Tensions over the South China Sea to remain high as Biden reaffirms regional commitments and Beijing displays its air-power

A US carrier group on Sunday crossed into the disputed South China Sea to carry out ‘Freedom of navigation’ operations and reassure regional partners of the US’s continuing support for their struggle with China over island and maritime claims in a region which facilitates 1/3rd of all global shipping.

China has decried the move as “not conducive to peace and stability in the region”. However, at the same time in its own provocative move the Chinese air force carried out a large-scale incursion of Taiwanese airspace using fighters and nuclear-capable bombers for the first time. No comment has yet been made by Beijing as to the specific reason for this, though it is just the latest escalation in a historic dispute over both competing South China Sea claims, and the very nature of Taiwanese sovereignty, with both Beijing and Taipei claiming to be the legitimate Chinese government after the Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) saw the split of China into the two self-governing entities.

Taiwan as a key US partner, particularly due to its strategic location and area-of-denial capability has received a “rock-solid” US commitment to support it in its ongoing dispute with Beijing, as Biden continues Trumps policy of increasing cooperation with Taipei. Similarly, the Biden administration has also reaffirmed its commitment to other key regional partners like Japan, while also appointing several Cabinet members who have made “aggressive” public comments against Beijing.

These points combined with the longer-term commitment later this year for the US and Royal Navy to carry out further South China Sea operations means that any hoped for ‘great reset’ in US-China relations is now highly unlikely as Biden continues Trumps policy of confrontation with Beijing over economic and security matters. The South China Sea thus will remain a primary arena of this growing great power competition.