As the West continues to debate how best to respond to the imminent threat of Russia invading Ukraine, India seems to have made its stance clear by abstaining from a United Nations Security Council vote allowing the body to discuss the threat. India was joined in this abstention by Kenya and Gabon, with the ten other countries voting in favour of the agenda, and China joining Russia in voting against. Although India’s actions make it seem as if it has firmly chosen Russia’s side, it is important to consider this vote against the broader context of Indian foreign policy.

Indian Strategic Autonomy

India has long adopted a strategic autonomy attitude towards its foreign policy. This perspective prioritises Indian interests, and foreign policy actions are taken with the intention of balancing international relationships to maximise Indian growth. India’s former stance of non-alignment during the Cold War bipolar order has now become one of multi-alignment in the current multipolar system. India’s goal has long been to expand its neighbourhood and regional influence while maintaining its position as a major international player. With India at the precipice of global-power status, however, this non-committal attitude may not be sustainable. Indian policymakers are slowly starting to realise that to acquire the resources and international support needed to reach this level, certain relationships must be prioritised and developed. 

The Russian Problem

The biggest obstacle to India’s regional influence is China. As China seeks to grow its global influence - especially through the Belt and Road initiative - its sphere of influence becomes larger, posing a direct threat to India’s sovereignty. These tensions have escalated several times over the last few years, most notably with clashes at the India-China border in Kashmir. As this regional rivalry continues to grow, India’s relationship with Russia has become one of increasing value. In a geopolitical sense, Russia’s ongoing battle with the US and India’s with China has solidified the Russia-India bond. From a historical perspective, the Soviet Union has been a regional ally to India since Indian independence in 1947, often stepping in to provide support and mediation in situations such as the Second Kashmir War that Western countries largely ignored. Since 2000, this relationship has evolved under Vladimir Putin and former Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh, followed by Narendra Modi. The Declaration of Strategic Partnership signed by both countries has seen an increasingly widening and deepening bilateral relationship, and annual summits and frequent meetings between the two heads of state continue to foster this relationship. India’s relationship with Russia, then, stands as an exception to the traditional dogma of strategic autonomy.

US-India Relations

The second exception to India’s foreign policy strategy, however, is the United States. The US-Russia relationship reflects the tensions of the Sino-Indian situation, putting India in a precarious position. Modi, building on groundwork laid by his predecessors, has begun to steer India away from non-alignment and towards a more interest-focused approach to foreign policy. With a slight departure from strategic autonomy, however, India can no longer sit on the sidelines as the relationship between its two biggest partners further deteriorates. India’s decision to abstain from this crucial vote can then be seen as a way of hedging its bets and attempting to maintain both relationships. India has a history of abstaining from issues concerning Russian-induced geopolitical crises, most notably in 2014 at a vote on Russia’s actions in Crimea. India’s relationship with the US, however, is far too important to be damaged for the sake of a historical tie that arguably has diminished in tangible value. The US, especially under Joe Biden, has increasingly expanded its relationship with India in recent years. Biden’s administration has brought India into its domestic and international dialogues in recognition of its global status and power, and both leaders have spoken repeatedly about their deepening partnership, intended to address global issues such as climate change. The QUAD partnership to govern the Asia-Pacific region also serves as an important avenue for US-India relations. Regarding continental Asian security and leadership, the relationship between the United States and India is arguably the most important in balancing Chinese geopolitical influence in the Asia-Pacific. 

Looking Ahead

With a slow progression away from its historic foreign policy stance of strategic autonomy, India is presented with a dilemma between Russia and the United States. While some have considered India’s vote abstention to be a firm step towards the Russian side of the argument, the US maintains that its relationship with India “stands on its own merits”. Although Biden will likely look to support from India should the situation escalate, for the time being it seems as though India’s hedging has not damaged any relationships. As it stands with Russia, the Russia-India relationship has been an enduring one. From Indian independence through to the fall of the Soviet Union and into the twenty-first century, Russia and India have continued to develop and deepen their partnership. The unique relationship between the two countries, despite diverging strategic interests, is likely to remain strong as long as both countries perceive a mutual benefit. However, in the event that Russia does invade Ukraine, the US, European Union and NATO will almost certainly take tangible actions. India’s current foreign policy stance can be considered as strategic self-interest; in this increasingly likely situation, then, India will have to decide whether the United States or Russian relationship is more self-serving in the long run.