The Conflict in Tigray: A Consequence of an Unequal Political System
The outbreak of the Tigray war is to be understood as a simple national opposition. Although the conflict officially started with the events of November 2020, the tensions between its belligerents go back much earlier. Until the appointment of current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018, Ethiopia was governed by the coalition of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), composed of four independent, ethno-regional parties: the Oromos, the Amharas, the Tigrayans led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, (TPLF), and the southern peoples.
The TPLF, a historic opponent of the Derg military junta (1974-1991), emerged from Ethiopia's civil wars as the country's main political force despite Tigrayans representing only six percent of the population. Their objective is to reinvent a multinational state where sovereignty would rest with the different nationalities that make up Ethiopian society. Their idea was endorsed by the vote on a new constitution in 1994, giving rise to the present federal state of Ethiopia. The text is the direct result of a policy of "ethnic democracy," inspired by Joseph Stalin's theory of nationalities, which was widely shared at the time by EPRDF leaders. However, in the practice of power, it quickly became clear that most decisions were taken by the TPLF, which transformed the coalition into an autocratic power in which it was in a hegemonic position.
Between 1994 and 2018, Ethiopia was a federal state in name only, ruled by a hegemonic coalition representing a minority population. After 30 years on the basis of this model, violent protests finally erupted in Ethiopia in 2016. The form of the state as well as its practice of power is questioned, which leads to a deep crisis for the coalition at the head of the country. It is in this context that the figure of Abiy Ahmed asserts himself. Appointed Prime Minister thanks to his arrival at the head of the central party, the Oromo leader quickly presented himself as the antithesis of the Tigrayan ideology.
Ahmed advocated a unified Ethiopia and compared ethnic federalism to the colonial period. He saw the constitutional recognition of ethnicity in the 1994 constitution and ethnonationalism as a risk to the unity and stability of the country. However, according to Mehdi Labzae, a sociologist and political scientist specializing in Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed goes further by quickly presenting himself as a multi-positional. This group supports a pan-Ethiopian ideology based on the principle of the people's right to self-determination, excluding any ethnic dimension in the distribution of power, which contrasts with the federalist ideology of the Tigrean elites. Other ethnic groups, such as the Oromos, never had a representative in power before Ahmed and the people of Afar, which borders Tigray, joined the protest.
Abiy Ahmed will thus play on these oppositions and secure the support of the aggrieved Amhara elites in power by promising to pursue a warmongering policy against the Tigrayans. As of 2019, the TPLF complains that it is being pushed out of power and marginalized, especially since the central government accuses it of participating in the destabilization of the north. A few months after his appointment, Ahmed also announced his intention to carry out major reforms to change the existing federal system. He proposed, for example, centralization and nationalization of the central party, as well as the merger of all ethno-regional parties into a new party: the Prosperity Party. All of the parties accepted this proposal, with the exception of the TPLF.
The events of 2020 are therefore the result of these national and historical tensions. The simple issue of elections set the stage for the conflict. When Abiy Ahmed came to power, he was appointed Prime Minister following the resignation of Haile Mariam Dessalegn in April 2018. This sudden change brought an unelected figure to power, allowing the opposition to challenge his legitimacy. Although the central government announced elections in 2019 for the spring of 2020, the deadline was postponed because of the Coronavirus pandemic.
The situation escalated when the TPLF leaders decided to hold their own elections in Tigray in September 2020. The central government's postponements are seen as an affront by Tigrayans, who see these delays as a means of extending the terms of office of newcomers to power. The TPLF won elections in Tigray, but the election was deemed illegal by the federal government, which subsequently announced the suspension of general funds for the region. The conflict officially erupted in November 2020 when the federal Ethiopian government launched a military operation in response to the TPLF attack on a military base housing the federal army's Northern Command. Tigrayans justified the attack by claiming it was a preemptive strike against a military intervention that the government had been planning for weeks. From then on, dialogue broke down and a deadly conflict began that would last almost two years.
Pretoria Agreements
The talks that began in Pretoria in October 2022 were agreed to by the TPLF leadership and the Ethiopian army, following an invitation from the African Union. The two sides committed to an end of hostilities on November 2, under the leadership of several key African political figures (Chairperson of the African Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat Faki, former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, and former South African Vice President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka). Two commitments were made with immediate effect at the end of the initial discussions: the restoration of humanitarian services and supplies in northern Tigray, as well as basic services - telecommunications, electricity, fuel, and banking - which the region had been deprived of since the beginning of the war - and the restoration of law and order, including the protection of civilians, especially women. A roadmap has been put in place reaffirming the commitment of the various parties to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ethiopia while respecting the constitution. Transitional justice mechanisms are also provided to settle wartime disputes, although these have not yet been detailed.
Entitled the "Agreement on Durable Peace and Permanent Cessation of Hostilities," the talks now focus on the gradual disarmament of Tigrayan forces, as well as the return of humanitarian aid to the devastated region of Tigray. With the latter being the most sensitive issue, Tigray representatives have asked for security guarantees. Additionally, the treaty emphasizes that "the disarmament of heavy weapons must be undertaken concomitantly with the withdrawal of foreign forces from the region."
Apart from the cessation of fighting, work on concrete modalities for the effective signing of a peace agreement between the two parties remains outstanding as of yet. After almost a month of deliberation, the latest commitment was the opening of a humanitarian corridor to Tigray on November 12. Signed by Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Armed Forces (ENDF), and General Tadesse Werede of the TPLF, the resolution comes amidst ongoing discussions in Nairobi on the implementation of the peace agreement reached in South Africa.
Although this decision provides some temporary relief for the people of Tigray, the UN says the region is experiencing one of the worst humanitarian crises Ethiopia has seen in the past 30 years. At the time of the ceasefire decision, 5.2 million required humanitarian assistance in Tigray, including 3.8 million who needed healthcare, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The region has remained cut off from the world for more than two years, leaving people so vulnerable that this assistance seems minimal compared to the needs that could be expected locally. Moreover, the Tigray region currently remains closed to journalists, by the decision of the Ethiopian central government, which makes it impossible to verify information about the allocation of aid on the ground.
Root Causes
At the opening of the talks this October, UN Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Hanna Tetteh emphasized that "the agreement is only the beginning of the peace process.” This is not the first time that peace agreements have been reached between representatives of the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan forces in this conflict. In March 2021, a humanitarian truce was agreed upon between the two sides, which stopped the fighting for five months. After that, between last August and this January, fights re-emerged in Tigray causing thousands of more victims. Even if the new discussions give rise to general hope, the situation remains fluid and unstable in northern Ethiopia, with an upsurge in fighting that could occur at any time. In addition to these recent events, the contributing factors that are at the heart of the war continue. These include the persistence of ethnic federalism as a system of government and the important role played by Eritrea in the conflict.
Regarding ethnic federalism, researchers Medhi Labzaé and Sonia Le Gourillec argue how the unequal foundations of the system have resulted in the current war. Using the linguistic and ethnic criteria as the main tool for institutional division, in a country like Ethiopia whose populations are very heterogeneous and numerous, has led to several dysfunctions in the Ethiopian political organization. For example, as regions are divided along ethnic lines, land allocation within them is also based on this criterion which has created conflicts over land distribution, as in 2010. At that time, the Ethiopian government granted nearly 3 million hectares (which corresponds to 30000 meters) of land under lease agreements to multinational companies, to the detriment of local pastoralists and farmers already hard hit by severe and recurrent droughts. Their protests were violently repressed by sending the army, demonstrating the dysfunctional nature of the ethnic system. Those events have raised awareness of how this system was leading to the exacerbation of political tensions surrounding resources of the country between the average Ethiopian communities and how it always benefits the ones in power first (since 1990 the Tigrayans).
Another concern with ethnic federalism is that over the three decades that it has been in place as a model of government, the federal state has become confused with the apparatus of the hegemonic TPLF party. Since the coalition is entirely dominated by the Tigray minority, its power has given rise to a certain authoritarianism. According to Le Gourillec, an ethnically based state where each group can hope to be represented and have access to power and resources can only function in a democratic space. This is due to the high risk of creating frustration and anger on the part of communities that feel they have been deprived of power or are insufficiently represented. It is exactly for this reason that the Amharas and Arfars joined Abiy Ahmed in his strategy of creating post-ethnic politics through the Prosperity Party and then participated in the war effort against the Tigrayan forces. Taking into consideration the various problems with ethnic federalism, it can be deduced that the political system and its organization are one of the main reasons for the internal conflict.
The talks that began last October have so far made no mention of restructuring or even amending articles 39 and 47 in the constitution that provide the basis for ethnic federalism. Thus, if the talks do not address the root causes of the tensions that have plagued the country for decades, there is little chance that the talks will lead to lasting solutions at this stage.
The second structural problem is the involvement of the Eritrean army in the conflict. Although it was not involved in the talks, Eritrea is a major player in the Ethiopian civil war. However, the extent and importance of its role has never been revealed publicly in detail, as can be seen from the statements of some mediators during the talks such as Uhuru Kenyatta said: "We are not here to discuss any particular foreign country, we are here only to talk about peace in Ethiopia" when asked about the departure of Eritreans in northern Tigray. Since November 2020, Abiy Ahmed has stated that the armed forces receive military assistance from Eritrea to support the government’s fight against the TPLF. Eritrea has been a long-standing enemy of the Tigrayan leadership, an element that Abiy Ahmed has used to destabilize them since 2018.
The violence and resentment between Eritrea and Tigray have significantly contributed to the current conflict. As soon as he came to power, Abiy Ahmed initiated a rapprochement with Eritrea, which earned him the Nobel Peace Prize following the signing of the peace agreements in July 2018. Although this reconciliation is intended to bring stability to the Horn of Africa, this diplomatic opening allowed Ahmed to destabilize the former ruling elites by getting closer to the TPLF's biggest regional enemy. As evidence of this, when the conflict broke out in 2020, the Eritrean army supported the official Ethiopian forces and took part in crimes against humanity in northern Tigray, such as the Aksum massacre. In November 2020, Eritrea’s army arbitrarily massacred more than 100 civilians in this town, randomly executing people in the street. According to Amnesty International, "the Eritrean army engaged in widespread looting and extrajudicial killings.”
Securing Peace
So far, progress in resolving and easing inter-ethnic tensions at the initiative of the Ethiopian government has been slow. Some provisions of the first version of the peace agreement have been passed since late December. Although Internet and telecommunication services have not yet been allowed throughout the region, the town of Mekele is now connected to the national power grid on December 6. Besides, the country's main bank, Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, announced on December 19 that it was resuming financial operations in some towns in Tigray. In addition, an Ethiopian government delegation made its first official visit to the capital of Tigray on December 26th, to "oversee the implementation of the main points of the peace agreement.” However, the situation remains worrying. Emergency measures such as the provision of humanitarian aid remain insufficient and suffer from poor logistics, mainly due to the fragile functioning of basic services and the cutting of telecommunications networks. No official date has been announced for their restoration throughout the region. However, their resumption is essential for the effective administration of international humanitarian aid and to report on the reality of needs on the ground.
Most alarming is the continued presence of the Eritrean army and security forces, as well as militias from the Ethiopian region of Amhara. The two groups, which have supported the federal army in the conflict, have still not been invited to the ongoing talks in Pretoria. In recent testimonies, Tigrayans authorities and aid workers have accused the latter of looting, executions, and abductions of civilians. Such cases include two aid workers informing the AFP (Agence France Presse) that "Amhara forces are looting homes and government offices [...]" and that "Eritrean soldiers are also continuing to abduct youth”.
To find an effective solution to the current conflict, a tripartite agreement must be concluded between the Ethiopian government, the TPLF, and the Eritrean armed forces. The stakes are high. If the Tigray forces finalize a peace agreement with the central Ethiopian government, the alliance between Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki can be expected to be jeopardized, as such an agreement would call into question the basis of their rapprochement in 2018. A consequence of this could be further destabilization of the region with potential conflict between the two states, solidifying historical resentments. Among the Amhara, tensions with the Tigrayans date back decades resulting in the misallocation of fertile land inherited from the ethnic federal system since the TPLF came to power in 1991. The resolution of the historical resentment between these two ethnic groups is thus necessary to ensure internal stability in Ethiopia. If a peace agreement is not reached, fighting could resume in the Tigray region, increasing violence against the Tigrayan population and worsening the humanitarian crisis.