Small Modular Reactors Nuclear Renaissance?
In the era of climate urgency, increasing energy demands, and geopolitical uncertainties, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could redefine the energy landscape and provide viable alternatives to current energy sources. SMRs present a scalable, safer alternative to traditional nuclear power. This report from London Politica explores the potential of SMRs to revolutionise energy production, mitigate climate change, and enhance energy security. With uranium prices soaring and global interest in nuclear energy surging, SMRs are poised to play a critical role in the nuclear renaissance.
Our comprehensive analysis covers key regions, including the US, Europe, and China, examining their nuclear strategies, regulatory landscapes, and market dynamics. We also delve into the controversies surrounding uranium supply chains and the broader political and economic implications of nuclear power. Dive into our in-depth analysis of the future of SMRs and their global impact.
The U.S. LNG Pause: Implications for the Global Fertiliser and Food Markets
Peter Fawley
The U.S. LNG Pause
On January 26, the Biden administration announced a temporary pause on approvals of new liquified natural gas (LNG) export projects. The pause applies to proposed or future projects that have not yet received authorisation from the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) to export LNG to countries that do not have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States. This is significant as many of the largest importers of U.S. LNG–including members of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, and China–do not have FTAs with the United States. Without the DOE authorisation, an LNG project will not be allowed to export to these countries. The policy will not affect existing export projects or those currently under construction. The Department of Energy has not offered any indication for how long the pause will be in effect.
This pause will have political and economic implications across the globe, and is expected to apply further pressure to the LNG market, fertiliser prices, and agricultural production. The following analysis will first delve into the rationale for the pause, the expected impact it will have on global LNG supplies, and the associated risks this poses for the fertiliser and food markets. It will then examine the impact of this policy change on India’s agricultural sector, given that the country is heavily reliant on LNG imports to manufacture fertilisers for agricultural production. The article will conclude with brief remarks about the pause.
Reasons for the Pause
According to the Biden administration, the current review framework is outdated and does not properly account for the contemporary LNG market. The White House’s announcement cited issues related to the consideration of energy costs and environmental impacts. The pause will allow DOE to update the underlying analysis and review process for LNG export authorisations to ensure that they more adequately account for current considerations and are aligned with the public interest.
There are also likely political motivations at play, given the upcoming election in the United States. Both climate considerations and domestic energy prices are expected to garner significant attention during the lead up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The Biden administration has been under increasing pressure from environmental activists, the political left, and domestic industry regarding the U.S. LNG industry’s impact on climate goals and domestic energy prices. In fact, over 60 U.S policymakers recently sent a letter to DOE urging its leadership to reexamine how it factors in public interests when authorising new licences for LNG export projects.
These groups have argued that the stark increase in recent U.S. LNG exports is incompatible with U.S. climate commitments and policy objectives, as the LNG value chain has a sizeable emissions footprint. Moreover, there is a concern about the standard it sets for future policy. An implicit and uncontested acceptance of LNG could signal that the U.S is wholly committed to continued use of fossil fuels as an energy source, leading to more industry investments in fossil fuels at the expense of renewable energy technologies. In an unusual political alliance, large U.S. industrial manufacturers are lobbying alongside environmentalists to curb LNG exports. These consumers, who are dependent on natural gas for their manufacturing processes, worry that additional LNG export projects will raise domestic natural gas prices. Therefore, the pause may then be interpreted as an acknowledgement of these concerns and an attempt to reassure supporters that the Biden administration is committed to furthering its climate goals and securing lower domestic energy prices.
Impact on LNG Supplies
Since the pause only pertains to prospective projects, there will be no impact on current U.S. LNG export capacity. However, the pause may constrain supply and reduce forecasted global output as the new policy indefinitely halts progress on proposed LNG projects that are currently awaiting DOE authorisation. In the long-term, this announcement has the potential to tighten the LNG market, potentially resulting in increased natural gas prices and other commercial ramifications. Because the U.S. is currently the world’s largest LNG exporter, a drop in expected future U.S. supplies may force LNG importers to seek to diversify their supply. Some LNG buyers will likely redirect their attention to other, more certain sources of LNG, such as Qatar or Australia. Additionally, industry may be more keen to invest in projects in countries that have less regulatory ambiguity related to LNG projects.
Risk for the Global Fertiliser and Food Markets
Natural gas is key to the production of nitrogen-based fertilisers, which are the most common fertilisers on the market. With regard to the use of natural gas in fertiliser production, most of it (approximately 80 per cent) is employed as a raw material feedstock, while the remaining amount is used to power the synthesis process. Farmers and industry prefer natural gas as a feedstock as it enables the efficient production of effective fertilisers at the least cost.
The U.S. pause on new LNG projects is an unsettling signal to already fragile natural gas markets given the existence of relatively tight current supplies and a forecasted shortfall in future supply levels. This announcement will exacerbate vulnerabilities and put increased pressure on global supplies, potentially leading to greater volatility and price escalation. Additionally, increased global demand for natural gas will further strain the LNG market. Therefore, global fertiliser prices may increase given that natural gas is an integral input in fertiliser production. Natural gas supply uncertainty stemming from the U.S. announcement may not only impact market prices for fertiliser, but could also increase government subsidies needed to support the agricultural industry to protect farmers from price volatility. Due to the increased subsidy outlay, government expenditure on other publicly-funded programs could plausibly be reduced.
The last time there was a significant shock to the natural gas market, fertiliser shortages and greater food insecurity ensued. Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was a stark increase in natural gas prices, which led to a rise in the cost of fertiliser production. This prompted many firms to curtail output, causing fertiliser prices to soar to multi-year highs. Higher fertiliser costs will theoretically induce farmers to switch from nitrogen-dependent crops (e.g., corn and wheat) to less fertiliser-intensive crops or decrease their overall usage of fertilisers, both of which may jeopardise overall agricultural yield. Given that fertiliser usage and agricultural output are positively correlated, surging fertiliser costs in 2022 translated into higher food prices across the world. While inflationary pressures have subsided in recent time, global food markets remain vulnerable to fertiliser prices and associated supply shocks. This is especially true for countries that are largely dependent on their agricultural industry for both economic output and domestic consumption. Food insecurity and global food supplies may also be further constrained by unrelated impacts on crop yields, such as extreme weather and droughts.
Case Study: India
The future LNG supply shortfall and its impact on fertiliser and food markets may be felt most acutely by India. The country is considered an agrarian economy, as many of its citizens – particularly the rural populations – depend on domestic agricultural production for income and food supplies. Fertiliser use is rampant in India and the country’s agricultural industry relies heavily on nitrogen-based fertilisers for agricultural production. With a steadily rising population and a finite amount of arable land, expanded fertiliser usage will be necessary to increase crop production per acre. As a majority of India’s fertiliser is synthesised from imported LNG, the expected increased demand for fertiliser will necessitate more LNG imports.
LNG imports to India are projected to significantly rise in 2024, with analysts forecasting a year-on-year growth of approximately 10 per cent. Over the long-term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that overall natural gas imports to India will grow from 3.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022 to 13.7 Bcf/d in 2050, a 4.9 per cent average annual increase. The agricultural industry is a substantial contributor to this growth. This trend is only expected to continue, as India has announced that it plans to phase out urea (a nitrogenous fertiliser) imports by 2025 in order to further develop its domestic fertiliser industry. To ensure adequate supplies for domestic urea production, India is expected to increase its natural gas demand and associated reliance on LNG imports. A recent agreement between Deepak Fertilisers, a large Indian fertiliser firm, and multinational energy company Equinor exemplifies this. The agreement secures supplies of LNG (0.65 million tons annually) for 15 years, starting in 2026.
Concluding Remarks
The U.S. pause on new LNG export facilities will have ramifications for the global natural gas market and supply chain. While current export capacity will not be jeopardised, the policy change will delay future projects and may put investment plans into question. The pause will also have implications for downstream markets in which natural gas is an important input, such as the fertiliser market. There are a couple of questions that now loom over the LNG industry: (1) what will be the duration of the pause; and (2) to what extent will the pause affect LNG markets?
While the U.S. Department of Energy has given no firm timeline for the pause, analysts estimate – based on previous updates – that the DOE review will likely last through at least the end of 2024. The expectation is that the longer the pause remains in effect, the more uncertainty it will create, especially as it relates to private industry investment decisions and confidence in U.S. LNG in the long-term. In addition to the fertiliser and food markets, transportation, electricity generation, chemical, ceramic, textile, and metallurgical industries may all be affected by the pause. One potentially positive consequence is that because LNG is often thought of as a transitional fuel (between coal and renewable energies), a large enough impact on LNG supplies could accelerate the energy transition directly from coal to renewable sources of energy, providing a boost to the clean energy technologies market. However, the pause may also create tensions with trading partners as it could be interpreted as an export control or a discriminatory trade practice, both of which stand in violation of the principles of the multilateral rules-based trading system. This may expose the U.S. to potential challenges and disputes at the World Trade Organization. Although it may be some time before we are provided concrete answers to these questions, the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will provide some insight into what LNG policies in the U.S. will look like going forward.
African Green Hydrogen Exports: What are the risks?
Following Europe’s recent scramble for Africa’s natural gas resources due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe is now increasingly investing in the development of green hydrogen projects on the continent. Given Africa’s significant renewable energy potential, driven by its substantial solar photovoltaic power potential, the continent is well equipped to develop large-scale green hydrogen projects to supply European demand. Whilst there may be significant economic pay-offs for African countries exporting hydrogen to Europe, with an estimated €1 trillion green hydrogen potential, there are also many risks in the development of the nascent industry which may inhibit long-term growth.
Source: International Renewable Energy Agency
European hydrogen plans
Hydrogen has become a key part of Europe’s decarbonisation plans in its net-zero goals. Despite currently accounting for less than 2% of Europe’s energy consumption, the EU is aiming to ramp up production over the next decade. With the introduction of the REPowerEU plan in May 2022, the European Commission (EC) clearly stated its intention to utilise renewable hydrogen as an important energy carrier in its attempt to reduce its reliance upon Russia's fossil fuel imports. The EU plans to produce 10 million tonnes and import 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030.
The EU has planned to secure strategic partnerships with developing African nations such as Namibia and Egypt to ensure that they have a secure supply of renewable hydrogen. The incentives built into the EU regulations, enticing African nations to develop green hydrogen export facilities to Europe, could come at the expense of local populations. The energy poverty of many African nations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, has led many to argue that their domestic energy needs should be prioritised over helping the EU deliver its climate strategy.
The EU and individual European nations have already begun making huge commitments to green hydrogen in Africa, including provisions for exports from the continent to serve Europe’s domestic needs. The recent signing of a $34 billion agreement for a giant green hydrogen project in Mauritania is just one of those developments. Similarly, some European nations are working on hydrogen pipeline projects in Africa to meet their climate targets and to provide more secure energy supplies in future. Such projects include the “SoutH2 Corridor” pipeline project connecting North Africa with Italy, Austria, and Germany. The energy ministries in the respective countries have all signed a joint letter of political support for developing the 3,300-kilometre-long hydrogen pipeline corridor.
Source: Offshore Energy
Risk to African nations
Economic feasibility
Whilst many European nations emphasise Africa’s huge renewable energy to create green hydrogen, there are also significant economic risks that remain in its development. According to a study by the European Investment Bank, International Solar Alliance and the African Union, large-scale green hydrogen generation can enable African nations to supply 25 million tons of green hydrogen to global energy markets, equal to 15% of the current amount of gas used in the EU. The study also reported that green hydrogen is economically viable at €2/kg, due to the abundant availability of solar energy, enabling the possibility of low-carbon economic growth across the continent and reducing emissions by 40%. With more than 52 green hydrogen projects in Africa having been already announced, and production set to reach 7.2 million tonnes by the end of 2035, African nations look set to have massive increases in GDP, whilst also benefitting from the many new permanent and skilled jobs generated across the continent.
However, policymakers must be cautious to fully weigh up the economic feasibility of such projects. Limited transportation infrastructure makes transporting hydrogen which costly and hardly economically competitive. Even maritime shipping, the most cost-effective method for distances over 3,000km, would cost an estimated additional$1 to $2.75/kg. For shorter distances, the cost of pipeline transport could be significantly lower, estimated at$0.18/kg per 1,000km for new hydrogen pipelines and $0.08/kg for retrofitted gas pipelines. Given its economic competitiveness, hydrogen pipelines are the preferred choice of transportation for European nations, with the EU set to provide huge subsidies for a proposed hydrogen pipeline, named the“South Corridor”, stretching from North Africa to Bavaria. Nevertheless, as the green hydrogen industry is at a very early stage of development, it is very difficult to predict how the market will grow in the long term and accurately predict the economic payoffs of hydrogen pipelines for African nations. The demand for hydrogen could vary from150 to 500 million metric tonnes/year by 2050 due to the level of worldwide climate goals, specific actions taken within various sectors, efforts to enhance energy efficiency, direct electrification, and the adoption of carbon capture technologies. Therefore, if the European market does not develop at the speed and scale expected, African nations investing in green hydrogen will be left with huge debts to be paid for by their populations.
Source: IEA
2. Energy poverty
The potential development of green hydrogen exports to Europe should also not overshadow Africa’s broader energy landscape. At present, 600 million people, primarily located in sub-Saharan Africa and equivalent to 43% of the total African population, lack access to electricity. Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) consumes approximately 180 kWh of energy per capita, compared to 13,000 kWh per capita in the U.S. and 6,500 kWh in Europe. Renewables also remain in their infancy in Africa, with approximately 180 TWh of renewable power generated in Africa in 2018, equivalent to approximately less than 0.02% of its estimated potential. African nations must be cautious to ensure that they choose the correct trade-off between utilising hydrogen for exports to Europe and their own domestic needs. Should African nations divert their resources toward hydrogen production for exports, some fear that green hydrogen may become another “neo-colonial resource grab” and starve African nations of their resources.
Therefore, African nations must ensure that all the benefits of green hydrogen exports are not extracted for European gain. The agreements between the EU and African nations such as Egypt, Morocco and Namibia already show worrying signs of resource exploitation. Despite these deals being presented as a win-win scenario, the rules allow hydrogen projects to “cannibalise” the local infrastructure for exports. Namibia is a prime example as it is racing to become Africa’s first green hydrogen exporting hub despite only 56% of its citizens having access to electricity in 2022 and relying upon imports to meet its electricity demand. The Namibian government hopes to develop 10 hydrogen export projects with European nations. However, there are concerns over potential misuse of climate finance, which should focus on aiding local development, rather than export projects.
Outlook
With increasing interest and investment from European nations into green hydrogen projects in Africa, countries on the continent must remain cautious of the huge benefits promised by their European counterparts. Despite the continent's unparalleled potential for producing low-cost green hydrogen in the future, producing green hydrogen at economically competitive prices remains elusive given the high costs of production and transportation. However, should these costs be brought down by increased European investment, African nations may well prioritise meeting their own domestic energy demands and accelerating domestic renewable energy deployment before considering exporting green hydrogen to Europe in large-scale quantities.
North African Energy Market Analysis: Algeria
This report serves as an overview of the risks – mainly political, economic, social – in the Algerian energy market. It will look at natural gas, as well as crude oil and green energy. The report is also part of a broader series of analyses on North African energy markets.