Images of migrants desperately hoping to enter the EU from the border between Belarus and Poland look similar to previous migrant waves coming from Syria and Afghanistan. However, this time, the migrant “crisis” is an orchestrated one by a political leader at the EU’s doorstep. 

A fabricated humanitarian crisis

Since August 2021, Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has been accused of using Middle Eastern migrants as political pawns in a game of blackmail with the EU. 

Lukashenko is currently facing sanctions from the EU and is arguably creating this crisis to pressure the EU into lifting sanctions and potentially into recognizing him as Belarus’s legitimate leader. Indeed, the EU has previously rejected the results of the August 2020 Belarusian elections, in which Lukashenko claimed to have won 80.08% of votes.  Protests erupted around the country after the election results, and violent repression from the government ensued. Opposition leaders claim that at least 30,000 protesters had been detained by the Belarusian police. Amnesty International reported widespread torture of peaceful protesters. As a result, the EU condemned the “fraudulent nature of the August 2020 presidential elections in Belarus, and the intimidation and violent repression of peaceful protesters, opposition members and journalists,” and subsequently imposed restrictive sanctions on Belarus.

Lukashenko has implemented an innovative plan to funnel migrants from the Middle East to EU’s doorstep: Belarusian travel agents operating in Iraq have been offering travel packages, including Belarusian visas, flights and hotels to Minsk with the promise of transport into EU countries such as Germany. Once in Minsk, Belarusian guards have been transporting migrants to the border, which Belarus shares with Poland, increasing tension with the EU. Germany’s interior minister, Horst Seehofer, has called this process a “politically organized migration.” Belarus denies any systematic involvement in the crisis, although the evidence is overwhelming.

As a response, the Polish government has created a two-mile deep militarized zone on its border with Belarus, built a barbed wire fence and intends to build a wall, essentially creating a stand-off between Polish guards and migrants. Though this crisis has been unfolding at an increasing rate since August 2021, the stand-off has escalated in recent days with Polish guards using tear gas and water cannons on the migrants on Tuesday. The United Nations has condemned both sides’ escalation of the conflict and reminded that “under international law, no one should ever be prevented from seeking asylum or other forms of international human rights protection, and individual consideration must be given to their protection needs.”

Life on the border

Until Thursday morning, migrants in the forest close to Poland  have hastily set up camps, and they report being beaten by Belarusian guards and having nothing to eat. Dr. Arsalan Azzadin, who works at a hospital in Bielsk Podlaski in eastern Poland, reported patients coming in with injuries of “beatings, kidney issues and low levels of electrolytes from dehydration and drinking dirty water, hypothermia and skin conditions from walking in wet shoes and clothes.”. Nine deaths have already been reported due to cold temperatures and the lack of humanitarian support. 

Recent developments

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has attempted to mediate the crisis. Merkel and Lukashenko have called for the second time this week on Wednesday. However, these calls have angered a few European leaders who do not recognize Lukashenko as Belarus’s legitimate leader. “I told the president of Germany that Poland would not recognise any arrangements regarding the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border that would be made over our heads,” said Polish president Andrzej Duda. 

On Thursday morning, Belarusian security forces have cleared the migrants’ camps on the border with Poland, and have taken at least 2,000 migrants to a Belarus government warehouse. This move has eased tensions between Belarus and the EU, but the future of the migrants still remains uncertain. The New York Times suggests that some migrants are considering staying in Belarus, which was probably not part of  Lukashenko’s plans. An estimated 5,000 migrants still remain in Belarus in total.

In an exclusive BBC interview with Lukashenko published on Friday, Belarus’s authoritarian leader admitted that migrants were helped to cross into Poland but denied inviting them. “Maybe someone helped them. [...] But I didn’t invite them here. And to be honest, I don’t want them to go through Belarus,” said Lukashenko. In the interview, Lukashenko stopped short of admitting to the widespread and systematic help provided to prospective migrants. 

It seems that Lukashenko may have hoped that this fabricated crisis would yield faster political results in his favour. While he may think that he has found a chink in the EU’s armor, it is very unlikely that the EU will lift sanctions. “The EU will probably not cave, because the pressure, it’s not that significant,” political scientist Artyom Shraibman said. “It’s not like the million refugees that came to the EU in 2015, it’s just thousands of people. It’s digestible for the EU; it’s not something that will make them change their position.”