Denmark invests further in its autonomous countries’ security, under the shadow of a growing Arctic security dilemma

The Danish government, with cross-party support, is to significantly expand its Arctic surveillance and security apparatus as growing strategic competition between great powers threatens to increasingly destabilize the region. To reinforce its position Denmark has committed to a $250 million defence investment to operate two long-endurance drones from Greenland and re-establish a Cold War-era radar station on the Faroe Islands. This is likely the first in several increases to Denmark’s regional projection as Trine Bramsen, Denmark’s Defense Minister, has stated a willingness to expand the Danish military presence “if the security situation continues to develop as we see it now”.

Denmark’s increased defence investment serves two purposes. Firstly, domestically it highlights Denmark’s commitment to its autonomous countries. Particularly Greenland where it faces a re-energized independence movement, whose cause is aided by foreign powers, like China, taking an interest in investing and developing the country and increasing their own political capital within it. Thus, greater investment will not only bring economic benefits, but also highlight the security benefits that being part of the Kingdom of Denmark provides.

Secondly, in foreign policy terms the investment, and any further potential increase to it are necessary as militarization without dialogue continues apace in the Arctic Circle. Directly in Denmark’s neighbourhood Russia recently reactivated its northernmost and westernmost airbase, capable of receiving large military aircraft, providing it with increased air projection capability over large swathes of the Arctic. Concurrently it’s Northern Fleet are conducting Arctic maritime security exercises. The exercises act as a political and military signal to the other Arctic powers of Russia’s ability to operate at scale in the region, while also providing practical experience to its military.   

Meanwhile Russia blames Norway, and vice versa for the increase in military activity, as Norway seeks to facilitate an increase in US military assets in the Arctic operating out of its territory. This spiralling distrust is not aided by the lack of a neutral forum for discussing Arctic security matters between powers. The Arctic Chiefs of Defense forum, of which Russia, the US and other involved powers were part of, was halted in 2014 after the Russo-Ukrainian conflict began.

The absence of such a pressure valve (given that the Arctic Council specifically excludes military matters), where states can be more transparent about their concerns, aims and deployments has meant the Arctic is suffering from a classic security dilemma, with Russia, Norway and others like the USA and Britain, increasing their military presence in response to each other’s actions. Russia has voiced support for reopening the Arctic military forum, however, the take-up will be something to keep an eye on, and in its absence the build-up of military assets and distrust will continue.