Philippine Elections: Implications of the Returning Marcos Dynasty
After six years of Robert Duterte’s presidency, Filipinos will be heading to the polls on the 9th of May, where Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will most likely be elected. Duterte’s half a dozen years have been mired by controversy and the breakdown of democracy and human rights, but many fear that Marcos Jr. will signal the end of free and open democracy in the Philippines. This spotlight article highlights who Marcos Jr. is, why his election may have drastic consequences for democracy and human rights in the Philippines, and what effects this may have for the Sino-American strategic rivalry.
Macros Jr. is an experienced politician, having already served in the Philippine senate and as a governor. Furthermore, his true political pedigree arises from his father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who ruled the Philippines under martial law from 1965-1986 after which he was ousted by the ‘people power’ protest. During this period there were over 11,100 confirmed cases of human rights violations, with the full figure expected to be much higher. In confronting this legacy, however, Marcos Jr. has undertaken an intensive whitewashing campaign through social media to glorify his fathers presidency. Most recently, the presidential candidate has called his father a ‘political genius’ and began to reconstruct the narrative that under his firm grip the country was a safer and more prosperous place. As in the case of his father, Marcos Jr. has also already faced charges of tax evasion and graft, though in the run up to the election these have been shaken off and framed as personal attacks against him and his political campaign. As a result, the fact that Marcos Jr. is seeking to run on his father’s coattails is deeply worrying for the future of democracy and human rights in the Philippines.
Dynastic politics are not new to the Philippines, and to a large extent families are bigger staples of democracy than political parties. Running for Marcos Jr.'s vice-president is Duterte’s daughter, Sara, which is solidifying the political power of the two families over national politics. Duterte’s own presidency has been characterised by his brutal - and extrajudicial - War on Drugs that has claimed the lives of over 12,000 people, with 2555 of these coming at the hands of the police. Alongside the Duterte’s, Marcos Jr. has also come into an alliance with the Arrayos and the Estradas, which analysts suggest will give him significant power in both the legislature and the executive, crippling the country’s supposed separation of powers. With little chance that the challenger, Leni Robrebro, can make up the current 30 point gap with Marcos Jr., the country is almost certainly to endure another six years of democratic breakdown.
The Philippines currently exist as one of the US’ key positions of forward deployment, and following the Enhanced Defence and Cooperation Act (EDCA) in 2014 the country’s status as a treaty ally was revitalised. This is potentially under threat with the accession of Macros Jr. due to his long ties with China, and his commitment to reconnect with the economic hegemon. More likely, however, this will be of limited consequence for the US’ continued ties with the archipelago nation. Duterte, also a life-long anti-American, similarly began his presidency by seeking to steer the Philippines away from the US’ influence by building closer ties with China. Despite this, due to the public's highly critical opinion of China and the steadily mounting tensions in the South China Sea, he was forced into cooperation with the Trump administration. Meanwhile, due the the Philippines’ strategic position as a key military base in an increasingly strategic region, the US is unlikely to put them under pressure for their democratic backsliding. Consequently, despite the fact that the Philippines are likely to undergo a significant rise in authoritarian administration and weakening democracy and human rights, there is likely to be a level of continuity on the international stage.