Eastern Ukraine: Status on Severodonetsk
Advances for both sides in the past month have been slow, sometimes losing gains almost immediately after gaining it. In the past 24 hours, most of the fighting has occurred in a select few areas, with Severodonetsk being one of the key areas.
Russian troops have entered the outskirts of Severodonetsk, coming in from the southeastern and northeastern city sectors. While the neighboring city of Lysychansk remains under complete Ukrainian control, Russian forces have begun shelling major roads connecting the two. This, along with the statement from the Ukrainian General staff that Russia intends to encircle both cities. Russia’s main goal of control over Ukraine is nowhere near being complete, so the Kremlin intends to focus on the minor goals of controlling the Luhansk Oblast and the Donetsk Oblast, in support of the two breakaway states. As Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, capturing these regions is “unconditional”. If successful, this encirclement will cut Ukrainian military personnel and citizens off, it is unclear where this will take place, but Russian forces have been advancing northwest from Popasna.
If forces continue northwest and meet with other Russian forces in Yampil, the Luhansk Oblast will be cut off, and much of the Donetsk Oblast will be under Russian control. However, if forces shift and go directly north towards Pryvillia, all of Luhansk will be cut off and surrounded. It is unclear what Russian forces plan to do from here, it is likely their plan will become visible over the next few days. According to President Zelensky, all of Severodonetsk’s crucial infrastructure has been destroyed by incoming Russian forces and their shelling and air attacks. As one of the last cities in the Luhansk region, Russia’s focus will be on this area, no matter the cost – so far, over ⅔ of housing has been destroyed in the city.