Georgia Walking a Fine Line between Russia and the West

On 20 May 2023, news broke out that the daughter of Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, had arrived in Georgia and was attending a wedding; just as protests were being held across the country over the resumption of direct flights between Georgia and Russia following a four-year hiatus. Both of these events increased the frustrations of the majority of the Georgian population who strive for their country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. 

Since the Russian invasion of Georgia in August 2008, which resulted in the military occupation of 20% of Georgian land by Russia, the government of Georgia has walked a thin line trying to maintain strong relations with the West, all the while appeasing Russia in more recent years. Direct flights between the two countries were banned by Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, in 2019 following violent clashes between the police and protesters in Georgia after a Russian lawmaker visited the country. After the 4-year break, the decision of President Putin on 10 May to lift visa requirements for Georgian citizens and to resume direct flights between the two countries was announced by the Russian Transport Ministry, also triggering large protests across the country, most significantly at Tbilisi International Airport. Importantly, even though this decision was unilateral, it is suggested that an agreement from the Georgian government would have been necessary for its implementation. The Georgian government’s involvement in this is even more evident through the Georgian ruling party’s, Georgian Dream’s, claims of ‘xenophobic’ protests. The latter statement was criticised by the President of Georgia, Salome Zourabichvili, claiming that “This is an insult to the Georgian people” and that it is unacceptable to accuse Georgians of xenophobia, given that the public has accepted hundreds of thousands of migrants from Russia in the last 18 months.

The arrival of the daughter of Sergey Lavrov to Georgia, reportedly by land, added fuel to the fire and brought further condemnations from President Zourabichvili who expressed disbelief that the Georgian government was unaware of the presence of “the daughter of the highest-ranking official, from Putin’s immediate circle, who is under sanctions”, urging the government to protect Georgia from Russian individuals on the sanctioned list. Furthermore, politically, this decision was met with strong discontent by EU diplomats in Georgia, arguing that if Georgia is set on EU integration in the future, they should follow the decisions made by the 27 EU Member States with regards to sanctions. However, Georgian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic and Sustainable Development, Levan Davitashvili, pointed out that Georgia is not yet an EU member State and therefore the country’s actions and decisions, be it political or economic, cannot be equated to that of EU members. The Minister further noted that the EU position with regards to trade with Russia is not clearly defined, pointing to the supposed EU-Russia trade increase of over $5 billion in 2022, and therefore called for an open dialogue with the EU to discuss any issues within this context. However, it must be noted that conflicting reports exist with regards to the amount of trade between Russia and the EU following the invasion of Ukraine and the establishment of sanctions; this is mostly due to the varying trade relations between Russia and the individual 27 EU Member States. 

With regards to the resumption of direct flights, several interests exist in increased relations between the two countries. For the Russian government it is clear; they seek to promote their efforts in improving relations with Georgia, simultaneously strengthening transit opportunities, and establishing shipment prospects of prohibited and sanctioned items. Whereas for Georgia, the direct flights provide benefits with regards to increased trade and tourism as well as diffusion of tensions following the 2008 war. However, these benefits are not met with as much enthusiasm by the general public as by the Georgian government. Although taken in isolation, the resumption of flights and the lift of visa requirements may not be alarming, it is however when they are coupled with the recent more pro-Russian approaches of the Georgian Dream party that the government is put under heavy scrutiny.

Recent Pro-Russian Movements

Although the Georgian government has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expressed solidarity, and has provided humanitarian aid and shelter for Ukrainian refugees, following the invasion, Georgian Prime Minister, Irakli Garibashvili, announced, and has stuck by his announcement, that “considering [Georgia’s] national interests and interests of the people, Georgia does not plan to participate in the financial and economic sanctions [on Russia], as this would only damage our country and populace more.” Furthermore, other politicians such as Irakli Kobakhidze, head of the Georgian Dream party, can also be seen to have a pro-Russian sentiment through his public statements. Between February and July 2022, he has criticised Russia nine times mainly on its invasion of Ukraine, whereas his criticisms towards Ukraine equated to 26, mainly focusing on Ukraine’s condemning comments of Georgian officials, and 57 towards the West, including criticisms towards the EU Ambassador in Georgia, as well as accusing the US Ambassador in Georgia, Kelly Degnan, of pushing the country to go to war with Russia.

More pro-Russian acts within Georgia can be traced back to the Foreign Agent Bill that was announced by the Georgian Parliament on 9 March 2023, which included the requirement for any organisation within the country receiving more than 20% of its annual funding from overseas to be declared as "agents of foreign influence". Criticism stemmed from the similarity of the aforementioned legislation to one introduced by President Putin aimed at silencing his opponents. The draft legislation was coined as the “Russian law” in Georgia and resulted in mass protests in Tbilisi denouncing the bill. The Georgian Dream party subsequently withdrew it.  Russia claimed that these mass protests were an attempted coup orchestrated from abroad. What the protests in fact demonstrated is the growing distrust in the government, as identified by President Zourabichvili, and demonstrated the Georgian public’s desire for the country to remain on a pro-Western path and to be part of the European family. In light of this, the Georgian government has been receiving criticisms over the state of its democracy, and has somewhat damaged its ties with the EU.  

Hence the resumption of direct flights and the case of Lavrov’s daughter in Georgia are not isolated instances and have evidently further exacerbated the criticisms and raised concerns over “Georgia's EU path and Georgia's commitment to align with the EU decisions in foreign policy”, as stated by EU Spokesman Peter Sano. The Georgian government, for the most part, has downplayed the political implications of the most recent events and has focused more on the economic benefits of the $400 million a year that Russian tourism would bring to the country. Hence Russia’s attempts of harming Georgia’s European integration through the normalisation of relations between the two countries, as identified by the US Ambassador to Georgia, Kelly Degnan, have been arguably ignored by the government and are more of a concern for the Georgian public and President Zourabichvili.

Georgia’s Western Path

Following Georgia’s Independence in 1991, the European path was enshrined in the country’s constitution, emphasising the country’s pro-Western aspiration. This is precisely why as a response to the recent actions by the government that during her speech on Georgia’s Independence Day on 26 May 20203, President Zourabichvili called on the government to meet the Georgian public's “will to strengthen the country's independence, establish democracy, and join the European family”. This call is vital for Georgia’s application for EU candidacy and its “perspective” position (rather than the candidacy status that was granted to Ukraine and Moldova) which includes following and implementing the reforms suggested by the EU; among them judicial reform, de-oligarchisation, addressing organised crime, improving the media sources, addressing political polarisation, and considering independent individuals in the appointment of a new Public Defender. However, reports have identified that only two of the twelve suggested reforms have been addressed. In this vein, it is important to note that for Georgia and its population, Euro-Atlantic integration, or EU and NATO membership, is not just a desire but a need for Georgia’s national security, even more in light of the war in Ukraine. The recent decision undertaken by the ruling party, Georgian Dream, can be seen to be drastically different from that of the population's wishes. This can be seen through the protests held in Georgia over the past couple of years as well as through recent studies that identified that 89% of the Georgia population supports EU membership, and 80% wish to join NATO in the near future. This is precisely why the recent protests have seen as many as 160,000 participants chanting the slogan “Home to Europe'' and carrying EU flags.

Bigger Picture

When looking at the most recent developments with direct flight resumption, it is important to question why these efforts from Russia to increase relations with Georgia are being made now, and what this means for Georgia. Essentially, experts have claimed that Russia is employing a carrot-and-stick approach, the carrot being economic benefits for Georgia, and the stick being the spread of fear of the same situation as what Ukraine has found itself in. Ultimately, there is no denying that Russia is employing a long-term strategy for Georgia, part of which relies on the maintenance of power and the loyalty of the current government and the ruling party, Georgian Dream, who is also in turn benefiting from increasing relations with Russia and branding itself as a party looking for a resolution to the Russo-Georgian conflict. The start of the flights between the two countries have even been followed by bilateral talks on the resumption of railway traffic through the occupied region of Abkhazia. There are probably one-sided hopes that this may even lead to the recognition of Abkhazia’s sovereignty by Georgia, which will further deepen the country’s ties to Russia and will also deepen the divide between Georgia and the West. Furthermore, there is a likelihood that these decisions may be implemented by the Georgian government against the population’s will, labelling the actions as restorations of relations with the occupied regions. 

Overall, with the increasing relations between Georgia and Russia, it may be questioned what these decisions, which may be coined as confidence building measures or conflict resolution, would mean for Georgia’s overall security. Evidently, if Georgia strives for EU candidacy status and eventual EU and NATO membership, and hence the security that this guarantees, one would expect the government to comply with the existing sanctions against Russia, implement the reforms suggested by the EU and not be distracted by Russian influence. However, the resumption of flights may only be the start of the increasing distance away from Georgia’s Western path and towards closer ties to Moscow.