Water Wars: The Growing Importance of Freshwater in Current and Future Conflicts
Climate change has emerged as a ‘threat multiplier’ that adds to other risks of global security, as evidenced by the ever-increasing role water plays in conflict. Freshwater is an unevenly distributed resource, yet vital for human life. By 2030, there could be up to 700 million people at risk of displacement because of drought. Climate change exacerbates water scarcity and can fuel systemic tensions when such a vital resource is threatened.
The Pacific Institute’s open-source database on water-related violence classifies cases into three distinct categories: trigger, weapon, and casualty. This is either as a trigger, when water is a “root cause of conflict, where there is a dispute over the control of water or water systems”, a weapon when “water resources, or water systems themselves, are used as a tool or weapon in a violent conflict” or as a casualty, when “water resources, or water systems, are intentional or incidental casualties or targets of violence.” As an example, their database identifies 294 cases worldwide between 2010 and 2019 when water was a trigger and 335 when water was a casualty in conflict. These cases occur when water and its infrastructures are linked to violence, frequently when a lack of economic or physical access to water results in water scarcity. Water scarcity in particular highlights the often overlooked phenomenon that links the global climate emergency with growing localised security threats.
This is of particular concern in the Middle East, a region marked by water scarcity. The same database finds a jump in water-related violence in the region from 47 events between 2000 and 2009 to 294 separate events between 2010 and 2019. Aleppo, in Syria, is a clear illustration. During the 2016 offensive on the city, it was reported that water supply systems were deliberately targeted, causing considerable damage to the city’s water network. Since 2017, none of Aleppo’s remaining residents have had access to public water networks, relying instead on alternative water sources that expose them to waterborne diseases. Both state and non-state actors are utilising water as a weapon in this conflict, while the consequences are borne by non-combatants. Such events led the Eurasia Group to predict that in 2023, water scarcity will trigger refugee flows in the Middle East, notably in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Can water or lack thereof cause wars? Research shows that water-related violence is increasing over time. However, it is unlikely that water scarcity and access issues will cause large-scale conflicts in the near future. Water scarcity is often linked to underlying tensions, whether territorial, ideological, or economic. Therefore, water scarcity and accessibility problems are probabilistic causes in that they make war more likely, but not deterministic causes in that they are the primary reason for war. This is, however, likely to shift as climate change leads to greater water scarcity, and wars over water could break out in the next decade.
What can be done to avoid this? On the policymaking side, there is a need to move from simple crisis management to a broader risk management of water scarcity and access. This includes an awareness of the weaponisation of water, which should be emphasised in the security sector. Partnerships need to be forged between national governments, local authorities, the private sector, NGOs, and other institutions to bolster the protection of critical water systems in times of conflict and ensure the equitable distribution of water. Yet global problems also require multilateral solutions. At the international level, there is a need to strengthen international law to protect access to water in conflict zones is needed to avoid the recurrence of incidents such as in Aleppo. Existing international humanitarian law protects “objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population” such as water treatment plants, but it needs to be better enforced, and breaches in this regard need to be given greater visibility in the media.
Above all, peace and security can be promoted by strengthening climate resilience and tackling climate change. Anthropogenic climate change is a significant contributor to increasing water scarcity, and mitigating its effects will prevent water from becoming a trigger for war. To strengthen resilience, essential water systems must be protected from the risks of conflict but also from the impacts of climate change. Ensuring reliable and equitable water supply in the face of climate uncertainty will lessen the risk of water being a trigger, weapon, or casualty in war. Urgently addressing climate change will halt the progression of water scarcity and the inevitability of water-related conflicts.
As Kofi Annan, then-UN Secretary-General, said in 2001 “Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future.” Annan’s two-decade-old prediction seems especially prescient today. Since he spoke those words, the propensity for wars with and over water resources has only increased, while the need to address the underlying problem of climate change has only intensified.