Executive Summary

• The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) achieved a historic win with 28.8% of the votes, marking Austria's first far-right party victory since World War II.

• No party has a clear majority, with the ÖVP and SPÖ exploring coalition talks. This would likely require a third party to form a stable government.

• Although unlikely to form a government, the FPÖ’s 57 National Council seats will significantly influence legislative processes.

• Voter priorities reflected discontent over migration policies, inflation, and unemployment, which the FPÖ capitalised on.

• While the FPÖ's policies challenge EU priorities, their increased representation in the European Parliament reflects a broader European trend towards right-wing politics.

• A three-party coalition (ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS) is the most likely outcome, signalling a shift in Austria's political landscape from a two-party to a multi-party system.

Austria’s legislative elections for the National Council, the lower house of Austria’s bicameral parliament, were held on the 29th of September, 2024. The far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), led by Herbert Kickl, won with 28.8% of the votes, gaining 57 seats, the best result in the history of the FPÖ. This marked the first time a far-right party won the elections since World War II.

The second most-voted party was the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), led by Karl Nehammer, winning 26.3% of the votes and 51 seats while losing 20 seats in the National Council since the last election. The Austria Socialist Party (SPÖ) won one more seat compared to the last election, with 21.1% of the votes accounting for 41 seats total. The New Austrian and Liberal Forum (NEOS), with 9.1% of the votes and 18 seats, and the Greens, with 13.9% and 16 seats, rounded out the National Council.

This election has signalled a significant shift in the Austrian population’s priorities. This shift can be explained by the high levels of migration, especially during the 1990s, which have created discontent in the Austrian population, inflation, and the slow but increasing growth in unemployment. 

The next step is forming a government by building a coalition between parties. There have already been talks of a coalition between ÖVP and SPÖ, although a third party might be needed to form a government. Since the People’s Party and the Socialist Party have been the most prominent parties in Austria for decades, negotiations are more complex. In addition, to have a stronger coalition, a third party willing to form a government with ÖVP and SPÖ would allow for a solid majority to deliberate on bills and scrutinise the work of the Government.

Change in results from the last elections

The biggest changes brought by these elections stem from 2019’s election and shifts in the population's concerns toward key issues.

The Ibiza Affaire, or Ibiza Gate, upstaged the last legislative election in 2019. In 2017, vice-chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed in Ibiza talking about ways to win the election with the help of Russian mediators' money. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz distanced himself from Strache. This damaged the coalition between the ÖVP and FPÖ, leading to its eventual replacement by a non-partisan interim government due to a motion from the SPÖ of no confidence, with the support of the Freedom Party. 

Moreover, migration, inflation, and geopolitics, such as the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, have been deciding factors of concern for the Austrian people and strongly influenced their vote in this election. All three of these factors have been tackled by the FPÖ in their program and speeches, and their strong rhetoric has reached voters looking for big changes. 

Migration is a contentious topic in almost all EU Member States, including in Austria. The debate in Austria regarding increased migration and integration into society explains the Freedom Party's support for stricter migration policies, temporary stays for asylum seekers and criminal deportation. The ÖVP also mentions that Austria should be secured against illegal migration and calls to condition the entitlement of migrants to social benefits. The SPÖ takes a different position by calling for a fair distribution of asylum seekers and more measures to help with their integration. Although migration has declined from 2022 to 2023 by 25.6%, Austria is still one of the countries in the EU that receives the most refugees per capita. Many far-right voters have been protesting against migration in Austria for some time now. 

Inflation is also a hot topic, especially regarding rent. The Freedom Party wants to push for subsidised housing for Austrians, solidarity for Austrians in need, and fair pay. The inflation rate in Austria rapidly increased by 5.36% from 2021 to 2022, making the inflation rate 2022 8.55% compared to 2021, which was 2.77%. In 2023, the inflation rate decreased by only 0.73%, making the inflation rate in 2023 7.81%. The inflation rate in 2022 and 2023 has been the highest in Austria since 1974-1975. Since 2022, many protests have taken place in Austria, demanding solutions to high prices, especially the high cost of living. The three main parties in Austria agree that the cost of living and high prices are issues. While the Freedom and People's Party calls for lower taxes, the Socialist Party opts for a shift in the tax burden.

The principle of neutrality is often discussed in international geopolitics. The Freedom Party defends this position and wants agreements that directly benefit Austria, giving voters confidence that they would be a priority in Austria’s geopolitics. Since the Declaration of Neutrality of Austria in 1955, Austria has remained a neutral country. In 1995, when Austria joined the EU, it complied with the EU's requirements to become a member, except for the possibility of extending military function at that moment. In that year, Austria also joined NATO's Partnership for Peace. Since then, Austria’s perpetual neutrality has become less clear with time. The FPÖ and ÖVP have maintained the position of keeping Austria’s neutrality. In addition, the Socialist Party also defends the country's neutrality, although it has been open about supporting Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. On this issue, the FPÖ discreetly supported the Kremlin’s policies. 

Priorities of the Freedom Party

Herbert Kickl has been a prominent figure in the FPÖ for years now. The Freedom Party brought him back after the Ibiza gate to bring stability and political strength to the party. Due to his migration rhetoric, his speeches have been quite provocative.

The Freedom Party has clear priorities: individual freedom for Austrians, security, and peace while supporting Austria’s right to self-determination and preserving and defending its traditions and history. Some of the main policy priorities are protecting national identity and sovereignty by standing against the “excessive integration” from the EU and the EU’s influence in regulating Austrian affairs. This means returning competencies from the EU to Austria, rejecting international health organisations, limiting supranational courts and stopping the debt union. 

Proposals have also been made to participate in future international agreements that would only benefit Austria and to remain neutral regarding NATO, in addition to no contribution to arms deliveries, which means no support for the European Peace Facility, which is the EU fund to support military defence actions and military assistance in partner countries. Another priority point has been the maintenance of a secure border and suspending the right of asylum by emergency law, which entails having asylum applications with an expiration date. In addition, the Freedom Party supports the promotion of homogeneity, such as defending Western values against political Islam. They also promote solidarity for the Austrian nation by prioritising Austrians in healthcare and improving working conditions in the healthcare sector.

Consequences for the EU

There is a sense in the EU that Austrian policies will stay the same after the election since they will only directly impact the EU later. The FPÖ is part of the Patriots for Europe Group in the European Parliament, which currently has 84 seats in the Parliament. This makes up 11.67% of the European Parliament. In addition, the Patriots for Europe is the third-strongest European Parliamentary group after the European People’s Party (EPP) with 138 and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 136 seats. However, due to the difference of seats and the position of the EPP and S&D in continuing with the already set EU priorities, their parliamentary group is unlikely to change the course of the policies in the EU. Nevertheless, a change towards right-wing parties is steadily increasing across Europe, especially due to the politicisation of migration policies.

Despite the Freedom Party's win in Austria, they are unlikely to form a government independently since they do not reach the minimum threshold, and the ÖVP will likely not form a coalition with the FPÖ. Though the FPÖ might not form a government, the 57 seats it has gained in the National Council will grant it considerable influence over passing bills and voting procedures. 

Other far-right parties in the EU bubble will likely approach the FPÖ at the EU level. After the European Elections in June 2024, Austria has 6 Members of Parliament (MEPs) from the FPÖ in the Patriots of Europe Group. In the previous elections of 2019, only 3 Austrian MEPs were from the FPÖ, as part of the former Identity and Democracy Group (I&D) that comprised 6.95% of the European Parliament in 2019. This means they will have more influence regarding migration and environmental policies at the European level. However, they are unlikely to change the course of the EU’s implementation of the Green Deal or the migration policies regarding asylum seekers and migrants in the EU. 

What happens now

Parties with seats in the National Council will now seek to form a coalition; at least 92 seats are needed to gain a majority. The current coalition of ÖVP and the Greens has only 77 seats combined, so it needs a third party to form a government.

Karl Nehammer from ÖVP is willing to negotiate with the Freedom Party if Herbert Kickl steps down as party leader since he is a strong candidate and a significant factor in why the FPÖ has received so many votes. This would allow enough seats between the far-right and conservative parties to make a majority. A government between the Freedom Party and the People’s Party would be Austria's first far-right/conservative government since World War II. Austria would be among the few European countries with a far-right/conservative leader. This potential far-right/conservative coalition would have many differences of opinion with the EU, mainly on migration and environmental policies. However, there is currently no visible path for negotiation between either party, as the ÖVP has explained it. Nevertheless, if the FPÖ keeps increasing in future elections, a coalition with the  ÖVP could occur since they had already formed a coalition in 2019.

A more likely possibility is the coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ. However, it might be unstable since they have historically been the primary parties in a two-party system, which now has faded into a multi-party system. Negotiations between both parties have started, but a third party would be needed, as these two parties only account for 92 seats, which will make a fragile coalition. These 92 seats will only make a simple majority in the National Council. Still, a coalition usually requires a stronger majority to avoid losing the majority of votes in case of absences, abstentions, or ties. In addition, it overall reassures minority parties when passing legislation. Both parties have already begun talking to NEOS and the Greens to find a common ground, which will inevitably take time.

Nevertheless, the first round of negotiations between the ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS has succeeded in the last few days. More rounds of negotiations still need to take place. However, the first three-party coalition in Austria will likely consist of the ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS. 

About the Author

Alma Puente Moreno, Programme Analyst - Europe

Alma has joined London Politica as a Programme Analyst for the Europe Desk. Currently working as the Coordination and EU Affairs Officer at Marcogaz, a technical association of the European gas industry. Alma monitors developments in EU gas and energy policies while providing reports of meetings related to the EU energy strategy. Through this role, she has gained experience and knowledge in policy analysis, the legislative process of the EU, and the different priorities on gas and energy for the EU and other stakeholders. Alma completed her bachelor’s degree in international relations and modern languages at the University of Essex and graduated with her master’s in international political economy at King’s College London.