What the Manifestos Say About Environmental Policy: A Look Ahead to the UK's General Election
As the UK’s General Election approaches, the environmental and energy policies of the main political parties are coming under scrutiny. Here's a brief guide to what you can expect from the debate in the next Parliament.
Conservative Party
The Conservative Party’s manifesto appears to target voters considering a switch to the Reform Party. Their approach to net zero policies is more about scaling back than advancing. Key pledges include:
No new green levies or a frequent flyer tax.
Parliamentary vote on the next stage of the net zero pathway and reform of the Climate Change Committee to consider household costs and UK energy security.
£1.1 billion investment in a Green Industries Growth Accelerator.
Trebling offshore wind capacity and ensuring democratic consent for onshore projects.
Continued investment in the oil and gas sector, with commitments to ensure annual licensing rounds for oil and gas production in the North Sea. Support for new nuclear projects.
Update to the carbon pricing mechanism so that by 2027, imports of materials such as iron from countries with lower carbon prices will face a comparable carbon price to UK-produced goods. This aims to reduce the risk of industry displacement to countries not taking action on climate change.
Conservative 2024 manifesto link here.
Labour Party
Labour’s environmental, climate, and energy policies have faced scepticism, especially after the £28 billion “green deal” U-turn earlier this year. However, some key pledges include:
A new Clean Power Alliance - a coalition of countries at the forefront of climate action aiming to lower energy bills, accelerate the energy transition, and protect clean energy supply chains.
An Energy Independence Act to form the legislative framework for climate commitments on energy
Investments in renewables including £8.3 billion capital for the creation of Great British Energy, x2 of investments in onshore wind, x3 for solar, and x4 for offshore wind by 2030.
Prohibition of fracking and no new oil, gas and coal licences.
Support and investment in new nuclear power stations.
£1 billion to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture, with additional industrial investments including for ports, hydrogen and industrial clusters through a newly created National Wealth Fund.
£1.1 billion to make homes warmer.
Restoration of the 2030 phase-out for new internal combustion engine cars.
In spite of some substantial proposals to address environmental policy and the energy transitions, questions remain over the lack of detail on how Labour plans to finance and implement these policies amidst current fiscal constraints.
Labour 2024 manifesto link here.
Liberal Democrat Party
The Liberal Democrats have focused on cross-cutting policies for instance embedding climate change in an industrial strategy. It is also heavily focused on pollution and conservation of natural resources. Key pledges include:
New mechanisms for delivering policy including through a Joint Climate Council of the Nations, a Chief Secretary for Sustainability in the Treasury, and a new Net Zero Delivery Authority.
A level of devolution in policies including empowering local authorities to develop local renewable electric generation and storage, as well as citizens assemblies.
A focus on planning including an Emergency Home Energy Upgrade programme.
A 10 year plan for rail electrification.
Introducing a duty of care for the environment and human rights in supply chains.
A Clean Air Act and plans to reduce flying including banning short domestic flights.
The protection and restoration of habitats including saltmarshes, mudflats and peatlands.
Liberal Democrat 2024 manifesto link here.
Green Party
The Green Party's manifesto unsurprisingly focuses heavily on environmental policy and climate change, addressing areas neglected by other parties, such as food sustainability. Key pledges include:
Nationalisation of railways, water companies, and the big five energy companies.
A new Rights of Nature Act giving legal rights to nature itself, and a Clean Air Act.
Frequent flyer levy, a stop to all airport expansion plans and a ban on short domestic flights.
Economy-wide carbon tax which would be applied to all activities producing carbon dioxide, including airlines.
Wind to power 70% of the UK’s electricity by 2030, including 80GW of offshore wind, 53GW of onshore wind, and 100GW of solar by 2035.
Cancel recently-granted licences, such as for the Rosebank field, and stop all new fossil fuel extraction projects.
£9 billion investment in low-carbon heating.
The Green Party manifesto contains the largest spending package compared to other other parties. This would be funded by a proposed Wealth Tax, an ambitious plan that, while innovative, remains untested in the UK.
Green Party manifesto link here.
Reform Party
This is Reform’s first manifesto, which includes pledges to roll back climate pledges:
Removing all net zero commitments and scrapping energy levies.
New oil and gas licences via ‘fast-track’ and approval of shale gas licences on test sites for 2 years. Will explore clean coal mining.
Investment in small modular reactors and supporting nuclear power more broadly.
Reform Party ‘contract’ link here.
What does this all mean?
Aside from Reform, all the major parties have attained broad consensus on the need to pursue net zero targets, as well as the need to retain energy security at a time when the reliability of global supply routes is undermined. Key areas of consensus include investing in grid infrastructure to rapidly decarbonise electric generation, reform the retail energy market and increase the energy efficiency in housing. The latter two both aim to bring down consumer costs, driven by the ongoing cost of living crisis and exacerbated by increased geopolitical volatility.
Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth published a joint analysis of the four main parties’ manifestos, with the Green and the Liberal Democrat manifestos topping their points-based ranking. The Conservative manifesto fared worse with criticism particularly aimed at their commitments to oil and gas, and despite pledging swift ratification of the Global Ocean Treaty, do not have a strategy to tackle water pollution. Furthermore, despite promises to maintain leadership on climate change achieved at COP26, there is a lack of detailed plans on achieving this in light of the weakening of domestic net zero commitments.The reaction to Labour’s plans is lukewarm, with praise for plans to invest in greener homes, no new gas and oil licences and rapid renewable energy roll-out, but there are doubts concerning a lack of ambition.
Despite this, environmental and climate policies have not dominated the national debate, overshadowed by the cost of living crisis and concerns around security. However, local issues like river pollution have gained attention, with leaders like Ed Davey using water-related stunts to highlight environmental degradation across UK waterways.
Polling indicates a likely Labour landslide, with the Conservatives facing a historic wipeout with smaller parties making some gain, especially the Liberal Democrats. The potential impact of Reform as a new party might lead MPs to tread carefully on green issues to avoid backlash from voters. Even if they do not gain many seats in parliament (YouGov’s latest poll suggests Reform will win 5 seats), coming second across many constituencies could put pressure on individual MPs. Similarly regarding the Green Party: though they are fielding a record number of candidates in this election, are likely to have low overall success, predicted to win 2 seats by YouGov. That said, the Greens made record gains in the local elections earlier this year suggesting that issues around the environment and climate change remain top of mind for voters. Moreover, the ‘squeezing’ impacts of smaller parties may mean despite a Labour landslide, each MP may enjoy a smaller majority, leaving room for pressure at a constituency level.
At the top level, it is important not to overstate these shifts. The Conservatives are likely to retain enough seats to form a substantial opposition to Labour, though with an increased need to collaborate with smaller parties, particularly the Liberal Democrats, who are likely to increase their representation in Parliament by around 50 to 60 seats. This could significantly impact the push for stronger environmental policies.