On 2nd October, Bulgaria held its fourth parliamentary election in less than two years. A total of seven parties ran in the election. The conservative GERB party (in coalition with SDS), led by Boyko Borissov, won with 25% of the vote. The centrist anti-corruption party We Continue the Change (PP) came second with 20% of the vote. The other parties were the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (13%), Revival (10%), Bulgarian Socialist Party (9%), Democratic Bulgaria (7%), and Bulgarian Rise (4.6%).

These results are very unlikely to ease the country´s political turmoil. Borissov and his party are surrounded by corruption allegations and Bulgaria is still considered the most corrupt EU member according to Transparency International. After an EU probe in March, Borissov was briefly detained but promptly released. Serving as Prime Minister between 2009-2013, 2014-2017, and 2017-2021, Borissov forged a somewhat unique statesman´s image with good connections in European circles, especially among the European Popular Party (EPP). Borissov and the system that he built around him could be situated between “Berlusconism” as described by Italian analysts and the state capture situation of Serbia under Aleksandar Vučić.

The rest of the political parties know that they can suffer a setback in popular opinion if they try to reach an agreement with GERB and Borissov. The Movements for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) also has bad reputation because of their links with the sanctioned media mogul Delyan Peevski and their voter-buying schemes. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) could try to coexist with PP and form a unified government as they did at the end of 2021. However, the support of a fourth party will be needed, which is difficult given the fact that PP and DB were born out of the anti-corruption protests of 2020-2021 and the two parties try to distance themselves from the legacy of Borissov´s GERB, the controversial DPS, and even from some of the pro-Russian links that BSP still has.

Revival and Bulgarian Rise are parties representing a portion of the Russia-favorable sentiment in the country, with Revival being considered more of a far-right movement. They have a strong discourse against NATO and try to promote Bulgaria´s self-interest outside EU written rules. The other political parties will likely try to refrain from reaching agreements with them.

The last government under the leadership of Kiril Petkov, one of PP’s founding members, started with many promises related to anti-corruption measures, deeper EU integration, and the erasing of Borissov´s legacy. However, the resistance of corrupt elements, internal strife among coalition members, discussions about the blocking of North Macedonia´s EU accession, and the lack of concrete actions plagued his term. Bulgaria´s stance towards the Ukrainian conflict also dominated a big portion of the debates, as Petkov´s decisive pro-European and pro-NATO position was met with certain negativity in a country traditionally aligned between East and West and where sentiments favorable to Russia run deep, as Dimitar Bechev, author of Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe (Yale University Press, 2017) has argued. PP and BSP clashed continuously over the ability of Bulgaria´s still surviving military industry, in providing weapons, munitions, or technical reparations to Ukraine. However, even this situation didn´t stop political elites and members of the government from trying to benefit economically with corrupt schemes, as independent Bulgarian and Polish investigators have revealed.

Politicians are aware that the economic problems caused by the war in Ukraine and the frustration among voters will increase political instability. In order to avoid the seemingly never-ending spiral of elections, they can choose to shelve their differences and form a risky governing cabinet with a complicated majority. GERB´s return to power would prove the resilience of the status quo during the biggest conflict in Europe since the breakup of Yugoslavia. In these difficult times, it is quite probable to see Borissov trying to cozy up with PP and DB in order to get a majority. If not, he could at least get a shaky coalition of his own along with DPS and some other parties who can choose to be opportunistic. Either if he is planning to rule now or the ambition to do it later after a fifth election, what Borissov needs is to project an image of stability in order to draw votes from the anticorruption parties or even increase political apathy.

Bulgaria is suffering from plenty of external pressure in order to finally get out of the deadlock. The constant repetition of electoral processes, the inability to form a stable government, and systemic corruption continue to take their toll in the form of increased voter apathy and a worryingly low turnout. Even if it´s not as close to Russia as other EU members, it is necessary to keep an eye on Bulgaria as it still occupies a strategic position and plays an important role in boosting non-Russian gas flows in Southeast Europe.