Solar Rays on the Silk Road: Political risks of China’s investments in solar energy through the Belt and Road Initiative

In 2019, the Chinese government announced the establishment of the BRI International Green Development Coalition, with the aim of aligning the Belt and Road Initiative with the Paris Agreement. China’s global comparative advantage in the renewable energy sector has established a strong basis for China's collaboration in renewable energy with BRI partner countries. Indeed, the first half of 2023 emerged as the greenest in any 6-month period since the BRI’s inception in 2013, with approximately USD 4.8 billion invested in renewable energy sources. This report focuses on understanding the patterns of Chinese overseas green investment and uses three case studies on solar energy to highlight the complexities of the energy transition: Pakistan, Kenya, and Vietnam. The report illustrates how BRI investments exacerbate existing economic, political, and social constraints while at the same time creating new risk vectors, potentially undermining environmental benefits, straining financial resources, and intensifying local and regional political risk.