Climate change, El Niño and food security in China

Heavy rainfall in China has caused significant damage to wheat fields, leading to an increase in wheat prices. As the world's top consumer and producer of wheat, China's agricultural sector plays a crucial role in global food security. The impact of the recent extreme weather events on wheat production could be catastrophic for China’s food security, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has announced measures being taken to mitigate the risks.

Henan province, accounting for 25% of China's wheat production, has suffered the worst rainfall near harvest in over a decade. This extreme weather pattern has caused flooding and landslides, resulting in the loss of lives, and further exacerbating concerns about food security. The recent occurrence of record-breaking heatwaves and droughts in China, including Shanghai's hottest May in a century, has raised alarm bells regarding the vulnerability of the country's food supply. Despite the current rain, officials remain worried that the drought may extend to the Yangtze River Basin, which provides China with two-thirds of its rice. Animals have already succumbed to the intense heat, further underscoring the urgency to address the water scarcity issue. El Niño, a natural phenomenon that brings even warmer temperatures originating from the Pacific, is also a cause for concern, as it could exacerbate China's food security challenges.

China's wheat production reached 140 million tonnes in 2022, highlighting its significance as a key crop for the nation and the world. The country is expected to have a bumper crop this year, which is a harvest with an unusually high yield. However, the heavy rains in the last few weeks have resulted in damaged wheat crops, pushing up prices in regions like Henan and causing concerns for both domestic and international markets. Due to the damage to wheat crops, animal feed markets have started to replace corn with cheaper wheat, leading to further price fluctuations. While the rains have temporarily supported prices, the long-term impact remains uncertain, as commodity analysts in Shanghai suggest that clarity will only emerge once the rainfall subsides, which could be as late as August.

Several government agencies agree with the Ministry of Emergency Management also predicting that rain, floods, and hailstorms are likely to persist until August. Northern China faces water-related disasters, the South may experience drought, and the East Coast, a key driver of economic growth, could encounter typhoon storms earlier than usual. Sichuan and Chongqing provinces face a significant risk of reduced rainfall, increasing the threat of drought and adding to the complexity of China's food security situation. Food security has been identified as a top priority by the Chinese government, with President Xi Jinping emphasising its critical importance to national security. Scientists have already warned that climate change will exacerbate global food security challenges in the future, making it crucial for China to address its vulnerabilities and develop resilient agricultural practices.

So far, markets have been focused on the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine. On 6th June,  following the sabotage and subsequent flooding of the surrounding area, the price of global wheat spiked 2.4% to US$6.39 per bushel. Corn and oats both rose by 1% and 0.73% respectively. Markets have likely priced in the upcoming possible disruptions in wheat supplies from China, but the extent to which the disasters could damage this year’s yield is yet to be seen, and could surprise analysts. The Kakhovka Dam’s destruction is a reminder to markets of the volatility of wheat supplies, especially to developed countries which are particularly affected by shortages.