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Extreme weather events will shape Australia’s future summers.

As the Australian summer is underway, numerous extreme weather events have already occurred all over the country. From recording the hottest day (50.7°C) since 1960 in Onslow, Western Australia, to heavy rainfalls and widespread flooding on the East Coast, Australia is on track to witness more and more of these severe weather events if nothing is done to limit global warming to below 2°C. Greater risks of floods, tropical cyclones, and bush-fires are likely to shape future summers to come. 

Although the 2021-2022 Australian summer does not compare with the devastating 2019-2020 Black Summer, the extreme weather events recorded during these two periods are connected to global warming caused by human activities. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44 °C between 1910 and 2019. A widespread and sustained drought that began in June 2017 and the extremely hot and dry conditions of 2019 - Australia’s hottest and driest year - facilitated the quick spread of bush-fires throughout Eastern Australia, leading to what has been dubbed as the “Black Summer.” Conversely, the 2021-2022 summer presents different characteristics due to the influence of the La Niña weather pattern. The combination of the current wet climate and warm atmosphere facilitates intense rainfalls as a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour. As such, states whose soils are already saturated with water, such as Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria, risk being home to dangerous flooding. Tropical cyclones are also more frequent during La Niña summers and are expected to be above average this summer. Despite the wet weather, central and western parts of Australia, usually hotter and drier than the rest of the country, still face bush-fire risks. 

Climate change is a controversial topic in Australian politics, often leading to heated debates between the government and the opposition as well as within political parties. As the global society is transitioning towards a low-carbon future, Australia is regularly called out for its inaction. The Australian government has failed to reduce emissions over the past decade. It has cut its spending on renewables and has withdrawn from the UN’s Green Climate Fund. Australia is one of the dirtiest countries per head of population, relying heavily on the burning of coal for its electricity. The mineral is Australia’s second-biggest export behind iron ore. Instead of phasing out coal, Canberra is pledging to dig some more. The pressure put on Australia by the international community ahead of the COP26 eventually made Canberra commit to the net-zero target by 2050. Yet, the government does not plan to legislate the objective. Rather, it hopes to achieve the target by investing in technology development and by relying on consumers and companies to reduce emissions. Despite the government’s unwillingness to tackle climate change, Australians seem to think it is time to act on it. According to the Lowy Institute’s Climate Poll 2021, 60 percent of Australians said “global warming is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now, even if this involves significant costs.” 50 percent of the respondents also believe the government’s main priority in terms of energy policy should be “reducing carbon emissions.” Regarding coal mining and exports, 63 percent of Australians support a ban on new coal mines opening in the country while the same percentage of respondents supports reducing Australian coal exports to other countries. 

As the planet warms, extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity, thus threatening people’s safety, resilience, housing, and access to food and fresh water, among other things. Given the situation, climate change should be Australia’s main national security issue. Yet, climate change remains at the margin of Australia’s national security agenda despite the threat it represents to the territory. Past and current governments have implemented inadequate climate policies over the years and have continuously ignored calls for action from climate scientists, the international community, and civil society. As a result, the Australian population, economy, and unique ecosystem are now bearing the brunt of the government’s inaction. The country is already experiencing higher temperatures, longer fire seasons, more extreme droughts and rainfalls, and finds its housing and infrastructure threatened by rising sea levels. This trend is likely to continue and worsen if Australian policy makers keep de-prioritising the fight against climate change in favour of the coal industry.