Election Risks in the Shadow of Conflict and Legal Weaponisation

Introduction

In this week's Election Watch series, we will analyse the potential impacts of armed conflicts, states of emergency, and the weaponisation of the legal system on the upcoming presidential elections. Recent developments indicate a resurgence of military attacks in Sudan, ongoing armed rebel attacks in the DRC, and the extension of a state of emergency in Togo due to persistent armed rebel attacks. In Zimbabwe, reports indicate that there is a high probability of the Electoral Bill being finalised. If passed, this bill may result in the disqualification of numerous opposition leaders from running in the upcoming election, highlighting the continued weaponisation of the legal system. As we closely monitor these events, it is crucial to assess their potential effects on the democratic process

Sudan

Army and Paramilitary clash in Khartoum.

Intense fighting broke out on April 15th in Khartoum between Sudan's national army and paramilitary forces, resulting in the death of almost 100 people and injuries to hundreds of others. The fighting has spread to nearby cities, including Omdurman and Bahri, and has persisted for two days, with no signs of either side backing down. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have called for an immediate end to hostilities, but their calls have been ignored.

The conflict stems from a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the national military, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), over how the paramilitary forces should be incorporated into the military and who should oversee the process. This disagreement has persisted since the 2021 "failed coup attempt" and has further delayed Sudan's transition to a democratically elected government.

Despite the army's declaration that "the hour of victory is near," the situation remains uncertain, and the possibility of a civil war cannot be ruled out. The military's stance of not negotiating with the RSF until they are dismantled indicates a winner-takes-all approach that is not conducive to a peaceful resolution. International and regional intervention may be necessary to halt the fighting and resume negotiations. However, the international community's willingness to provide such intervention may be limited due to potential resource constraints and the recent killing of international workers in the ongoing fight.

As the conflict continues, the level of violence against civilians is likely to increase, and the goal of holding democratic elections this year seems unattainable. The situation is currently uncertain and expected to remain so as both sides are anticipated to release statements that support their respective positions, contributing to the fluidity of the situation.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Ethnic rebel attacks surge in the Eastern Congo

Dieudonne Lossa, the president of a civil society group in Banyari Kilo, reported that on April 15th, the CODECO ethnic Lendu armed group killed more than 42 individuals in Ituri Province. Ethnic-related attacks between the Lendu militia groups and Hema ethnic self-defence groups have been ongoing since 2017, but recent reports show a sudden surge in such attacks. The increase in ethnic-related violence in Eastern Congo worsens the displacement of communities, depriving them of meaningful participation in electoral processes.

Security concerns in the DRC persist, despite the withdrawal of the March Movement (M23) rebel group from some parts of the North Kivu province, with countless local disputes arising from clashes over natural resources. As long as these disputes remain unresolved, ethnic-related armed attacks will persist, resulting in increased personal insecurity. The pending election is likely to attract communities that have some level of peace and security, while those in areas mostly affected by rebel attacks will have restricted participation due to displacement. The conduct of democratic processes, such as voting, will remain exclusionary as long as armed attacks continue in certain regions, limiting the participation of displaced communities.

Togo

State of emergency extended in Togo

On April 6th, the Togo parliament voted to extend the state of security emergency in the Savanes region for an additional 12 months due to an increase in terrorist attacks near the Northern border. President Faure Gnassingbé's initial state of emergency, approved in June 2022, ended on March 13th, 2023, but is now further extended. Since November 2021, the Northern region of Togo has been prone to rebel group attacks, with jihadist groups having control over substantial areas in the region. However, the prolonged state of emergency may jeopardize civil liberties, especially during the forthcoming elections, and the risk of violence against voters, election observers, and workers is high. In some cases, governments may misuse their emergency powers to aim at political rivals, control the press, or reduce access to information, resulting in a reduction of people's freedoms. This endangers the democratic process and may lead to lower electoral participation. Additionally, rebel groups may intimidate voters to influence the election outcome. Despite the state of emergency being extended to counter rebel groups' incursions and restore security, it reduces comprehensive electoral participation. The re-establishment of the state of emergency in the Northern region after a brief lapse between March 13th and the first week of April 2023 highlights a likely persistence of insecurity in the medium to long term, as jihadist groups occupy vast areas in the Northern region. Unless this control is weakened or eliminated, the electoral process carried out will likely be symbolic and exclusionary, with fewer people participating due to the higher personal security risk.

Zimbabwe

Electoral Amendment Bill a Priority in Parliament

On April 14th, the Minister of Justice, Ziyambi Ziyambi, announced the government's intention to prioritise the passing and implementation of the Electoral Amendment Bill for the upcoming elections. If passed, the bill would disqualify individuals with recent convictions for crimes of dishonesty or those with pending criminal cases from running for office. However, critics argue that the bill may be unconstitutional and biased against opposition members, such as Job Sikhala, who has been held without trial for over 275 days, as the state maintains that he is accused of “inciting public violence.” If the Electoral Amendment Bill passes without revisions, it may exclude approximately 14 other opposition leaders with pending criminal cases, which could have negative implications for the democratic process and exacerbate the legitimacy crisis of the ruling party. The recent increase in arrests of leaders and members of the Citizens for Coalition Change (CCC) has been criticized as a legal weaponisation strategy aimed at intimidating political opponents and further restricting the democratic space for opposition voices.

Conclusion

The upcoming presidential elections in various African countries are at risk of being undermined by armed conflicts, states of emergency, and the weaponisation of the legal system. In Sudan, the ongoing fighting between the national army and paramilitary forces may escalate into a civil war, making it impossible to hold democratic elections in the short to medium term. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, ethnic-related attacks continue to worsen the displacement of communities, depriving them of meaningful participation in electoral processes. In Togo, the prolonged state of emergency reduces comprehensive electoral participation, and the risk of violence against voters, election observers, and workers is high. In Zimbabwe, if passed, the Electoral Amendment Bill may disqualify several opposition leaders from participating in the election, further highlighting the continued weaponisation of the legal system.