Article thumbnail of Ryanair flight 4978, 05/01/2021, courtesy of Wikipedia Commons

The episode started with the Ryanair flight FR4978 from Athens to Vilnius being forced to land in Minsk on 23 May. The flight was carrying Belarusian political dissident Roman Protasevich, who was later arrested by the Belarusian authorities on charges of organising mass unrest.

The incident attracted widespread criticism, especially from Minsk’s European neighbours. Following the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s vow to close the bloc’s airspace to planes from Belarus, on 26 May a directive was issued by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). The directive called on all airlines based in the EU to avoid Belarusian airspace and denied Belavia, the Belarusian state carrier, entry to at least 16 European countries.

Russia, who demonstrated unwavering support to Minsk during previous political turmoil, has backed its traditional ally by banning EU flights. Moscow delayed the process of issuing flying clearances to Austrian Airlines and Air France which planned to divert around Belarus’ airspace in line with the new EU policies. As a result, flights to Moscow by these airline companies were cancelled. As Russia is an important flyover spot for many Asia-route flights operated by European air companies, Moscow’s attempt would likely exert considerable pressure on these European countries. The fact that Russia’s Belarus-diversion ban was selective - proven by the fact that British Airway and Dutch KLM faced no restrictions - may also split European unity on the issue of Belarus. On 2 June, flights between Germany and Russia were interrupted for several hours due to reciprocal flight bans.

Economically, the politicisation of European aviation is likely to further damage the fragile industry already negatively impacted by the pandemic. Not flying over Belarus will likely mean longer flying hours, more cabin crew members, and a rise in operating costs and ticket fares. More importantly, the possibility of sudden flight cancellations would add another layer of uncertainty to the recovery of the aviation industry.

Geopolitically, the Western aviation ban on Belarus has also pushed the latter closer to Russia. On 28 May, during talks between President Alexander Lukashenko and President Vladimir Putin, the latter promised to provide a US$500m loan. On 31 May, Lukashenko revealed that he had discussed the creation of flights between Belarus and Crimea at the meeting with Putin. As Belarus previously refused to recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea, this act signals Belarus’ reconsideration of its stance on the Crimea issue. Already in early April this year, Ukraine announced that it would not participate in further peace talks in Minsk, given that Belarus has been overtly under Russia’s influence. Therefore, the incident of Minsk’s forceful diversion of the flight has not only redrawn the aviation map of Europe but also changed the geopolitical dynamic in the region.