Forecast: Putin's 9th General Killed as May 9th's Victory Day Approaches
A Possible Victory Day Scenario
All photos were taken and are owned by Aidan Gorman, Victory Day Parade, Moscow, 9 May 2021
President Vladamir Putin has lost his ninth General since the start of his invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces claim to have killed Major General Andrei Simonov in Kharkov. Along with the nine Generals Putin has lost, 36 Colonels have also been killed throughout the invasion with Putin almost losing his Chief of General Staff of the Russian military, Valery Gerasimov last week too. All of this is important as it will be juxtaposed against the presentation of military success at Russia’s biggest holiday, Victory Day on May 9th.
This holiday is when Russia celebrates the ending of the Second World War. There is a military parade through Moscow, with thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles, ranging from trucks to tanks. Putin will, as he has in the past, use this platform to make a speech to the Russian people about the sacrifice of those during World War II and about the strength of the current Russian armed forces.
As seen in the photos throughout this spotlight taken by me in 2021, large vehicles drive through the streets of Moscow, with almost all citizens watching from the streets or their homes. The issue facing this coming Victory Day is that Putin is losing the war in Ukraine, with the Russian military performing far below the expectations of military analysts. So how will he push forward the idea that the campaign is successful and a credit to the narrative Victory Day presents- of a victorious and formidable Russian military?
Putin will likely end up making an even bigger display than seen before, just to attempt to prove his narrative that the Russian military is winning the warm handily. Whether he will do this through putting more troops in the parade, bigger military vehicles, or the deployment of false claims and narratives in his speech, will only be seen on the day itself. Though something he will certainly be missing will be the top military officers killed in action.
The symbolic day will force Putin to put even more pressures on the failing Russian Army, which will cause further militaristic failure and loss of morale. It is likely that he will “draw parallels” between the defeat of the Nazis in the Second World War and his want to rid the supposed Nazis in Ukraine. The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said they will celebrate the holiday as usual, with a similar amount of military troops and vehicles. If this stays true, the main focus will be on Putin’s speech, and what he will claim.
Along with this, if Putin does put further pressure on his military, major operations could be started over the next few days, in an attempt to display Russia’s military prowess and gain the perception of, if not actual, strategic advantage. This would allow Putin to show evidence of his success to the Russian people as a means to counterbalance his shutting down of any news outlets displaying Russian losses.
How successful will this projection of a strong military be, if the military is failing an invasion? - This is a question that we will have to be answered on the day.
