Sergei Shoigu: Military Leader or the Fall Guy?
Sergei Shoigu is the current Minister of Defense for the Russian Federation, he has served in this position since 2012. He has held this position with no military or security service experience. Prior to this position, he was in charge of disaster response, which meant that he was commonly seen at disaster sites. As Putin began rising to power, the two became close, especially as Shoigu ended up in charge of Putin’s party, United Russia.
He has become the face of the invasion, constantly being seen or spoken about on Russian media. In the beginning it made sense, he had successfully helped lead the Russian military to annex Crimea. However, as he is the face of a slowly-failing invasion, if territorial loss is announced by the Russian government, it would be incredibly easy for Putin and the media to ensure Shoigu takes the fall. According to a former Defense Ministry staffer, Shoigu would not mind being ousted at this point, “he wants out of this mess”. If true, this may lead one to believe he would start acting out of turn, however, given his relationship with Putin, and what has occurred so far, it is unlikely that this will happen. Shoigu is remarkably loyal, and he has displayed this time and time again.
It is unlikely that Shoigu will be replaced anytime soon, despite the recent failings in Ukraine. The replacement of Shoigu, a close ally, and leader of the Russian military would only weaken Putin’s power.