Russian Ukrainian Tensions

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have flared in recent months. In response to what it has called Ukrainian provocations, Moscow has deployed approximately 50,000 military personnel near the Ukrainian border.

Moscow claims Russian speakers face a potential Srebrenica-like massacre at the hands of Ukrainian nationals. Officials in Kyiv denied escalating tensions and have accused Russian-backed separatists of violating a comprehensive 2020 ceasefire.

This conflict began in November 2013 when then Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the European Union. Thousands of citizens engaged in the Euromaidan protests, which culminated in the ousting of Yanukovych. Russia subsequently seized and annexed Crimea.

Since 2014, Russian-backed separatists in Donbass have engaged in a military conflict with Ukrainian forces that has killed over 13,000 people. The United States and the EU condemned the annexation and imposed sanctions on Russia.  

The Biden Administration has engaged in a two-pronged response. On the one hand, Washington’s recent sanctions prevent U.S. institutions from purchasing Russian bonds. On the other hand, President Joe Biden has called for normalisation of relations and signalled his willingness to engage in an in-person meeting with his counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, to which Moscow responded positively. However, Moscow expelled 10 U.S. diplomats in response to the sanctions. 

Several political risks are present. First, increased tensions heighten the chance of inadvertent escalation that may lead to a wider conflict. Some analysts think Russia intends to test the U.S. rather than escalate the conflict. Second, continued escalation may prompt additional sanctions that could further target Russian debt and access to the SWIFT payment system.

Third, Ukraine has called for a fast-tracked NATO membership, a move that would represent a serious security concern in the Kremlin, but is highly unlikely to materialise, at least in the short-term. Lastly, upcoming parliamentary elections in Russia may incentivise Putin to maintain a hard-line approach for domestic political benefit.