East Timor’s accession to ASEAN: Is 2023 the year?
Introduction
After a long accession process, 2023 will likely be the year for East Timor to join ASEAN. Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen, who holds the annual presidency of the organisation, announced this during the inaugural speech of the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. The small Southeast Asian country is still considered unprepared to sustain the costs associated with its membership, though nevertheless, significant progress has been made that is encouraging member states to push for their accession. During the meeting, ASEAN members committed themselves to accelerate their membership process, while East Timor’s Foreign Minister, Adaljiza Magno, was invited to participate in the meeting as a guest.
Concerns about East Timor’s membership
East Timor was recognized as an observer of ASEAN in 2002 following its independence, and it officially applied for membership in 2011. Dili, East Timor’s capital, is convinced that its membership would bring substantial economic gains via access to ASEAN markets and regional integration. Despite its small dimensions - with a population of 1.3 million people - and its high poverty rate, East Timor is a strong and stable democracy, a type of political regime less represented in the region. The country received a 72/100 (“free”) in the 2022 Freedom House report, the highest score in Southeast Asia.
Although all ASEAN members have expressed their support for East Timor’s admission to the organisation in 2013, some States consider the small Asian country not yet developed enough to join. This is due to the concern, pointed out especially by Singapore, regarding East Timor’s capacity to sustain the economic and institutional costs of its membership. In particular, the concerns surround the country’s economic development, its lack of human resources, and the scarcity of its infrastructures and institutions. Since independence, East Timor has suffered from erratic economic growth and a high unemployment rate. Dili also depends on its oil and gas revenues, which constitute 90% of its exports, while others such as the agricultural sector occupies 80% of the country’s workforce and are significantly underdeveloped. Furthermore, literacy and professional training rates are discouraging, at 68.7% in 2015. While this is not unproblematic, the socio-economic indicators are no worse than those of other ASEAN countries before accession, such as in Laos in the mid-1990s.
Additionally, Dili’s close relationship with China is another point of concern. China was the first State to establish diplomatic relations with East Timor in 2002 and it has since played a fundamental role in the country’s economic recovery, primarily through extensive infrastructural investments. Beijing’s presence in the country acts as an irritant for several ASEAN members, as well as Australia, which are wary of Chinese influence in the region. This is unlikely to be a major barrier, however, as not only does East Timor consider Chinese investments crucial for its domestic growth, but ASEAN members are also aware of their importance to Dili’s development, and are willing to tolerate them.
Will 2023 hold the answer?
Dili has important allies within ASEAN that make their accession particularly likely. Over the years, both Cambodia and the Philippines have entered into important relationships with East Timor. The common catholic faith has been a bridge between Dili and Manila, a unique bond in Southeast Asia. As a result, the Philippines have supported East Timor’s ASEAN membership since 2002, while their armed forces have often trained the East Timorese military. Phnom Penh, on the other hand, has recently assumed particular importance for East Timor. Cambodia is seen as a potential developmental model for East Timor, a project driven by the common investment relationships with China. In 2019, Prime Minister Hun Sen expressed support for East Timor to become the 11th member of ASEAN and the organisation's cooperation with the small nation increased in light of Cambodia’s 2022 ASEAN presidency. Indonesia, which invaded the country in 1975 and annexed it until a UN-sponsored referendum in 1999, also strongly supports Dili’s membership - a previous hurdle in their accession. Jakarta is now convinced that East Timor’s acceptance will boost commercial ties between the two nations, and since it is due to take over the ASEAN presidency in 2023 there is a confidence that next year could see a breakthrough.
This bid is also supported by East Timor’s assimilation into ASEAN’s cultural norms, such as by adopting a non-conflictual approach in its foreign policy aimed at not irritating other member states. Last year, under Cambodian pressures, East Timor abstained from voting on a UN General Assembly Resolution which intended to condemn Myanmar’s military junta. This approach, however, could prove to be counterproductive. East Timor’s strategy to be accepted into ASEAN should be guided by its internal development, mainly of its educational system, rather than be based on foreign policy alignments. From this perspective, it is noteworthy that the main advocate of East Timor’s ASEAN accession is its President José Ramos-Horta, who won the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize, together with the then Bishop Carlos Felipe Ximenes Belo of Dili, for his commitment to bringing freedom and justice to his country. East Timor should preserve its democratic identity which benefits it greatly in western eyes and the international system. Its refusal to condemn human rights abuses and international law violations also sends an alarming message to ASEAN members and contradicts the democratic values that it has so far preserved.