The G7 and the Xi’an summit: A case study of comparative world visions.
As we navigate the world in flux, two parallel summits have offered a glimpse into the diverse visions shaping the current landscape of international politics. From May 19th to 21st, the Group of Seven (G7) summit brought together leaders from the world's most influential democracies in Hiroshima, Japan. Meanwhile, almost simultaneously, from May 18th to 19th, China hosted all five presidents of the Central Asian countries in its historical capital Xi'an. Both gatherings, held in historically symbolic locations, serve a striking juxtaposition, expressing diverging views on global governance, economic cooperation, and common goals.
Russia and China - the Twin Threats Dominating G7 Discussions
Given the summit's broad theme of democracies confronting autocracies, China and Russia were at the centre of discussion at the G7 meeting. Leaders of the G7 have once again condemned Russia's illegal war and expressed indefinite support for Ukraine. A notable highlight was the United States' pledge to allow access and training on American-made F-16 fighter jets for Ukrainian pilots. The position taken by the summit leaders is that the peace in Ukraine will include the unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops and military equipment from Ukraine. The joint communiqué also vowed to increase the costs to Russia and its supporters through various measures, including restrictions on critical exports, curtailment of financial activities, and limiting revenue from energy and metals. Furthermore, the leaders also called on third parties to cease providing material support to Russia's aggression.
Adding further significance to the G7 meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's in-person attendance at the G7 meeting carried significance as he aimed to advocate Ukraine's case directly to non-member states, including India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Brazil. These states, dubbed as "fence sitters" play a crucial role in providing economic support through continued trade with Russia and refusal to openly condemn its actions. This brought only partial success as President Zelensky did not meet directly with Brazilian President Lula, who had earlier proposed mediating the peace between Moscow and Kyiv. However, the interactions with Indian Prime Minister Modi brought better results via promises for more humanitarian assistance.
The joint communiqué issued by the G7 marked the group's most detailed articulation of a shared position on China to date. It called on China to press Russia, with whom it has declared a friendship with "no limits," to stop its military aggression and withdraw its troops from Ukraine. The communiqué also established the members' attitudes regarding China's own growing territorial ambitions and economic coercion – highlighting interconnections between security in Europe and the South China Sea. Japan, the host of the summit and the only Asian country in the G7, took a leading position in expressing that the events in Ukraine could have broader implications, specifically in the Indo-pacific. It emphasised the importance of the international rules-based order, and that Russia's actions in Ukraine could embolden China's actions against Taiwan. The joint communiqué went further by outlining a determination to "oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion" and stated that "there is no legal basis for China's expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea." Perhaps one of the most important topics that would lead to policy changes in the member states was the importance of curbing China's "non-market policies", "malign practices", and "economic coercion."
Even though the statements within the communiqué concerning China and its growing assertiveness on the world stage were critical, they were also pragmatically calculated. Leading up to the summit, observers debated whether a joint position towards China could be achieved due to each country's economic entanglement with the world's second-largest economy in the world. Therefore, the language in the communiqué was "made a little more balanced". It acknowledged the importance of engaging and cooperating with China and stated that candid discussions and expressing of concerns are important to ensure a level playing field in the international community. Instead of the previously used term "decoupling" from China, the leaders used words like "diversifying" and "de-risking" of economic relations.
Notably, China and Russia reacted strongly to the G7 summit. Several articles appeared in the Chinese state-led media Global Times, criticising the G7 summit, calling it an "anti-China workshop" and condemning the joint communiqué for being biassed, only reflecting a US-dominated agenda. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson encouraged the US and the G7 to stop pointing fingers at China and to focus on their issues, criticising them for being hypocritical and using acts of "decoupling" as a tool to politicise and weaponize economic and trade relations. Similarly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the US aims to suppress any other country which aspires to have its place in the world.
China's Growing Influence: Central Asia Aligns with Beijing's Vision
Xi Jinping and the five leaders of Central Asian nations.
The China-Central Asia Summit showcased China's alternative vision for a multipolar world, centred around its own economic and geopolitical interests. The summit was attended by the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. During the opening keynote speech, President Xi Jinping called for closer cooperation in areas such as industry and investment, agriculture, transportation, energy, and cultural exchanges. Contrasting with the criticisms outlined in the G7 communiqué, the Chinese president reiterated China's commitment to upholding the sovereignty, security, and independence of Central Asian countries while promoting peace, prosperity, and connectivity in both the region and the world. President Xi called this a "win-win cooperation" – a phrase China often uses to emphasise the supposed mutual benefits.
On the topic of regional and global security, Xi Jinping called the summit members to "stand firm against external attempts to interfere in the domestic affairs of regional countries or instigate colour revolutions". Although no specific countries were mentioned, this was a thinly veiled accusation towards the US and the G7. Especially if we look back at the critique China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson expressed towards the G7 meeting, coupled with arguments published in state-led media outlets such as Global Times and China Daily. Rhetoric from these publications states that Europe and the US are attempting to paint China, Russia, and Iran as the "axis of evil", while at the same time trying to "flare up riots and chaos' in the region. In the same vein, the leaders provided assurances to China that they would not interfere in its approach to Hong Kong, Taiwan, or Xinjiang. Some news reports suggest that the bilateral meetings also achieved information exchange agreements regarding people who are illegally fleeing China, particularly those of Turkic origin. Stressing the region's strategic importance as the "crossroads connecting the East and West, the South and North '', President Xi Jinping declared that no one has the right to "seek selfish political interest" in Central Asia.
That said, it is important to note that gaining influence in Central Asia is a strategic goal for China. To properly understand the Xi’an summit, it is essential to understand the strategic context in which Central Asia sits. First, China seeks to enhance its regional connectivity and trade networks through Central Asia. The region’s strategic location as a land bridge between Europe and Asia makes it an essential hub for China's Belt and Road Initiative, enabling greater connectivity and trade opportunities. Furthermore, Central Asia holds significant energy and mineral resources. Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are major players in natural gas and oil production, with Kazakhstan also being a leading uranium producer. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan have significant gold reserves, while Tajikistan's primary export is aluminium. By establishing energy cooperation projects and pipelines, such as the already existing China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline and the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline, China ensures a stable energy supply for its development. Analysts are now focused on how China is "pouncing on the opportunity to become the new hegemon" as Russia's influence in the region is dwindling. China's regional involvement has been especially prominent since 2013 when President Xi Jinping launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine opened even more possibilities for Chinese diplomatic expansion.
Looking at China's attempts to potentially challenge Russia's position in Central Asia, observers start asking questions about China’s commitment to its supposed ally’s success in Ukraine. The G7 summit established a clear position towards the war, however, the Xi'an summit only vaguely mentioned the global turmoil. Nevertheless, the keynote speech and joint declarations following the summit paint China as a "peacemaker" and proponent of "sovereignty" as well as "territorial integrity". China expressed the desire to mediate the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, however, its peace plan is ambiguous. On one hand, China expressed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity. On the other hand, it condemned Western sanctions against Russia and signed a joint declaration with Russia where the Ukraine crisis was blamed on NATO. The Xi’an summit has therefore been a highly opportunistic attempt by China to gain international notoriety and gain from Russia’s declinism.
As pointed out by Alexander Gabuev and Bonny Lin from Foreign Affairs, it seems that "China tries to have its cake and eat it too". It not only wants to maintain positive relations with Europe but also wants to take a neutral position on Ukraine. It wants to challenge US supremacy in the world and pushes for a multipolar world where it is seen as a major power with at least as much political clout as the US. To do that, it must show itself as a responsible member of the international community. At the same time, it understands that it would be exponentially more difficult to balance against the US without Russia. That is likely to be the reason why China is treading a fine line in the Ukraine conflict, seeking to set itself up for success regardless of how the conflict ends.
Looking at the joint declarations resulting from the Xi'an summit, we see that Central Asia has decided to align itself with China and Russia. After Russia invaded Ukraine, there were discussions in the region about whether Central Asia would pivot to the West. The US has been increasing interactions with Central Asian countries, with the Biden administration seeking to aid countries facing economic fallout from the Ukraine conflict, as has the EU. However, the region has become a means for Russia to circumvent sanctions, leading to a significant increase in imports of Western goods and trade with Russia. The forthcoming 11th EU package of sanctions is expected to address countries that help Russia bypass sanctions, potentially impacting companies from countries participating in the Xi'an summit. Overall, the summit signals that the Central Asian States prioritise relations with China over the West.
Comparing the split-screen dynamics
The split-screen images between the G7 and China-Central Asia summits reveal the fault lines that define the current global geopolitical landscape. Both summits were held in locations charged with historic symbolism. According to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, he deliberately chose Hiroshima for the G7 meeting as it serves as a reminder of "what can happen when peace and order break down and give way to instability and conflict". It also brings a level of optimism that everything that was destroyed can be rebuilt. Contrastingly, the China-Central Asia summit was held in Xi'an – the capital of several ruling dynasties throughout the Chinese Empire, the starting point of the ancient Silk Road or as Xi Jinping put it in his opening keynote speech, an "important cradle of the Chinese civilization, and nation". From a geopolitical standpoint, Xi'an's historical symbolism embodies China's desire for global connectivity, cultural pride, and regional dominance.
The G7 summit showcased a united front among democracies, with the participants emphasising the importance of upholding the international rules-based order and opposing unilateral attempts to change the status quo through force or coercion. The discussions centred around condemning Russia's aggression in Ukraine and outlining measures to increase the costs of war and deter further aggression. The summit host Japan invited countries that are deemed the "fence sitters" in the conflict to observe the G7 articulate their shared position on China and Russia. The agreements reached in Hiroshima demonstrate a growing consensus among major democracies regarding the urgent need to address perceived threats and signalling that the geopolitical fault lines are being drawn based on values and views on global governance, and not just geographical proximity.
In contrast, the China-Central Asia summit held almost at the same time as the G7 was likely a move aimed at countering the criticisms of China's aggressive rise by trying to show Beijing as a responsible global power. At the same time, it can be seen as the formation of the Russia-China-Central Asia bloc, where China is taking the lead and Russia is forced into a more backseat role. While China recognizes the importance of maintaining Russia's support in countering the United States, it is also capitalising on Russia's diminishing influence in Central Asia to further its ambitions in the resource-rich, strategically important region. The alignment of Central Asia with Russia and China reflects the region's increasing significance as a means for Russia to circumvent sanctions and for China to expand its economic and geopolitical influence.
As the G7 and China's Central Asia summits have concluded, it is increasingly clear that the world is witnessing a clash of ideas and approaches. The ongoing tensions between democracies and autocracies, exemplified by the G7 and China-Central Asia summit, underscore the complex dynamics that shape international relations. Given China's alignment with Russia, the "team democracy" must be wary about what China may do at the peace negotiation table. The hesitancy to recognize China's involvement further fuels a sense of hostility within the Chinese establishment, exacerbating the already complex dynamics between the United States and China. The question of China's role in global affairs, therefore, becomes intertwined with the broader tensions between the broader blocs of established and rising powers.