China’s response to the upcoming NATO Summit agenda

Up until 2019, China remained largely overlooked by NATO. However, the 2019 NATO communique marked a significant shift in NATO's perception of China. It was the first time that China was explicitly mentioned and acknowledged its growing influence as a source of both challenges and opportunities. Since then, NATO has adopted a more assertive stance on China. NATO's Strategic Concept, approved at last year's NATO summit in Madrid, has now identified China as a systematic challenge to Euro-Atlantic Security. 

This year's NATO summit, scheduled to take place on 11-12 July in Vilnius, Lithuania, will serve as a platform for addressing a wide range of issues such as deterrence and defence, support for Ukraine, defence investment, strategic partnerships, changing security challenges, and NATO's united strength. In addition to these topics, China is also expected to be a significant part of the discussions. 

China's behaviour intersects with multiple topics outlined in the NATO summit agenda. First, China's alignment with Russia highlights the Changing Security Challenges and the impact on deterrence and defence strategies. A few weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, China declared a friendship with "no limits" with them. Since China has not publicly condemned Russia, observers have debated how far this friendship could go. Speculations about potential weapon transfers from China to Russia as a logical step in the relationship between the two countries have become a concern for regional stability and NATO security interests. Although China has not moved in that direction and strongly dismissed such claims, NATO's readiness and capability to react to any potential threat scenarios will likely be part of the discussions, as indicated by Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania's Minister of Foreign Affairs earlier this year. 

The evolving global landscape, which includes a stronger China-Russia axis, calls for discussions to examine the implications of such partnerships and their impact on regional and international security dynamics. Echoing the sentiments expressed in the G7 meeting over a month ago in Hiroshima, Japan, NATO leaders have expressed concerns that Russia's success in Ukraine could embolden China to act upon its ambitions in the South China Sea. Indo-Pacific allies – Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand - have been invited to the Summit, aiming to shed light on shared concerns regarding China's assertiveness and its impact on regional stability, human rights, and global trade. Moreover, it is expected that the Summit will serve as an opportunity to make progress on NATO's plan to expand its outreach to Asia by opening a liaison office in Toyo, Japan.

The host country's strong stance against China's coercive methods also adds an important dimension to the discussions about NATO's Unified approach. Over the last couple of years, Lithuania has emerged as one of the harshest critics of China on the world stage, which led to heavy economic retaliation from China. Beijing's attempts to punish the Baltic state for going against China's interests by opening a Taiwanese representative office have failed mainly because Lithuania had negligible economic links with China, to begin with. However, for many other NATO members, their substantial economic dependence on China hinders them from taking bold action. While there is a consensus among NATO nations about the genuine threat posed by China, the complexities of their economic entanglements make it challenging to establish a cohesive and unified approach. French President Emmanuel Macron speaking against the plans to open the Tokyo outpost is the most recent example. 

In Preparation for the NATO summit, Chinese state-led media have already published numerous articles criticising NATO and the Summit's host Lithuania for their provocation and malicious intentions toward China. In line with the typical rhetoric of China’s state-led media, the articles include mocking statements about Lithuania's size and the "lack of self-awareness" it displays. Chinese state-led media also highlighted that NATO's potential partnership with Indo-Pacific nations was received as a direct threat and an attempt to intervene in China's internal affairs. 

Overall, while NATO's primary focus would be on the situation in Europe, including China on the Summit's agenda demonstrates the alliance's recognition of the need to address China's assertiveness comprehensively. By discussing China's alignment with Russia, regional ambitions, and its interaction with other NATO partner countries, NATO seeks to formulate collective responses to safeguard global stability and address emerging security challenges.