Monkeypox - The next COVID or an exaggerated media scare?
The UK Health Security Agency has reported, as of May 23, 70 cases of Monkeypox since May the 7th. According to Global.health, there have been a total of 200+ cases detected across non African countries, with cases concentrating predominantly in the UK, Spain, Portugal, and others. A visualisation by Global Health can be viewed with this link, which tracks the number of confirmed and suspected cases of Monkeypox.
Post Covid, it is natural for the media, along with the epidemiological community, to be hypersensitive to unnatural movements of contagious diseases. Monkeypox is traditionally detected only in Western African nations, with rare cases outside of the region often tied to direct travel to the area and /or due to infected animals from the region. Previous outbreaks of monkeypox occurred in this manner; for example, with infected prairie dogs causing an outbreak in the US in 2003.
Monkeypox is furthermore spreading within the context of decreased immunisation. According to Dr Romulus Breban, “This outbreak was really waiting to happen”, with compulsory smallpox vaccinations ending decades ago, and the proportion of those immune steadily decreasing. Although monkeypox and smallpox are indeed different diseases, symptoms are similar, and data suggests that smallpox vaccines are 85% effective in preventing monkeypox.
But is this all a cause for concern? Granted, we are still in the early stages of the outbreak, and it is impossible to predict how far and wide Monkeypox will continue to spread. However, there are various promising signs that this disease may not be as deadly as it initially appears to be.
Firstly, studies have shown tentative signs that this current outbreak is not caused due to a mutation in transmissibility. The WHO has released a press statement, declaring that they have yet to receive any evidence that this current outbreak is caused by a mutated Monkeypox virus.
Secondly, Monkeypox, unlike COVID, is not a ‘novel’ virus. Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, there will be no need to wait for pharmaceutical companies to develop, test, and manufacture Monkeypox vaccines. We also have therapeutic treatment procedures, and understand how Monkeypox operates. In fact, the UK Health Security Agency has recently published guidelines regarding vaccination for pre and post Monkeypox exposure, with vaccines already offered for high-risk contacts.
Thirdly, experts believe Monkeypox will not spread as far, wide and quickly as coronavirus. This is due to the manner in which monkeypox spreads; Monkeypox, currently, spreads through contact with humans, animals, or materials contaminated with the virus. Unlike COVID-19, Monkeypox does not spread through aerosols, which was believed to be one of the predominant reasons for COVID-19’s meteoric spread.
However, there may be another rush for ‘vaccine diplomacy’ as we saw for COVID-19. The US has recently purchased 13 million doses of Monkeypox vaccines, worth $119 million, along with an option to purchase $180million more. There may also be another new wave of travel bans depending on how rapidly and quickly the Monkeypox outbreak continues. Certain countries have already begun imposing self-isolation advisory measures in the case of exposure, such as the UK. Furthemore, although Belgium has been the first country to impose a legal requirement for quarantine, we can expect several other countries to eventually follow suit, depending on the course and spread of the outbreak.