Elvira Nabiullina: Putin's Chosen
Born in Ufa from an ethnic Tatar family, Elvira Nabiullina is the head of the Central Bank of Russia since 2013. Often overlooked, she is one of the few female senior officials in the country. Nabiullina has strongly cultivated the image of a post-soviet Russian technocrat: efficient, versed in several languages, art, and with a liking for western culture. The type of person that, in theory, should replace the soviet-era siloviki that continue to plague Russia's power structures in great numbers. Her image has been often praised in Western circles. Nonetheless, since the invasion of Ukraine, she has been portrayed either as a hopeless economist trying to save her legacy from the harsh consequences of war or as another enabler who chose to remain loyal. Last September, the US imposed sanctions on her as well as on many other prominent Russian officials who are engaged in sustaining the Russian economy during wartime.
A graduate of Moscow State University, between the late 80s and early 90s, Nabiullina managed to work her way up through the USSR Science and Industry Union, its Russian successor, and then joined the Reform Department of the Ministry of Economy. Nabiullina left the ministry to gain experience in the banking sector and returned to politics in 2000, joining the Ministry of Economic Development as the first deputy. She was put under the supervision of Herman Gref (current chairman and CEO of Sberbank), a close friend of the likes of Vladimir Putin, Alexei Kudrin, and many others protégés of Saint Petersburg's first democratically elected mayor, Anatoly Sobchak. As German journalist Hubert Seipel notes in his book Putin: The Power from within (2017), Elvira Nabiullina stood out as an unusual pick for her position in Russia during the early 2000s because, like with many other vital spheres of power in the country, the Ministry of Economic Development was dominated by close friends or personal acquaintances of Putin. Nabiullina was one of the few who did not come from the Saint Petersburg 90s political environment or the security services. Gref himself, like many others, praised Nabiullina and described her in 2007 as a:
“Transparent person, exceptionally honest, a workaholic. A person who understands the principles of a market economy very clearly and distinctly, who knows the work perfectly”.
That same year, she was selected as a Yale World Fellow. Nabiullina played a role in preparing Russia for its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), becoming Minister of Economic Development, later Assistant for Economic Affairs to the President, and finally nominated for the position of Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia. Nabiullina has been praised for the strategic economic plans of the late 2000s, overcoming the effects of the 2008 crisis and the waves of sanctions (2008, 2014-2021), making Russia more attractive for business, cleaning up the banking sector, or adopting a strict monetary policy. On the other hand, critics accuse her of hard-hawkish austerity methods, disregarding the effects of her economic policies on common folk, hiding structural problems, or being an active participant in the mismanagement of funds.
Nabiullina prefers to distance herself from fancy or polemic speeches, over the years, she has gained a reputation for signalling more through her looks rather than with words. Either through the colour of her clothes or brooches, the chief economist shares her feelings about the state of the Russian economy. Because of this, some of her public appearances since Russia invaded Ukraine last year were used to illustrate the grim situation that Russia faced with the barrage of sanctions.
Because of Putin’s high regard for Nabiullina she was one of those in the close circle that advised him about the possible economic consequences of launching a full-scale invasion in the months prior. Allegedly, Nabiullina presented her resignation as Chairwoman of the Central Bank when Putin ordered the attack, but the Russian president rejected it. This event, however, was never confirmed by the Kremlin. During that same month, Putin proposed Nabiullina for a third term as the Head of the Central Bank, despite her critics pointing out that she was responsible for not saving Russia's foreign currency reserves from sanctions. All this indicates that she still is highly regarded as an indispensable counterbalance to the hardliners that misled the president. Vladimir Putin believes his yes-men from the secret services and military have failed him, which led to a crackdown against them, a process evidenced by the numerous sackings in the FSB and changes of command in the Ukrainian war theatre, among others.
It is highly improbable that technocrats like Nabiullina or even her mentor, Herman Gref, will quit as long as the war lasts. Even if their work and that of many others during the last decade is being destroyed by war. Russia is likely a long road of hard economic stagnation ahead, but Nabiullina and the technocrats believe that if they quit, the part of the economy that has been under the firm grip of the government would undergo a decentralisation in the hands of corrupt siloviki. The political emphasis on private armies like that of Prigozhin is a signal that new centres of power are appearing, and they will ask for a bigger share sooner or later. Hardliner Sergey Glazyev, member of the executive body of the Eurasian Economic Union, has been rumoured for years to be one of the favourites of the siloviki. Glazyev, like many other Russian nationalists, has criticised Nabiullina and has argued that she and her team not only serve foreign interests but are also part of a US-led plot against Russia. In the past, the Central Bank has called on Glazyev to refrain from certain comments regarding the work of the institution as it created doubts in an already volatile economic environment.
As long as Nabiullina and the technocrats continue with their work in a similar manner and remain loyal to Putin, they will remain in their posts. They have managed to keep Russia afloat for now, but the scale of what is to come is unbeknownst even to the most experienced. ¿Will they manage to remain efficient with the ever-dwindling resources or succumb to their worst fears?