2022 Malaysian General Election: Implications of the voting amendment
This article is part of a mini-series covering Malaysia’s 15th general election (GE15). The election will see radical new constitutional amendments come into play, as well as a plethora of familiar figures at the helms of competing coalitions. This election comes after four years of political breakdown, corruption charges, and instability.
What is the new amendment?
In 2019 the Dewan Rakyat passed the Constitution (Amendment) Bill that lowered the voting age at federal and state level from 21 to 18, as well as reducing the age at which a person can stand for election to 18. Another aspect of this bill was to allow for the automatic registration of persons as and when they turn 18. During debates, it was pointed out that automatic voter registration, which will also be applied to those over 21 who not already registered, will add nearly 7.8 million voters to the register.
Implications for GE15
The most obvious effect of this amendment on GE15 will be the increase in the size of the electorate. GE14 saw nearly 15 million voters register, and over 12 million turn out to vote, culminating in an 82% turnout rate. For GE15, however, there is over 21 million registered voters, an increase of over six million. Besides having significantly increased electorate, this bloc will compose millions of voters for which there exists no prior data on voting patterns and preferences. While turnout (measured against total registered not total electorate) in Malaysia is higher than in many democracies such as the UK and the US, it is unknown how the new voters aged 18-21 will respond to their new democratic responsibility. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the mass of previously unregistered voters will turn out in significant numbers. Comparing turnout between GE15 and prior elections, however, will not be a wholly useful measurement, due to the fact that the Malaysian electoral system has undergone such major reforms.
How is this affecting party politics?
This amendment was a significant development for parties, who are increasingly aware that there may be a kingmaker to be found in the nation’s young population. The amendment was raised as an issue by the Undi18 grass roots movement which was started by students in 2016. Since the 2018-20 PH (Pakatan Harapan) government were the coalition who took up and passed the amendment in 2019, the PH are likely to benefit from those new voters. Indeed, analysts have suggested that the amendment was in some part envisioned as a means of safeguarding the younger vote that had propelled them into government. Following their collapse in 2020, however, their reputation was heavily damaged, meaning their support is no-longer guaranteed.Who these new voters intend to cast for, therefore, is not yet clear.
As discussed, the PH will likely benefit, but the outcome of the election will also depend on whether the huge new bloc of voters turnout in large numbers. The BN (Barisan Nasional) are expected to see their older and more conservative voter base turn out reliably, so it is likely that the election could be decided by participation rates among young and outside voters. This further problematises our ability to predict the eventual outcome of the election. Even as polling data intensifies over the next two weeks, there remains a large question mark over participation rates; a factor which could decide the election.
UMNO, who make up the core of the BN coalition, have been more responsive to their youth wing who recently fielded their list of preferred candidates. The youth wing has been pushing for a 30% quota of young candidates, and with the amendment in play, party leadership appears to see this as a route to success among the younger voters. This is in part related to the fact that their ex-leader, Najib Razak, who is currently serving 12 months in prison for a corruption scandal, was a major force on social media. Since august 2022, commentators in Malaysia have highlighted the fact that while his considerable influence online helped the party during his years of corruption trials, the party needs a new strategy for generating popular support.