Analysing Macron's recent statements on Ukraine

In the past few weeks, French President Emmanuel Macron has gained media attention by suggesting that NATO countries sending troops to Ukraine is “not off the table”, as NATO and Europe’s assistance continues to be criticised amongst significant ammunition shortages hampering the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Macron continued a few days later urging European nations not to be “cowards’’ when it comes to Ukraine and its confrontation with Vladimir Putin. Macron’s statements were strongly criticised by the Kremlin as a provocation and proof of NATO's ambitions towards containing or destroying Russia as geopolitical power, while many NATO allies in Europe and beyond felt compelled to put out their own statements assuring that there was no consideration in putting troops on the ground in Ukraine. But what is Macron trying to achieve with his statements?

Domestic Audience:

The first thing we can look at is Macron’s rhetoric as an attempt to rally his domestic audience on the issue of Ukraine. Macron’s presidency has been characterized by various forms of discontent domestically; one can cite the “gilet jaune’’ protests, protests over retirement age reform and current farmers protests as some of the major difficulties encountered by the President in his domestic policies. Taking a leading role in Ukraine can, therefore, be interpreted as a politically strategic move to shift attention away from domestic challenges and emphasize the external challenges to French society, namely that of Russia and Vladimir Putin, whose war in Ukraine is seen by many analysts as a leading cause for major domestic issues throughout Europe, such as agricultural prices and inflation. Furthermore, Macron’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric on Ukraine is also seen as an attempt to forge a more robust image in France for a leader who was largely seen as being humiliated in his naivety towards Vladimir Putin and his mediation attempts before the February 22nd invasion. 

Diplomatic strategy:

As a negotiation strategy, Macron’s statements make strategic sense. As various European and NATO partner countries are wondering how to confront Russia without starting a major conflict, a major component of strategic deterrence is the need to keep all options on the table in order to keep your adversary guessing your next move or the potential consequences of their actions. Macron’s rhetoric can, therefore, be seen as an attempt to keep the Kremlin on guard regarding its actions in Ukraine, making sure Russia understands that any major escalation, such as the use of nuclear weapons or the spreading of the conflict, could lead NATO countries to send their militaries into Ukraine. The rhetoric is therefore less a factual statement of European or NATO plans towards Ukraine, and instead acting as former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev does for Russia (albeit much more reserved), as a bellicose voice to keep the other side in check on their actions. With European Parliamentary elections on the horizon, Macron’s new bellicose rhetoric places France in a leadership role in European security and foreign policy, dragging other political elements in France to follow suit, such as Marine LePen, who has also had to move towards a more confrontational stance vis a vis her position to Russia and Ukraine.

Pivot to Europe:

Macron and French foreign policy has also been following a strong pivot to Europe over the last several years, as it seeks to focus on becoming a prominent influential voice in European policy and strategy for decades to come. Part of this strategy has been  courting central and eastern european countries, voices that had been largely minimized or dismissed by previous French and German administrations. Macron even admitted his faults in not listening to countries such as Poland, Czechia or the Baltic states and has since emphasized synchronizing with such countries over their shared concerns about Russian expansionism, with which France has faced its direct security concerns, such as the expansion of Russian involvement in the Sahel at the expense of French interests. While France remains a smaller contributor to Ukrainian defense equipment, it has also been making efforts in that department, such as the joint procurement of artillery munitions. France is attempting to take on a role as the main defense component for Europe, moving away from its traditional focus on Africa and onto direct confrontation of the threat Russia poses to European security. 

Allied Reaction:

Considering these reasons,some analysts have deemed both the comments and the reaction of France’s allies to Macron’s statements unhelpful. Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Sholtz, was quick to dismiss the deployment of any troops to Ukraine now or at any time in the future, putting into question the strategic deterrence that such a suggestion may provide to Russia. At a time when European cohesion and synchronization on this topic has been put in doubt, statements such as Macron’s highlight the need for European countries and NATO to find joint and consistent ways to assist Ukraine anddeter Russia from either escalation or further aggressive actions.