Worst in their history? The effect of Russia’s invasion on the Hungary-Poland relations
Amongst the less discussed aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war is its impact on the traditionally high-quality but recently somewhat more strained relations between Hungary and Poland. The “two good friends” who joined forces countless times have always held dissimilar views on Russia. Still, according to reports, whilst before February 2022, Poland did not understand but tolerated Hungary’s close ties to the Kremlin, after the outbreak of the war, it neither tolerates nor understands Viktor Orban still seeking partnerships with Moscow. Warsaw and Budapest are now completely divided on how to react to Putin’s delaying invasion which has the potential to weaken their bilateral relations.
Since the outbreak of the war, Warsaw has not only been an avid condemner of Moscow’s actions but also a keen financial supporter of Ukraine. Earlier into the war, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki for instance has openly called for the exclusion of Russia from financial markets as well as the confiscation of assets of Russian oligarchs. On top of that, Poland has also supplied Ukraine with weapons and unlike Hungary, refused to pay for Russian energy exports in rubles.
Budapest, however, has been actively trying to avoid measures that could undermine its strategic relations with Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has hardly blamed Vladimir Putin for the invasion and repeatedly expressed that “this is not our war” and that therefore Hungary has to remain excluded. Hungary has also refused arms to be sent to Ukraine through its territory.
These differing reactions, however, are not surprising given the two countries’ geopolitical circumstances. Poland is bordering Kaliningrad and Belarus and therefore feels itself more threatened. Poland is also in possession of a much greater leeway in its relations with Russia. Due to its heavy coal industry and lengthy seashore, it is less reliant on Russian energy exports, inasmuch as according to Eurostat, in 2020 around 55% of the country’s natural gas imports were brought in from Russia as opposed to the landlocked Hungary’s 95%. Hungary’s more significant reliance on Russian fossil fuels also resulted in the most recent, sixth sanction package of the European Union prohibiting the purchase of oil tanker-carried Russian oil but not that of pipeline-carried Russian oil.
Even though Hungary eventually agreed to most of the EU’s sanctions, Poland still expects changes in the Orban government’s communication about the Russia-Ukraine war. Until that happens, Warsaw is likely to distance itself from Budapest. Accordingly, the scheduled meeting of President of Hungary Janos Ader and President of Poland Andrzej Duda on the Hungarian-Polish Friendship Day on the 23rd of March ended up being canceled. For the first time since 2010, after his successful re-election in April, Viktor Orban’s first foreign visit was not to Warsaw either.
Poland even started to express its unwillingness to continue cooperating with Hungary if the latter does not change its rhetoric around the war. The countries that were once strongly allied in pursuing anti-LGBTQ agendas and presenting a united front when vetoing the EU’s 2021-2027 budget linked to democratic standards are now sharply divided in responding to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and thus arrived at a turning point in their relations.
According to the former honorary consul of Hungary in Szczecin, Poland, Orban maintaining his relationship with Putin could even lead to the worst Hungary-Poland relations in history. As a result, Hungary could be further isolated within both the European Union and the Visegrad 4 (V4) group, especially if the war is prolonged. In that case, the only benefactor of the worsening Hungary-Poland relations would be Moscow, who is likely to take advantage of every internal conflict amongst its former satellite states.