Maia Sandu's resounding victory: Charting Moldova's pro-European path
Executive Summary
Moldova’s pro-European path has been reinforced with Sandu's re-election.
The diaspora decisively supported the EU option, while internal divisions in Moldova remain.
Socio-political divisions constitute a risk and continue to be instrumentalised by foreign actors.
Some of the pro-Russian forces acknowledged their defeat but promised to keep counterbalancing as their discourse is strong in economically struggling regions.
Sandu’s government must initiate a rapid political and bureaucratic reshuffling to consolidate its position.
Moldova aims to attract foreign direct investment, especially from the EU, and strengthen its private sector to achieve long-term economic goals.
The government observes with caution the incoming Trump administration and the evolution of the Russo-Ukrainian war, as it aims to diversify its energy sources and cooperate in regional infrastructure projects.
In a decisive turn for Moldova's political future, Maia Sandu was re-elected as President with over 55% of the vote. This outcome underscores her strong mandate to pursue a pro-European agenda and implement significant reforms for the country's development. However, this victory was not solely the result of domestic political dynamics; Moldova's extensive diaspora significantly influenced the final result. Of the 1.1 million votes cast, almost 280,000 came from Moldovans living abroad, a record turnout for the diaspora, which accounted for 20% of the total electorate, with nearly 90% backing Sandu. The diaspora's support was crucial, tipping the scales toward Sandu and emphasising their rejection of entrenched corruption and hopes for more robust European integration.
Challenges ahead as Moldova seeks reform
Alexandr Stoianoglo, Sandu’s principal opponent, conceded defeat but framed his loss as a temporary setback. By calling it a 'lost battle, not the war', Stoianoglo signalled his intention to continue challenging Sandu‘s administration. His alignment with pro-Russian sentiments offers a counterweight to Sandu‘s pro-European approach, representing a persistent ideological division in Moldovan society. For many Moldovans, particularly in economically struggling regions, Stoianoglo‘s message resonates as an alternative path of stability and tradition, contrasting with the often-turbulent process of Western integration.
While Sandu’s victory marks a pivotal moment in Moldova’s path towards reform and deeper ties with the European Union, it also sets the stage for the critical parliamentary elections in 2025. These elections will determine whether Sandu and her pro-European allies can solidify their legislative support and continue implementing their agenda. The outcome of these elections will significantly shape the future of Moldova, either enabling Sandu to push through her reforms or posing significant challenges to her administration.
Meanwhile, Moldova's fragmented political scene continues to evolve. Figures like former Bascan of Gagauzia, Irina Vlah, who was among the candidates during the first presidential elections runoff on October 20, are preparing to challenge the dominance of the pro-European bloc by creating new political movements and capitalising on regional discontent. In addition, Igor Dodon, a vocal critic of Sandu, has threatened nationwide protests following the Central Electoral Commission's dismissal of socialist complaints about voting irregularities. This suggests that Moldova's political stability remains fragile, with the risk of further unrest and opposition backlash.
Sandu's win signals a potential era of reform and transformation, but her path forward is laden with challenges, including an immediate reckoning within her own political movement and government. The recent resignation of Andrei Spînu, Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development, from both the government and Sandu's Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) highlights the ongoing political reconfiguration within Moldova's leadership. Spînu, a close ally of Sandu and a key figure in her administration, cited a need to make space for new voices and dynamics. While his departure was framed as a routine political transition, it also signals potential friction and the complexity of navigating Moldova's reform agenda while maintaining party cohesion.
The political shake-up within the government extends beyond individual resignations. Igor Grosu, speaker of the Moldovan Parliament and a key figure in the PAS, has hinted at broader government reshuffles, indicating that changes may be necessary to strengthen the effectiveness and public trust in Sandu's administration. Though still being determined, discussions around the government reshuffle reveal that Sandu's camp is seeking to address internal weaknesses while preparing for the next phase of governance. The stakes are high, as public perception of Sandu's ability to deliver on reform promises will be closely tied to her government’s performance.
The Moldovan president is acutely aware of the stakes and has called for a robust plan to combat political corruption. This focus on anti-corruption was a cornerstone of her electoral campaign, and her recent statements reflect growing concerns about the influence of corruption within state institutions. Sandu's demand for a concrete anti-corruption strategy underscores her recognition that systemic issues, including political bribery and illicit lobbying, remain significant obstacles to Moldova's reformist aspirations. If Sandu is to maintain her credibility, visible progress on this front will be essential to convince both her domestic base and international partners of her commitment to change.
Sandu's task is now twofold: to bridge internal political divides while demonstrating the tangible benefits of European integration. To maintain momentum, President Sandu must deliver tangible improvements in governance, economic development, and the rule of law while navigating internal divisions and preparing for the 2025 parliamentary contest. The strong backing from Moldova's diaspora demonstrates a demand for reform, but translating that support into lasting change requires political unity and effective leadership. Success would deepen Moldova's ties to Europe and stabilise its democratic path; failure risks leaving the nation vulnerable to division and geopolitical tug-of-war. In this critical period, Moldova remains a case study of resilience and conflict, a nation striving to define its identity amid powerful external pressures and internal fractures. Sandu's presidency offers a beacon of hope, but its success depends on navigating a path toward genuine reform and societal unity.
Moldova and the EU: economic support and reform plans
In a significant boost for Moldova's economic development, the European Union has pledged €1.8 billion in support for the country’s ongoing economic reforms. The funds are part of a broader strategy to support Moldova’s economic growth, modernisation, and integration into European structures. The EU’s financial assistance is designed to help Moldova diversify its economy, improve governance, and address critical systemic issues such as corruption, the rule of law, and infrastructure development.
The EU has laid out a comprehensive economic plan for Moldova that aims to increase investment, create jobs, especially for the young generation, and improve the standard of living for Moldovans. The plan focuses on the implementation of critical reforms that align with EU standards, particularly in areas like energy, trade, and public sector modernisation. Moldova's energy sector will receive targeted support, helping to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on Russian energy, a critical vulnerability for the country.
Furthermore, the EU's assistance will focus on improving Moldova’s business climate to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI). Strengthening the private sector and reducing bureaucracy will be essential to Moldova’s long-term economic growth. The EU has also committed to supporting Moldova's education and healthcare sectors to improve human capital, which is seen as vital for the country's overall prosperity and development.
Efforts must also be focused on improving the energy system. Therefore, the government started to take significant steps to modernise the energy sector and align more closely with European Union norms. The Ministry of Energy recently announced vital measures aimed at liberalising Moldova's energy market, including changes to electricity market rules to encourage short-term energy trading and improve system stability. These new regulations, which include the introduction of day-ahead (PZU) and intra-day (PPZ) markets, are designed to enhance energy trading opportunities and reduce the economic costs of imbalances between production and consumption. By facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources and introducing differential pricing based on consumption times, these reforms aim to boost economic efficiency and promote sustainable energy practices. Furthermore, with the establishment of the Energy Market Operator Moldova (OPEM), a subsidiary of Romania’s OPCOM SA, Moldova is expected to strengthen its energy infrastructure, making it more resilient and attractive to investors.
However, the success of these reforms depends on the effectiveness of the Moldovan government in implementing them. The EU's funding is conditioned on the country making tangible progress in areas like anti-corruption, judicial independence, and public administration reform. If Moldova can meet these conditions, the government could experience a significant transformation in its economic landscape, which would not only improve the quality of life for its citizens but also bring Moldova closer to its European aspirations.
Moldova and the U.S. under Trump’s presidency: geopolitical and economic implications
As Moldova continues its European integration path, the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. President could shift U.S. foreign policy towards a more transactional approach, focusing less on supporting European integration and more on pragmatic, bilateral relations. Trump's historical scepticism toward NATO and his preference for reducing foreign aid could impact Moldova's aspirations for closer security ties with the West, potentially diminishing U.S. support for Moldova's defence sector and European ambitions.
Trump’s "America First" policy and his more flexible stance on Russia, including his previous praise for Vladimir Putin, might make Moldova feel less secure in its relationship with the U.S. In a second term, Trump could prioritise stability and arms deals over deeper political and security commitments, limiting Moldova’s ability to leverage U.S. support in countering Russian influence in the region. On the economic front, Trump may reduce aid to Moldova's domestic reform efforts, including anti-corruption programs and rule-of-law initiatives. U.S. investment in Moldova could also be more cautious, depending on whether Moldova can offer a favourable environment for trade and business relations.
However, on energy matters, Trump’s first term saw a push for energy diversification in Europe, including support for projects that reduced reliance on Russian gas. During his second term, efforts could be made to strengthen Moldova’s energy security, particularly in diversifying energy imports and supporting regional energy infrastructure projects. Still, a more transactional approach could require Moldova to provide more significant incentives or align more closely with U.S. geopolitical interests.
Ultimately, a Trump could necessitate that Moldova further align itself with European powers and regional partners, as U.S. engagement may become less predictable and more conditional. While Trump’s approach may benefit specific areas, such as energy security, it could also undermine Moldova’s broader European aspirations and complicate efforts to strengthen democratic institutions and the rule of law.
Conclusion
In this critical period, Moldova remains a case study of resilience and conflict, a nation striving to define its identity amid powerful external pressures and internal fractures. Sandu's presidency offers a beacon of hope, but its success depends on navigating a path toward genuine reform and societal unity while balancing shifting geopolitical dynamics, including a potentially unpredictable U.S. foreign policy.
About the Author
Maria Buzduga, Programme Analyst - Europe
Maria joined London Politica as a Programme Analyst for the Europe Desk, where her research focuses on the social and political implications of geopolitical developments in former Soviet countries, with a particular emphasis on the Republic of Moldova. She explores the region's evolving role on the global stage, as well as the European Union's enlargement process and its foreign policies towards Eastern Europe, offering in-depth insights into the dynamic relationship between Eastern Europe and the EU.
Maria holds an MSc in Diplomacy and International Cooperation from the University of Trieste and a MA in Foreign Languages and Literatures from the University of Verona.