President Xi shifts Chinese “grey-zone” operations into higher gear around Taiwan

Article thumbnail of a Taiwanese F-16 fighter jet intercepting a Chinese H-6 bomber, February 2020, courtesy of Taiwan’s Defense Ministry

Following President Tsai Ing-wen’s convincing Taiwanese presidential re-election win with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2020, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has shifted its “united front”/”grey zone” operations into a higher gear. One way the PRC has engaged in “grey zone” operations is through consistent incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ).

This has prompted Taiwan’s defence ministry to now publicly disclose the almost daily military incursions over the waters between the Southern part of Taiwan and the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands in the South China Sea. It has been reported that last year Chinese jets made a record 380 incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ. These continuous incursions have culminated into Beijing’s latest show of force on the 13th April 2021 where eighteen fighter jets, four nuclear-capable bombers, two anti-submarine aircraft and an early warning aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ. The Chinese aircraft flew in the airspace south of Taiwan, passing through the Bashi Channel that separates Taiwan from the Philippines. 

These operations encompass highly sophisticated political warfare apparatus designed to undermine Taiwan’s democratic institutions, create social instability and further isolate Taiwan internationally. The increasing frequency of these operations can be attributed to President Tsai’s rejection of the “One Country, Two Systems” model that has seemingly failed in Hong Kong.  Moreover, since President Biden took office there have been three passages through the Taiwan strait by American naval vessels, demonstrating the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence stated that during the ships journey through the strait, ‘the military used joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to monitor movements at sea and in the air around Taiwan’. Moreover, the U.S. State Department have recently issued guidelines that will enable U.S. officials to meet more freely with Taiwanese officials.

These provocations have rattled Beijing, leading to the intensification of its “grey zone” operations around the “breakaway province”. The latest incident came just one day after U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken warned it would be a “serious mistake” for China to try to change the status quo through force. Blinken also stressed Washington’s commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act to ensure the self-governing island of 24 million “has the ability to defend itself”. Furthermore, Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister, has vowed Taiwan ‘will fight the war if we need to fight the war’ adding ‘we will defend ourselves to the very last day’.

U.S. – China strategic competition is set to continue into 2021 and the future. John Aquilino, the U.S. admiral chosen to lead the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command disagreed with his predecessor that China could attempt to invade Taiwan within six years, stating “my opinion is that this problem is much closer to us than most think”.The credibility of the U.S. alliance structure is coming under strain and countries like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines will all be monitoring the situation closely.