The Future of France: An Election Rundown
The first round of the French Presidential election was on April 10th, and the two finalists were sitting President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The two were incredibly close, with Macron having 28% of the vote and Le Pen having 23%. As the two finalists, they are pushed to the second round of voting, which will take place on the 24th of April, and they will be the only choices available. This election will not only determine France’s future, but the future of the European Union, NATO, and Europe as a whole. As France’s President holds more powers when compared to many other Western leaders, the position should be filled with a competent leader. Along with executive powers, the President often creates national policy with minimal say from Parliament. Not only this, but as a key member within the European Union and NATO, the President will have major say in whether they remain or not.
Le Pen is the leader of the Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, which is considered a far-right party with extremist beliefs. In 2017, after Russia’s invasion and takeover of the Crimea, she met with Putin and said the sanctions placed against Russia by the EU were “unfair and silly”. Along with this, she also stated that the annexation of Crimea was in fact, not an annexation and that residents chose to join Russia. She also wanted to call a referendum on leaving the European Union and questioned the need for NATO.
However for 2022, she has changed tactics, toning down her far right beliefs to get more support from the French people. Especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, her change in beliefs has led to even more support. Head of a European Security and foreign policy Think Tank, Tara Varma, believes that this change is calculated in order for her to seem less extreme, but if she is elected, her beliefs will show in the policy she creates. Le Pen appears to be a Eurosceptic, saying in the previous Presidential election that she wishes to leave NATO, and has said again that she will leave NATO after the war in Ukraine is over. While she says she has no desire to leave the EU anymore, her platform pushes for ideals that would say otherwise, such as contradicting the EU’s free movement policies and wanting to reinstate the death penalty. Both of these policies will affect their relationship with the EU, and can be considered preludes to a French exit from the European Union.
Some polls suggest she may win, others predict she will get anywhere from 40-50% of the vote. It is not easy to effectively predict who will win an election, but with most sources agreeing it will be close, the future of France and European Security relies on the outcome of this election.