the state of the country’s democracy, which without the lack of a universal consensus around electoral procedures severely erodes its legitimacy. In Mali and the DRC, the respective governments are struggling with conducting elections in areas dominated by rebel groups. The two fragile states are unable to fully control its borders, which has a damaging effect on the population’s access to democratic procedures.
Political Instability on the Rise as Elections Approach
Elections across the African continent are continuing to create tensions and unrest. In countries where political settlements have to be made distributing the power across multiple parties, there is a growing risk of instability that could aggravate political turmoil. In places where electoral support is divided and the incumbent’s rule is threatened, we can observe a high level of civil unrest with demonstrations becoming an element of the political landscape.
SENEGAL
Lack of Approval for Extending Presidential Term Limits
Earlier this month, Senegal experienced a period of civil unrest, which resulted in the death of at least 16 people. Although the country has now returned to relative stability, the political crisis has not been fully resolved. One of the reasons which further escalated the demonstrations was President Macky Sall’s unwillingness to rule out his candidacy in the upcoming elections, which in practice would mean that he would be seeking a controversial third term.
Public opinion surveys have shown that 79 per cent of the citizens want presidents to respect the existing term limits, which in Senegal currently stands at two. From the responses received as part of the study, it is clear that uncertainty regarding the state of the country’s democracy is rising under Sall’s rule. The percentage of citizens who claim that Senegal is ‘not a democracy’ or ‘a democracy with major problems’ has increased by 8 percentage points since 2021, now surpassing over 50 per cent of respondents.
In 2012, Sall came to power in a spirit of democratic change when he beat Abodulade Wade who tried to impose a controversial third term. Now, Sall could extend his own mandate to a total of 15 years. The president’s lack of willingness to explicitly declare his decision is sparking further uncertainty in the country. Future protests cannot be ruled out as Sall’s opponents are experiencing a growing sense of frustration. Furthermore, disqualified opposition leader Ousmane Sonko’s supporters have affirmed that they will keep fighting for as long as he is released, which could further fuel the extent of any demonstrations in the near future.
GUINEA-BISSAU
Opposition Coalition Wins the Legislative Elections
Legislative elections took place in Guinea-Bissau on June 4. These were the first legislative elections since the National People’s Assembly was dissolved over a year ago by President Umaro Sissoco Embalo. The Terra Ranka opposition coalition consisting of five different parties, led by the largest African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) party, has won the election securing over 50 per cent of the parliamentary seats. According to the electoral commission results, they have won 54 out of the 102 possible seats with the president’s G15 party gaining 29 seats. Over 20 political parties competed for seats, but only 5 managed to secure at least one place in the National People's Assembly.
Elections Encourage Praise from International Observers
Despite the president’s controversial track record around civil freedoms, the elections have been hailed as "free, transparent, and calm" by the numerous foreign observers monitoring the event. Over 200 international observers were involved in the election. Although several candidates have complained about challenges with getting the correct accreditation and reported physical attacks by other party members, the procedures were overall highly praised by the observers. According to their reports, 93 per cent of the polls opened on time and despite certain minor incidents, no “serious incidents” affected the democratic credibility of a challenging election.
Political System Creates Challenging Settlement of Power
Parliament was dissolved by the president due to what he believed were “persistent and unresolvable differences” in the context of a political crisis and that organising elections was an opportunity to “give the floor back to Guineans”. However, the president has been heavily criticised for appointing his own government officials without a formal procedure in place during the transition period. His critics have also highlighted his efforts to reduce civil freedoms and restrict free press, as a result of which independence of governing bodies has deteriorated.
Around 900,000 people out of the country’s population of 2 million were eligible to vote in the elections. Domingos Simoes Pereira, the leader of the PAIGC party, is likely to become the next Prime Minister. President Embalo has expressed his readiness to appoint Pereira to the role.
The future PM was the runner-up in the previous presidential elections, in which he lost to Embalo in 2019. With the semi-presidential structure in place and two rivals holding the two most important positions in the country, political stability might prove difficult to secure. The current president’s mandate is valid until at least 2024, which means that the political turmoil which the elections were aimed to resolve could in fact potentially provoke even further tensions.
SIERRA LEONE
Two-Horse Race for Presidency Dominated by Economic Woes
Sierra Leoneans will be casting their ballots on June 24 to elect their president. Although 13 candidates are officially taking part in the race, it is most likely going to be a direct contest between incumbent President Julias Maada Bio and leader of the main opposition party, Samura Kamara.
The main axis of Kamara’s campaign has revolved around fixing the economy as alarming unemployment levels and poor economic conditions are increasing the risk of protest in the lead up to the event. The poor economic conditions of the country and widespread poverty has led to grievances that have pushed people out to the streets last year. Despite the economic difficulties the country has been facing, investment in education and reduction of the levels of corruption are highlighted as successes of Bio’s presidency. However, due to poor global expansion and high inflation within the country, economic challenges are unlikely to be resolved regardless of who becomes the victor.
Controversy Over the Chief Electoral Commissioner’s Independence
This week, the Electoral Commission published a public notice informing that soldiers and Muslim pilgrims were able to cast their vote on the 15th of June, nine days before the actual election day. The Commission claims it holds the necessary constitutional mandate to establish such a ruling, yet the main opposition has also published its own note stating that it has not been consulted. The National Election Watch criticised the Commission saying that although its right to set and hold elections is undeniable, this has to be done with enough notice to make the voter registrars available to all parties involved.
The Chief Electoral Commissioner has been under constant criticism from the opposition party with accusations intensifying in the build up to the election. In his latest speech, Kamara has called the commissioner the ruling party’s “agent” and further condemned the alleged role of the security forces interfering with the fairness of the election. He accused the government of “arbitrary arrests and detention of opposition members without trial” and that through their military form of governance have “set to kill and bury hard-won democracy”.
Kamara has requested for the chief and all regional commissioners to be replaced by an “independent internationally accredited team” as he puts forward accusations of publishing unreliable data, not respecting deadlines regarding data publication, and lack of commitment to managing free and fair elections. Bio dismissed these claims as “preposterous” and claimed that they were an attempt of destabilising the country and compromising peaceful and legitimate elections.
Razor-Thin Margins Could Result in More Unrest
With a significant increase in the number of voters since 2018 and fewer candidates taking part than the last election five years ago, it is almost certain under fair and free electoral conditions a second round will be required in order for a candidate to reach the required 55 per cent majority. With so much at stake and the minimal margins means that both camps are unlikely to accept a loss. The opposition’s distrust in the electoral system is clear and its willingness to undermine the government’s legitimacy in ensuring free and fair elections creates a fertile ground for the results to be contested in case of Bio’s win. Simultaneously, the president and his party have not shied away from thwarting demonstrations and critical voices. Local media reports have claimed that groups of protesting youth were arrested as a result of protests in multiple cities calling the Chief Electoral Commissioner to resign. Tensions in the country are brewing and could result in further protests and arrests in the last week leading up to the elections. With the electorate closely divided, no result on June 24 is likely to bring conciliation.
Conclusion
Elections across the continent are predominantly raising hostilities between political camps and have been accompanied by civil unrest and demonstrations in many countries. In Guinea-Bissau, the electoral procedures have been praised for their fairness by international observers. Although the elections were proposed by the president as a solution to the existing political turmoil, the consequent cabinet reshuffling that gave a strong electoral mandate to the largest party opposing the president is unlikely to bring political stability in the following months.
In Sierra Leone and Senegal, two countries where the opposition supporters have taken to the streets to voice their disapproval of the government’s actions, animosities are growing as the election date approaches. Where the incumbents have been unable to maintain stable support, civil freedoms are being undermined and democratic mechanisms being weakened have become a recurring phenomenon. There is an increased effort on the part of incumbents to erode democratic processes when elections show any promise of transitioning power. The risk of further instability and contesting election results is increasingly possible, particularly in Sierra Leone.
Protest Clashes & Continued Oppressions on Freedom
Civil unrest in Senegal has brought a crisis to one of the most politically stable countries in the West African region. Uncertainty around the electoral procedures and treatment of political opponents has created civil unrest in a country, which for years has been heralded as a model of democratic stability for the region. Additionally, approaching elections in other countries on the African continent are also increasing tensions as controversies over the opposition’s right to fair elections have been doubted.
SENEGAL
On 1 June, Ousmane Sonko, one of the Senegalese opposition’s most prominent politicians, was sentenced to two years in prison. Sonko was charged and convicted with “corrupting the youth” by having intimate contact with someone younger than the age of 21. Although Sonko denied the allegations, his conviction means he is now disqualified from taking part in the February 2024 election. Sonko was also charged with raping a woman and making death threats against her but was acquited on those charges. Feminists in Senegal are in fear that the acquittal of rape charges will set the country back in its fight for gender equality as the court dismissed a rare chance in attaining justice for victims of sexual violence. Aminata Libain Mbengue of the Feminists’ Network of Senegal stated, “This trial is a huge setback that will leave its mark on the history of women’s rights.”
His detention has sparked widespread protest in multiple cities across the country, with Sonko supporters accusing the government of using the judicial system to instrumentally eliminate potential opponents for the upcoming elections. Violence began at a central university campus in Dakar and spread into other cities. Among the sites targeted by the protestors were homes of ministers, foreign-owned supermarkets, and petrol stations. As of 10 June, there have been 16 deaths as a consequence of the riots.
Protest Motives
The protests were not purely caused by the arrest of Ousmane Sonko alone. They were incited by President Macky Sall’s attempt to secure a controversial third term. He was elected for the first time in 2012 and then reelected in 2019. The constitution was amended in 2016 and states that the president cannot serve “more than two consecutive mandates”. President Sall is claiming that an update to the Constitution during his time in office exempts his first term from the rule. He has not yet officially declared a desire to run, but has not ruled it out, sparking concerns over the condition of the country’s democratic legitimacy.
This situation resembles the conditions in which the current president came into power over 10 years ago. His predecessor, Abdoulaye Wade, tried to secure a third term by claiming that his first term was exempted from the laws first implementing a limit on presidential terms in 2001. In 2012, Sall’s victory put an end to those plans. His win occurred in the spirit of a civil movement which pledged resistance against Wade’s regime and also sparked protest. Now, President Sall is using the same argument as his predecessor. Taking into consideration that the Senegalese elections are scheduled to take place in February, Sonko’s detention rules out a key rival for the president. Opposing voices claim that the judicial decision to punish the opposition leader is a purposeful attempt at eliminating the president’s fiercest opponent before any official campaign has even begun. However, this has been denied by the government.
Detention
Sonko is under house arrest in his home in Dakar. Sall acknowledged the protests and condemned “unprecedented violence” in his message earlier this week, but did not mention anything about Sonko nor about his personal plans of pursuing the presidency. Others who have expressed support for Sonko and tried to visit his house have also been detained. As a result of the protests, the government has cut out internet access across the country. Whatsapp and social media users have been unable to log into the respective platforms. Officially, this was done “to stop the dissemination of hate and subversive messages". Sonko currently remains “effectively under house arrest” and his supporters have warned that they will continue the fight for his release.
Consequences for Citizens
Since the most deadly days of the riots, the protests have been subdued and unrest has diminished. Despite the unrest reducing, the consequences for the citizens are still very much real. Few petrol stations have remained open “in fear of attack”, with many banks still remaining closed. Many citizens still have to queue for hours in order to withdraw their money. Demonstrations are economically unsustainable for many residents. Significant groups have been unable to go to work due to the scale and intensity of the demonstrations causing a security threat to their livelihoods.
Tensions Likely to Rise Again
As long as President Sall does not rule it out, pursuing a third term remains an option on the table. He is expected to share a decision at the end of the month. One scenario is that he does not seek a third term but instead extends his current term to 2026, postponing the election by an additional two years. This option has been divisive and has not been met with the opposition’s approval.
Internationally, Senegal has been celebrated for stability and democratic maturity in a region often tainted by political unrest. However, the detention of Ousmane Sonko is likely to be a heavily politicised event for both sides of the political spectrum. Opposition supporters are likely to return to the streets, as a lack of declaration from the president will only increase tensions in the build up to the elections.
ZIMBABWE
On 31 May, the Zimbabwean government passed the ‘Patriotic Bill’, which raised concerns around further restrictions put on the opposition’s ability to campaign. Although the bill is yet to become law, it has already raised significant controversy due to the list of actions that are expected to become penalised on its merit. The Patriotic Bill prescribes punishment as harsh as the death penalty for “damaging the sovereignty and national interest of Zimbabwe”.
Threat to Freedom of Expression
Human Rights groups have expressed concerns that the bill will criminalise Zimbabweans taking part in meetings outside of the country and that its “extraterritorial application” will have a significant effect on reducing civil society activities abroad. Other potential punishments for “anti-patriotic” behaviour could include prison sentences for up to 15 years, citizenship annulment, and banishment from taking part in elections. The opposition highlights how the bill could be used instrumentally in order to abuse the government’s authority and clamp down on opponents by impeding freedom of expression. It is deliberately broad and covers an unspecified scope of punishable offences. Human rights groups and opposition forces are worried how it can give the government additional instruments to penalise activism and civil society actions.
SIERRA LEONE
Sierra Leone will be holding its combined presidential, parliamentary, and local representative elections on 24 June. The vote will be a rematch of the 2018 elections where current president Julius Maada Bio beat opposition leader Samura Kamara by a narrow margin. President Bio will need over 55 per cent in the first round in order to secure his reelection without a second round. However, two political parties whose candidates together earned around 10 per cent of the votes five years ago are not fielding candidates in the upcoming elections, which could make the margin between Bio and Kamara even closer.
Revision of Electoral Procedures
Changes were made to the parliamentary and local electoral system in 2022 with a district proportional representation system replacing the previous first-past-the-post process. The reform was controversial upon introduction, but was ultimately deemed legal by the Supreme Court. As a result, the new system favours the two main parties and increases the risk of smaller parties being swept out of parliament. Opposition has also been raising concerns around the voter registration process, which according to them disadvantages certain electorate groups and as a result could tip the vote in favour of the incumbent president.
Kamara’s Court Case
Samura Kamara has been accused of mismanagement of public funds during his years as a foreign minister between 2012-2017. The court case first began in 2021 and has been extended for more than two years. The case will be heard in July, which according to critics is not coincidental and the slow pace is aimed at giving the opposition leader an additional distraction throughout the intensive campaigning period.
Razor-thin Margins
The country already experienced protests in August of last year, which resulted in over 20 deaths. The manifestations were provoked by an increase in cost of living and an overall poor economic condition of the country. Although the scale of the protest is unlikely to repeat, clashes between supporters as well as the security agencies cannot be ruled out. With a highly contested election, grievances around electoral procedures and lack of economic stability are likely to generate high levels of tensions throughout the political spectrum. Four years ago, Julius Maada Bio beat Samura Kamara 43.3 per cent to 42.7 per cent in the first round, 51.8 per cent to 48.2 per cent in the second round. The razor-thin margins could become even thinner between the two candidates in the elections later this month.
Conclusion
Protests in Senegal have brought unrest to one of the most politically stable countries in the West African region. The detention of one the opposition’s most prominent politicians pushed his supporters out to the streets, yet the president’s lack of transparency around his potential bid for a third term further adds to the civil unrest. The protests serve as a reminder that when a realistic transition of power appears on the horizon, tensions can escalate regardless of the existing maturity of the democratic system.
In many countries across the continent the incumbents hold an imbalanced level of influence over state structures, which deprive the opposition of a fair challenge. Zimbabwe serves as an example of a country where the government’s control of the legal and political sphere in reality minimises opportunities for a legitimate transition of power. The risk of these mechanisms leading to unfair elections remains high throughout the continent.
Elections Already Declared Rigged
Several African countries are struggling with insecurity as they prepare for elections this year. Backlashes against corruption and impunity are rising, with protestors facing oppression and violence. Opposition leaders and civil society activists are facing enormous challenges to have their voices heard. Unfortunately, the outlook on upcoming elections is grim as voting procedures are already being ruled as unfair.
ZIMBABWE
President Mnangagwa declared that he will announce the official date for the 2023 elections this week. Having an official date will conclude a lengthy period of speculation around the electoral calendar. Previously, the only piece of information known to the public has been an indication that the elections are likely to take place in July or August. As the official date will be announced, all sides of the political spectrum will begin an intensive campaigning period in the coming weeks.
One of the main axes of the existing campaign is the economic stability of the country. Zimbabwe has been facing high levels of inflation, poor economic performance and alarming level of food insecurity. The opposition's narrative is that the current regime is entrenched in corruption and that only a new government has the capability to stimulate a much needed economic upturn. The government claims that it has been able to guide the country through difficult economic decisions, which have yielded positive results and that they deserve another mandate to further promote growth and stability. The true scale of support for both the government as well as the opposition forces is unclear. However, fair democratic elections are unlikely due to the level of control President Mnangagwa’s allies have in the electoral process.
Audit Declares Zero Confidence
The Research and Advocacy Unit conducted an audit of pre-election procedures in the country and concluded that “there cannot be any confidence in the forthcoming elections” and that “conditions for a free and fair election are absent”. The report highlights political influence on the electoral commission, restrictions on freedom of expression, and challenging registration procedures, especially for the opposition urban voter base as some of the main irregularities present in the current process.
Controversial Procurement Law
President Mnangagwa is receiving backlash from opposition leaders and activists during his attempts to distance himself from a recent law passed that is aimed at concealing how taxpayers’ money is spent in the health ministry. “The notice published in the government gazette in early March declared that construction equipment and materials, biomedical and medical equipment, medicines and drugs, and vehicles – including ambulances – are among the list of items of national interest and shall not be publicly disclosed.” Civil society organisations were moving to challenge the law in court, declaring the statute as unconstitutional and demanding transparency.
Mnangagwa claimed that the document was published without his approval, indicating an environment of “confusion” within the top levels of the government. “While further investigations are underway, the government wishes to advise the public that, on the instruction of His Excellency the President, the document in question has been rescinded as it has no standing at law, in policy and in terms of set government procedures. It thus should be disregarded,” stated Chief Secretary Misheck Sibanda. Concern is rising regarding the published law, causing worry that political leaders can act with “impunity”. According to political analyst Rashweat Mukundu, “What we are dealing with is a mafia that feels they are above the law that uses state power to abuse national resources. So regardless of the fact that this was withdrawn, the mere fact that someone sitting in a government office thought about this tells us of the level of the collapse of state management in this country.”
Military Intimidation
The military and intelligence forces have been heavily involved in controlling state structures, which has enabled them to informally campaign for the incumbent President. They have been accused of intimidating voters, preventing opposition candidates from campaigning in the government’s strongholds, heavily influencing the electoral bodies, and holding control of the electoral technological infrastructure.
These elections do have the potential to cease ZANU-PF’s domination on Zimbabwean politics. Yet, the true scale of the opposition’s support will only become clear in the coming months. The election is likely to be closely contested. A recent poll based on 1,000 phone respondents has shown that currently opposition leader Nelson Chamisa is leading the incumbent President by over 10 per cent. However, these figures should be taken with extreme caution and cannot serve as any form of indication of what the final result will look like. The scale of the government’s interference in the electoral procedures as well as their ability to maximise outcomes in its rural base are likely to be key factors in the final results. With so much control over governmental instruments, a transition of power away from President Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF in a legitimate and democratic process is highly unlikely.
DRC
Attacks on Protestors
Security forces in the DRC have used tear gas to thwart anti-government demonstrators last week. Approximately 10 protesters have been detained, nearly 30 police officers were injured, and three policemen have been detained for using violence against a minor - an act which was condemned by the country’s human rights minister. The protest was called for by opposition leaders and people came out onto the streets in order to express their disapproval of reported infringements in voter registration for the 2023 December elections.
The opposition leaders have been accusing the government of not following constitutional procedures in appointing judges, nominating partisan members into the electoral commission and obstructing registration for voters in opposition stronghold regions. Grievances of the protesters were further exacerbated by the rising costs of living and lack of state control over the activities of militia groups in the east, where violence has been a significant threat to the security of citizens. The elections are about six months away and with a prevalent security crisis within its borders, electoral irregularities and reported ethnic discrimination of voters, tensions are likely to remain high throughout the campaign period.
LIBERIA
Voter Registration Ended
Earlier this month, the Liberian National Elections Commission (NEC) ended its voter registration process. It was the first time the country used a biometric registration system in order to reduce the number of double registrations. However, the Elections Coordinating Committee (ECC) identified a number of irregularities that could impede the fairness of the democratic process. The NEC’s lack of consistency in conducting eligibility checks, as well as instances of voter trucking (the movement of voters to different locations in order to affect election results) and voter violence have all reduced the legitimacy of the procedures.
The elections will take place on October 10th and due to Liberia’s strict requirement of 50 per cent majority means that the winner will most likely be chosen on the basis of their ability to build political alliances. Incumbent President Weah has been facing pressure due to accusations of corruption against senior allies, weak provision of public goods and services, and lack of adequate investment in the country’s infrastructure. However, he maintains a strong mandate from the ruling Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) party, especially in the face of a fragmented opposition.
ANGOLA
President Cutting Russian Ties
President João Lourenço appears to be severing ties with Russia in order to deepen relations with the US. Lourenço is pushing for a meeting with President Joseph Biden this year in order to gain Western support as rumours are spreading that Lourenço is seeking a controversial third term. Lourenço stated in December that he wants the country to replace Russian military equipment with American, marking a significant development that could heighten US-Russian tensions in Africa as Angola is Russia’s fourth largest market for arms.
Conclusion
Countries across the region are facing irregularities in their electoral processes. In the cases of Zimbabwe and the DRC, state mechanisms are creating an unfavourable environment for opposition groups. As a result, regardless of the true levels of support for the opposition, current governments hold significant levels of control over the electoral procedures. An indication that a transition of power in these countries is highly unlikely. Furthermore, state weakness continues to create a significant security risk in the DRC where the government’s inability to control militias in the eastern regions is likely to further exacerbate mistrust in the government. With the declaration that ‘free and fair’ elections are unlikely in some states, electoral violence is expected to be heightened and widespread.