Georgia’s Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence - Present and Future Implications
Overview
On 8 April 2024, the Georgian government reintroduced a bill on the transparency of foreign influence, which sparked massive protests throughout the country. The bill was reminiscent of Russian legislation passed in 2012, imposing limits and restrictions on individuals, civil society groups, and nongovernmental organisations receiving funds from abroad, also called “foreign agents.”
Notably, this bill was initiated in February 2023 and was immediately followed by peaceful demonstrations urging the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party to withdraw it. Following street protests and condemnation from the West, the government eventually withdrew the bill.
When the GD decided to resurrect the bill in 2024, massive rallies followed in different parts of the country. Despite the public outcry and EU recommendations, the parliament adopted the law in May 2024. This article mainly focuses on the effects of the “foreign agents” law on Georgia’s internal politics, how a recent drift from the Western orbit will alter geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus, and Georgia’s future identity.
Political Polarisation
Adopting the law on “foreign agents” has already affected Georgia’s democratisation process. By reintroducing the bill on transparency in the parliament in 2024, the ruling GD party directly targeted nongovernmental organisations, media outlets, and other civil society groups that receive more than 20% of their budgets from abroad. In addition, the types of foreign sources are not limited to organisations but may also include individuals. Based on this law, similar to Russian legislation adopted in 2012, it has become compulsory for such organisations in Georgia to register as “foreign agents.” Due to its content and limitations, the law on transparency is also called “Russian law” in Georgia.
According to public statements by Members of Parliament, the legislation intends to increase financial transparency and strengthen democracy in Georgia. Many government officials have denied that the law and its aims were based on Russian legislation. Georgian Dream members have emphasised the significance of taking additional transparency measures by passing the law. However, private legal entities and media organisations in Georgia must make their financial information publicly available and ensure that they comply with all electoral regulations if actively involved in political affairs. Georgians view the latest measures to impose control on civil society organisations as part of a “Russification” process, which further escalated the crisis and increased political polarisation within the country.
Figure 1: Protests in Georgia against the “Russian law,” Source: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
From Democracy to Autocracy?
Due to the recent developments undermining democracy and Georgia’s pro-European future, for the first time, the US State Department has imposed visa restrictions for Georgian leaders who are directly involved in the crisis or belong to the ruling party. Such a decision from the United States, Georgia’s strategic partner, is alarming. Additionally, based on the latest statement from the US Department of Defense, Washington will postpone the iteration of the military exercise Noble Partner. Nevertheless, the US will continue cooperating with the Georgian Defence Forces to support Georgia in safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The review of bilateral relations was preceded by the Georgian Dream leadership accusing the United States and the European Union of attempting to overthrow the Georgian government.
Mass street protests and anti-Moscow sentiments were reminiscent of Ukraine’s 2013 Euromaidan Revolution. As Georgians saw joining street protests as a viable option to alter the government’s plans, more than 200,000 protesters took to the streets of Tbilisi in May 2024. Though peaceful demonstrations put significant pressure on the government, they were ineffective in achieving change. The government refused to withdraw the bill on “foreign agents.” As a result, Western partners have harshly reacted to the GD’s actions and political decisions. Despite the crackdowns and the passage of the controversial legislation, young Georgians, particularly Gen Z, continue to pressure the government ahead of the parliamentary elections in October 2024.
Ignoring public opinion and cracking down on the protests in Tbilisi resulted in deteriorating relations with the European Union (EU). Given that Georgia became a candidate country in December 2023, such a drift from the Western orbit indicates that it will become increasingly difficult for the Georgian government to follow the required agenda to achieve EU membership. Even though becoming a full member of the EU is mentioned in the Georgian constitution, the rapprochement with Russia in recent years has seriously damaged relations with Euro-Atlantic partners. Based on the European Council’s conclusions, democracy in Georgia is backsliding, and the adoption of the law on transparency of foreign influence is why accession talks with the EU have been halted. In addition to freezing Georgia’s EU membership process, the European Peace Facility, the EU’s off-budget funding mechanism, has suspended €30 million in defence aid to Georgia.
Ahead of the parliamentary elections, the Georgian Dream party has continuously made significant efforts to legitimise its power. Tightening control on civil society groups, critical media, and violent crackdown on peaceful protesters show that Georgian authorities continue discrediting independent voices. The Georgian government has also overridden the presidential veto, which was an unsuccessful attempt by President Salome Zourabichvili to change the governmental decision-making and prevent jeopardising Georgia’s path to EU membership. Based on a Freedom House report on the state of democracy in Central European and Central Asian countries, Georgia is slowly turning into a semi-consolidated authoritarian country. Notwithstanding this, it is still possible for the government to change its political trajectory before the October parliamentary elections.
Geopolitical Implications
Analysing Georgia’s internal political crisis requires considering the role of Russia and its growing influence in the South Caucasus. In recent years, the Georgian government has adopted a foreign policy more favourable to Russia. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the GD party has refused to join the West and support its sanctions against Moscow. Dependence on Russia and potential economic benefits emboldened the Georgian government, which allowed a visa-free regime with Russia and opened direct flights. Thousands of Russian citizens moved to Georgia, establishing businesses locally. Russia’s influence over Georgia is increasingly growing, as shown by the adoption of the “foreign agents” law, but also because Moscow has officially declared that it is ready to work towards re-establishing diplomatic relations with Tbilisi, after they were severed following Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008. This willingness to facilitate rapprochement raises concerns.
As Russia remains an influential actor in the South Caucasus, EU Member States are likely to be more cautious about considering Georgia a reliable partner in the development of the Middle Corridor, a crucial trade route connecting Asia and Europe. From a foreign policy perspective, the above developments will completely transform the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus. By granting candidate status to Georgia in 2023, Brussels has enhanced its position in the South Caucasus. Nevertheless, as Georgia-EU relations continue to weaken, the EU is shifting its attention towards Armenia, which currently seems more eager to move closer to the Euro-Atlantic community, as it has undertaken to become less dependent on Russia following the collapse of the Republic of Artsakh.
Conclusion and Forecast
In adopting the controversial legislation on transparency, Georgia has disrupted its EU integration process. Besides the tightened control and regulations, the critical challenge for Georgian society is severe polarisation, which will eventually harm democracy. The upcoming parliamentary elections in October 2024 will be crucial for Georgia’s aspirations. Likely, the EU’s enlargement policy will mainly depend on Georgia’s internal political environment and whether Georgians will jointly follow the “deoligarchisation” plan and uphold democracy long-term. Adopting the “foreign agents” law and its consequences may temporarily push Georgia further away from its EU partners. Still, despite Russia’s growing willingness to get closer to Georgia, such development will be less likely. Most Georgians, almost 88%, are willing to join the European Union and believe that Georgia’s future lies in Europe. With Georgia’s European future at stake, new forms of civic activism and further mobilisation will shape the political landscape ahead of the parliamentary elections in October.