‘De facto’ and Autonomous Territories: Nagorno-Karabakh

Lasse Steinmayer
Written By London Politica

Executive Summary

  • The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has reached a turning point following Azerbaijan’s September 2023 offensive.

  • This offensive led to the dissolution of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh and the mass exodus of over 100,000 Karabakh Armenians.

  • While peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have made progress, key obstacles remain, namely the withdrawal of international claims, and deployment of third-party forces.

  • Armenia’s 2026 elections introduce further uncertainty, with nationalist factions opposing concessions to Azerbaijan.

  • Militarisation on both sides, combined with stalled peace negotiations, raises the risk of renewed hostilities in the coming years.

  • The next year will be decisive in determining whether peace stabilises or conflict reignites.

London Politica
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