Situational Assessment - Belgorod
By: Vanina Meyer
On May 22, two anti-Putin Russian military groups, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC, Russian: Русский добровольческий корпус, РДК, RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (Легион «Свобода России», ЛСР, LCR) reportedly carried out a cross-border incursion in the southwestern Russian region of Belgorod, about 80 kilometres north of the city of Kharkiv.
The Russia Volunteer Corps, led by Denis Kapustin, is composed of Russian nationals fighting in Ukraine against their own country, aiming to liberate Russia from Putin's regime and protect Ukrainian civilians. On May 23, the RVC published a video and a statement in their Telegram channel, explaining their motives “The country is ripe for change. The country is ripe for liberation. And most of all they are waiting for the liberation of the territories bordering the war zone: Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod.”
The Freedom of Russia Legion (LCR), led by Ilya Ponomaryov, is a Russian group based in Ukraine and formed in 2022, with the goal of fighting against Putin's forces and creating a demilitarised zone between Russia and Ukraine and described the cross-border raid as a “peacekeeping operation”.
Recent Developments
Video footage from May 22 shows fighters behind the sign of the city of Bezliudovka in Russia near Belgorod and the written caption “It looks like RDK fighters are visiting their homeland again! The flames of the struggle flare up!”. The shelling damaged several residential buildings in the city though it is difficult to ascertain the extent of the damage.
According to the FRL, the operations’ goals of the militia groups “were successfully achieved”. On May 23, the Legion destroyed a motorised rifle company of the Russian army.
Conflicting narratives
The Russian Defence Ministry stated that the Ukrainian regime was behind this operation and were carrying out “terrorist actions against civilians”. The Ukrainian military intelligence did not confirm nor denied its involvement in the operation. Mykhailo Podolyak, Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy tweeted about the situation in the Belgorod region, saying that Ukraine has “nothing to do with it”.
The Governor of the region of Belgorod, Vyacheslav Gladkov, stated that hundreds of Belgorod residents were evacuated from their homes on Monday and placed in temporary housing after fighting broke out. On Tuesday, amid continued fighting, the governor warned people not to return to their homes.
In the evening of May 22nd, Russia declared a counterterrorism operation in the region and claimed to have crushed the cross-border attack killing more than “70 Ukrainian nationalists” and destroyed four armoured vehicles and five pick-ups. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed the enemy fighters were surrounded by "air strikes, artillery fire and active action by border units" and the Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov declared one civilian was killed "at the hands of the Ukrainian armed forces".
The RDK published a video on their Telegram channel in response to those claims, with a caption saying “And regarding the dozens of MaxxPro personally destroyed by Governor Gladkov. Well, you understand” filming armoured vehicles the Russian military claimed to have destroyed. They also responded with a video and a statement“ We do not know what columns of equipment Mr. Konashenkov destroyed in his reports, but the Russian Volunteer Corps has no losses. P.S. Regarding the photos of the killed "saboteurs" walking around the net, our fighters wear cartoons, not a pixel. This is a note.”
Interview with White Rex, commandeur of the RVC, dubbed ‘Ukrainian saboteurs’ by Russian officials.
On the night of May 23, Russia claimed “numerous” drones attacks hit the region of Belgorod dropping explosive devices and damaging infrastructures and cars. According to Viatcheslav Gladkov, a large number of attacks were perpetrated by UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle) into the roadway targeting the districts of Grayvoron, Yakovlevsky, Borisov, Volokonovsky, Krasnoyaruzhsky, Shebekinsky city district, and Yakovlevsky urban district with damages to infrastructures, cars, private houses, office buildings but no casualties.
Analysis and Implications
The cross-border raid from Ukraine into Russian territory constitutes the biggest Ukrainian cross-border raid since the beginning of the war and has raised implications and speculation about the motives and involvement of both sides. The Kremlin has labelled the incident as an incursion by saboteurs deployed by Ukraine. On the Ukrainian side, Ukrainian officials have denied direct involvement, referring to the groups as partisan forces composed of Russian citizens. While neither version could be independently verified, both Russia and Ukraine are likely to present their own versions of events to support their narratives.
The attack has highlighted Russia's vulnerability on its own territory and raised questions about the preparedness of its security forces. This operation damaged the image of a strong Russia able to protect its frontiers and highlights the “multi-domain security threat” with losses in combat aircraft, explosive device attacks and direct partisan action.
Russian officials focus on the narrative of having the situation under control by having neutralised the groups from the Russian territory. However, other sources online and on the ground claim that Russian evidence might have been orchestrated by the Russian authorities to avoid showing weakness. The opposing versions between Russian officials and the militia groups show the online battle to win the narratives with pictures, video footage and statements. The British Defense Ministry also stated that Russia could benefit from the narrative of being attacked to present itself as the victim of the war.
Russia believed the attack was designed to “divert attention” from Bakhmut, the Ukrainian city where Russia is tightening its grip and currently being the centre of attention. However, this cross-border operation might have implications on the morale of the troops and the civilian population as the Kremlin’s so-called special operation in Ukraine increasingly affects Russians in the Belgorod region, and elsewhere.
Both the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion gave a press conference and interviews on May 24th on the results of their raid near the border in northern Ukraine (see photo). Both groups are trying to keep momentum and have claims that while the active part of their operation is over, they will keep fighting the Russian forces.
On the Ukrainian side, the posture is to sit and watch. Mykhailo Podolyak, the Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy states in a tweet “Seriously, it's time for the Russian regime to think about objective reality: the sooner you leave all the territories of #Ukraine, the less of a catastrophe Russia will end up with in the end…”. He also denies with irony the involvement of Ukraine in the cross-border raid by drawing a parallelism with the invasion of Crimea by Russia in 2014 when the latter claimed tanks could be found in “any military store”:
However, footage of the pro-Ukrainian forces shows that the RVC and Freedom of Russia Legion were using US-manufactured tactical vehicles such as MaxxPro (see photo). This raised concerns about Kiev's actual support for the Russian extremist groups based in Ukraine. Likewise, Denis Nikitin, leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, declined to disclose how they were obtained. The fact that Ukraine received the same military vehicles as part of the assistance provided by the US further raised doubts about the involvement of Kyiv in supporting this operation.
The cross-border raid operation could trigger the reinforcement of the Belgorod front, resulting in the dispersion of Russian troops across different fronts and therefore weakening their military capabilities and presenting a potential vulnerability in case of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. The incident response of Russia suggests that it is one of the most serious border incursions since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. The situation remains complex, with opposing narratives, battles in the online sphere with disinformation, and definitive answers are difficult to ascertain.