South Africa’s Strategic Balancing with Russia

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered more pronounced non-alignment in the global south. Africa represents a relevant example, as demonstrated by the abstention of 26 African countries during a March 2022 vote at the UN General Assembly to condemn the Russian invasion. Abstentions by African countries have drawn the attention of the United States, causing the US to become weary of growing Russian and Chinese influence in Africa. South Africa’s abstention is particularly notable because of its leading role on the African continent. It has the second largest economy, after Nigeria, and the fifth largest population. What the South African political leadership refers to as non-alignment - while Western actors see it as an increasingly pro-Russian stance - originated well before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

In a world where the rise of China and its growing alignment with Russia now challenges American unipolarity, South Africa is trying to keep itself in a position where it can benefit from relationships with both polarities. Non-alignment requires a diplomatic balancing act that is difficult to manage. South Africa, after abstaining at the UN assembly, has made several choices that have caused it to lurch further into the Russian camp, arousing US and European discontent. In February 2023, coinciding with the anniversary of the Russian invasion, the South African navy participated in a joint exercise with the Russian and Chinese navies. The timing and actors involved made the decision to participate in the military exercise seem contradictory to non-alignment. The exercises allowed Russia to demonstrate that it could still rely on relations with two key global powers. The same exercise conducted in 2019 (before the war) did not receive criticism from the United States and European partners.

In May 2023, South Africa decided to grant Putin diplomatic immunity to allow him to attend the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit to be held in August 2023 in Johannesburg. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president. The Rome Statute, the court's institutive treaty to which South Africa is a signatory, obliges South Africa to arrest Putin in the event he steps on South African soil. The decision to provide Putin with diplomatic immunity represents a further snub to the United States and Europe, who aim to isolate Russia internationally. At the same time, it demonstrates South Africa's need to capitalise on its presence in the BRICS bloc by maximising the benefits of its relationships with other member states. 

In December 2022, South Africa reportedly indirectly supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to U.S. intelligence, a Russian ship, the Lady R, transported arms and ammunition from Vivino naval base in Cape Town to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. The ship had been placed on the  US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control’s sanctions list in May 2022 for alleged arms shipments. The Lady R, which departed from the same Russian port on October 3, 2022, circumnavigated Africa, stopping at several ports. Once past the Cape of Good Hope, the ship reportedly turned off its transponder, making it untraceable. However, some residents identified the ship as being in close proximity to Simon's Town naval base near Cape Town. This raised suspicions as cargo ships seldom dock at naval bases. On the night of December 7, 2022, the ship’s contents were unloaded and reloaded. This is the moment when arms and munitions were purportedly loaded onto the vessel. 

South African authorities have been unable to provide a concrete explanation for the allegations surrounding the Lady R, and President Cyril Ramaphosa has called for an investigation to ascertain what happened. This is more likely the result of poor communication between different ministries than a desire to conceal information. Communication between South African institutions has often been problematic, affecting the handling of sensitive dossiers that require a collaborative response. The Foreign Ministry communicated that it was not aware of the Lady R's arrival. Although the South African authorities continue to deny the allegations; if confirmed - this incident would undermine the credibility of the African country's professed non-alignment. 

Regardless of the outcome of the investigation launched by President Ramaphosa into the Lady R incident, South Africa is growing increasingly close to the Kremlin. While China, in strengthening its relationship with South Africa, has focused on trade and economic aspects, Russia cannot offer as much. Consequently, Russia has mainly focused on the political and ideological aspects of its relationship with the African country. This was done through an effective communication campaign aimed at putting distance between African states and Western governments. The main themes revolve around colonial legacies and perceived political interference by Western states. Russia presents itself as an actor untainted by a colonial past that is not interested in interfering with the internal politics of African states. This rhetoric has been very successful in states that were left in the background during the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, only to be called upon to act in defence of Western interests during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.