UK-Russia relations sour in the Black Sea

Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula was unexpectedly annexed by Russia in early 2014 as Moscow capitalised on the revolutionary disarray occurring in Kyiv. The international community contests Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, continuing to recognise the peninsula as a part of Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea has substantially expanded Moscow’s maritime standing, allowing it to restrict Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea whilst making the nearby Azov Sea a de-facto Russian lake. 

On the 23rd of June, the British Type 45 destroyer, HMS Defender intentionally sabre rattled with the Kremlin by conducting a freedom of navigation exercise close to the coast of Crimea when transiting between the Ukrainian port of Odessa to Batumi in Georgia. This provoked a volatile response by the Russian armed forces to try to force HMS Defender to change course with ‘radio warnings, coastguard vessels closing to within 100 metres and repeated buzzing by warplanes’. HMS Defender’s route had been carefully planned in advance of its deployment to the Black Sea and Russia’s response was expected.

A leaked document found at a bus stop in Kent shows that an alternative route, away from contested waters, was considered. The document outlines this route was not taken as Russian media would have the opportunity to portray “the UK being scared/running away” and to claim the UK had belatedly accepted Moscow’s claim to Crimean territorial waters. During this flashpoint the Russian defence ministry claimed one of its patrol ships fired warning shots and a military jet dropped bombs in its path of HMS Defender. However, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has called Russia’s explanation of the incident ‘predictably inaccurate’, claiming the cannon fire heard in videos of the incident was a gunnery exercise far out of range of the warship, making the claim of “warning shots” incorrect.

This is a classic example of mis/disinformation employed to deceive its audiences. In Russia, the media has exclaimed in jubilation the defence of Russian sovereignty against foreign aggressors, bolstering nationalist sentiment in the country. Russia’s defence ministry told the Interfax news agency of the “warning shots” a few minutes after the incident, allowing it to break the story first and quickly set the narrative. The UK’s denial of events emerged an hour later as the escapade had already become a global story. A defence source has said, “we knew that something might happen, but we didn’t quite expect the Russians to say that”. Russia’s defence ministry has released videos of the incident, however none of them show warning shots being fired. A similar incident occurred a day later involving a Dutch frigate, HNMLS Evertsen as it conducted a comparable journey through the Black Sea.

These two ships peeled away from the UK Carrier Strike Group (UKCSG) for separate missions whilst the UKCSG took part in combat missions for the first time against ISIS in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Russia has deployed jets carrying hypersonic missiles for the first time to Khmeimim air base, situated on Syria’s Mediterranean coastline whilst

HMS Queen Elizabeth, the UKCSG’s flagship is docked in Cyprus a few hundred miles away. A delicate dance between the two nuclear powers will play out in the coming days as Russia conducts its own military exercises in the Mediterranean from its base Syria. The Commodore of the UKCSG, Steve Moorhouse, stated a Russian warship has already come within 10 miles (16km) of the UKCSG.

This will not be the last time something like this occurs during the UKCSG’s maiden deployment. When the UKCSG transits the South China Sea, similar “grey-zone” tactics will likely be employed by the People’s Republic of China, potentially creating diplomatic sparks. This will certainly be the case if a mission through the Taiwan Strait takes place. Strained international relations is not good for business as non-tariff barriers can quickly become entrenched through political will in authoritarian countries. Nike and H&M swiftly learnt this lesson after expressing concern about forced labour in their cotton supply chains in Xinjiang. British brands should be prepared for rough seas in the coming months and plan accordingly.