China’s ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ in the Russia-Ukraine War
It has been two months since Russia launched its ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine and most countries have already expressed their support of either Ukraine or Russia. China, on the other hand, has remained relatively vague in terms of its position on the war. China condemned the international sanctions, claiming that such sanctions would have negative impacts on the global economy and supply of commodities. Two days after the outbreak of the conflict, China abstained in one of the UN Security Council votes which condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It also abstained in another UN General Assembly vote blaming Russia for the alleged violation of human rights in March 2022.
There are several reasons behind China’ s attempt at a neutral position on the war. Firstly, Russia has been one of the China’s closest partners in terms of strategic goals and ideologies. Xi Jinping and Putin released a joint statement on February 4, 2022 before the start of the Winter Olympics. In the statement, China claimed that its friendship with Russia has ‘no limits’ and both countries opposed the intensifying geopolitical rivalry, the enlargement of NATO and its cold war ideology. In addition, Moscow and Beijing urged NATO to respect the sovereignty and security interests of other countries.
Secondly, Russia is one of the biggest trading partners of China. China has become Russia’s biggest export destination in 2021 and its bilateral trade with Russia grew by 28% from the same year. China also bought $773 million worth of military equipment from Russia between 2020 and 2021 while it didn’t sell any equipment to Moscow. The close relationship also reflected in the energy supplies. Russia is one of the largest coal and oil suppliers of China and Putin recently signed a 30-year gas deal with China in February 2022, less than a month before the outbreak of the conflict. The gas deal will provide China with an additional 10 billion cubic metres of natural gas each year via a new pipeline.
As Russia plays a critical role in China’s energy security and military strength, it would be a risky move to openly stand against Putin and his war on Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine also played an important role in China’s long-term strategic goals before the outbreak of the invasion. A majority of China’s military equipment including fighter jets and aircraft carriers were based on Ukrainian, ex-Soviet military technologies. Ukraine sold an Soviet-built aircraft carrier to China, which was developed into Liaoning, the first aircraft carrier of the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
Ukraine also remains one of the most important connection points of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is going to rekindle the historic trade route between China and Europe via Chinese-built and financed infrastructure. The war has already done significant damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and the Zelensky administration is unlikely to endorse the BRI if Xi Jinping chooses to stand by Putin during the war, which may pose more challenges to China’s most ambitious geopolitical blueprint of the century.
External Pressure from the United States and the EU
Although China has held an ambiguous position on the war, other ‘big players’ in the West are pressuring China to The United States is growing impatient of China’s vague position in the war and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told China to ‘help end Russia’s “heinous war” in Ukraine or face a loss of its standing in the world. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman also warned that China would face dire consequences if it decided to assist Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
The Assessing Xi’s Interference and Subversion (AXIS) Act, which was proposed by the Republican Congressman Andy Barr, passed the House of Representatives on Wednesday, April 27th. The act requested the State of Department to put forward a report on China’s cooperation with Russia every 90 days after the first month of the law’s enactment. Given its vast population and its role in the global supply chains, it would not be a feasible option to impose a full-scale sanction on China. However, smaller scale sanctions on individuals and Chinese companies still remain a possibility.
Internal Pressure from China
The domestic politics of China may not give Chinese leadership much space for ambiguity, either. In this crucial year of Xi Jinping’s political career, external and internal pressures pose a significant threat to his leadership. China’s zero-COVID policy continues to have hugely negative social and economic impacts on the residents of big cities such as Shanghai and Zhengzhou. In addition to social unrest and economic slowdown, the 20th Party Congress, which is going to discuss Xi Jinping’s eligibility for re-election, will take place in late 2022. While Xi Jinping’s power within the Communist Party seems limitless, many factors might affect the outcome of the Congress this year. Chinese Communist Party is divided by different factions and Xi Jinping will need the consent of the founding members of CCP if he wants to remain in power.
Unfortunately, Xi’s second term witnessed a series of events including the deteriorating relationship between China and the west, the outbreak of the coronavirus, and the strict zero-COVID policy. In 2019, Trump administration sanctioned Huawei, China’s largest telecommunication company, over its threat to the United States’ national security. The European Union also suspended the ratification of its investment agreement with China in 2021, due to the violation of human rights in Xinjiang.
When the Coronavirus was discovered in Wuhan in early 2020, Chinese officials not only covered up the outbreak but also denied the possibility of human-to-human transmission. Two years after the outbreak of the global pandemic, China’s economy is still dealing with the consequences of zero-covid policies in major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing when other parts of the world are opening their borders. The strict measures against the Omicron variant have negative impacts on the foreign businesses’ outlook of China: nearly a quarter of the members of the European Chamber of Commerce in China are considering to transfer their investments to different countries.
As a lot of impactful events occurred during Xi Jinping’s second term, the Russia-Ukraine war will be Xi Jinping’s last opportunity to prove his leadership to the founding members of the party. Therefore, it seems reasonable that Xi Jinping, who is going to face one of the most crucial turning points in his political career this year, will need to distance himself from Putin and cooperate with the European Union and the United States, two of China’s largest trading partners.