War in Ukraine: Will the West be able to sustain its unity against Russia?
As soon as Russian President Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, the collective West took severe measures against Russia to contain and punish it. This included imposing harsh sanctions on Moscow, delivering a substantial amount of military aid to Ukraine, and deploying more NATO troops in the eastern flank of the alliance. For the first time since the end of the Cold War such unity against Russia has been observed in the West, with the US demonstrating a commitment to preserving stability in Europe and the EU, speaking with one voice against Moscow. Even Germany, which has traditionally pursued the policy of bringing Russia closer to Europe via economic cooperation, has shifted its approach to Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine. Berlin significantly reduced Russia’s share in its gas supply from 55% to 26%, with the eventual aim of completely cutting off gas imports from Russia by mid-2024. The war has also reinforced the US role as a key security guarantor of Europe, which had been recently challenged by the US focus on China alongside the EU’s strategic autonomy debates and now restored transatlantic unity, which was previously shattered thanks to former US president Donald Trump’s efforts during his presidential term.
Now over eight months into the war, empowered by the West, Ukraine is achieving significant victories on the battlefield, recapturing lost territories in the south and east parts of the country. Faced with defeats, Russian President Putin is resorting to his last options: announcing mobilisation, cutting off energy supplies to Europe, and most importantly threatening the West with the use of nuclear weapons. In the face of these developments, the maintenance of firm unity against Russia has become more important than ever.
As the war drags on, however, and the rising costs and stakes of supporting Ukraine are expected to rise further as winter approaches, a question arises: will the West be able to sustain its unity against Russia and continue supporting Ukraine?
Changes in public opinion and the looming challenge of a potential Republican midterm victory
The US has been playing a crucial role in leading the unity of Western states against the Kremlin as the biggest supporter of Ukraine on all indicators: military aid (27.6 billion euro), humanitarian aid (9.5 billion euro), and financial aid (15.2 billion euro). A series of EU member states, in particular the Baltic states and Poland, rely heavily on the US for resolving the security crisis caused by Russia. It is possible however, that US support for Ukraine may wane given the decline in the US public’s preparedness to pay the price for Kyiv and the likelihood that Republicans could win the majority of Congress seats in the US November midterms.
As the war grinds on and the impacts of it on ordinary Americans’ lives become evident, with high inflation and rising prices, public opinion in the US is changing. Compared to the initial months of the war, Americans are now less worried about Ukraine being defeated by Russia and more concerned with the war’s potential impacts and economic costs. A poll conducted between September 13-18 suggests that only 38% of US adults are extremely or very concerned about the possibility of Ukrainian defeat, down from 55% in May. According to another poll, conducted by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Data for Progress from September 16-19, 2022, the majority of Americans (58%) are against the US sending aid to Ukraine at current levels if gas and food prices rise in the US. Additionally, 57% of likely voters support the pursuit of diplomatic negotiations by the US as soon as possible to end the war in Ukraine, even if it requires Ukraine to make compromises with Russia. This shift in public opinion will make it harder for the Biden Administration to maintain its current support for Ukraine in coming months, potentially causing his party’s popularity rates to decrease significantly as well.
Against the backdrop of Americans’ growing dissatisfaction with the economic costs of the war, it is an increasing likelihood that Republicans, who are more focused on domestic issues, will win in the November midterm elections. This could jeopardise US support for Ukraine, thereby breaking the unity in the West against Moscow. Many Republicans, particularly the Pro-Trump isolationist group within the party, do not support pursuing tough policy on Russia, questioning Biden’s aid programme for Ukraine. While a new $40 billion aid package for Ukraine was discussed in the House of Representatives in May, 57 House Republicans voted against it. According to one senior House Republican "after the $40 billion, there were a lot of Republicans saying, 'This is the last time I'm going to support Ukraine funding'", meaning that this number, voting against, is set to rise significantly. Particularly if Republicans take control of the House of Representatives and Senate in November. Concerns about the loss of US support have been compounded further following House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy’s statement that Republicans will not write “a blank check” for Ukraine if they win in the midterm elections.
The surge of far-right forces across the EU may cause a loss of support for Ukraine
Despite the show of remarkable unity and determination at the onset of the war, real challenges to EU unity are beginning to emerge. As the war turns into a war of attrition and people in the EU feel the real impact of war, being seriously hit by the energy crisis and soaring cost of living, calls to lift sanctions against Russia and end the war as soon as possible are growing louder. A poll conducted across ten European countries (Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, and the UK) suggests that a bigger share (35%) of Europeans want the war to end as soon as possible, even if it comes at the cost of concessions from Ukraine. The number of Europeans who believe that sanctions are more harmful to the EU and that governments should focus on rising living costs is therefore on the rise, which has created favourable conditions for the rise of the Eurosceptic and pro-Kremlin far-right parties that had been silenced temporarily in the face of Russia’s brutal attack.
In Sweden, far-right Sweden Democrats won second place in national elections held in September and are set to influence a new centre-right government policy. In France, Marie Le Pen, who considers sanctions against Russia to be useless, achieved the biggest-ever score (41.2%) for the far-right in April’s presidential elections after campaigning on the cost of living crisis. In Italy, far-right Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Miloni claimed victory in the general elections in coalition with Matteo Salvini, who criticises the EU sanctions on Russia, and Silvio Berlusconi, who blames Zelenskiy for provoking the Russian invasion. With the surge of far-right parties across the EU, member states may lose focus on support for Ukraine and shift their attention to solving domestic issues amid growing worries about the cost of living and energy crises.
Additionally, EU member state Hungary, where the far-right Victor Urban is in power, has already been posing a challenge to EU unity against the Kremlin. Back in July, Victor Urban stated that Russia’s concerns about NATO enlargement are understandable and Hungary continued to conduct negotiations with Russia to purchase an additional 700 billion cubic meters of gas while the EU has been aiming at reducing gas imports from Russia to the minimum. While the Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the fundamentals of Germany’s policy toward Russia, such a change has evidently not happened in the policy of Hungary toward Russia.
To conclude, it is evident from the public polls across the US and EU that a rising number of people are concerned with the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and want the war to end as soon as possible. Under these circumstances, western governments supporting harsh measures against Russia come under increasing pressure from their electorates and may subsequently struggle to introduce new sanctions against the Kremlin and deliver new aid packages for Ukraine. With the Republicans’ expected takeover of Congress in the US and the entry of more far-right forces in the governments of the EU member states, it is increasingly likely that actionable government support for Ukraine from the West will fade.