By Ethan Kawamara Mugire

ABSTRACT

The year 2024 constitutes the biggest election year in history with 83 elections across 78 countries with more than 4 billion people expected to go to the polls, which represents nearly half of the world population.

In this new series, London Politica’s Intelligence Support Group and the Emergent Technologies department collaborate to provide in-depth case studies based on OSINT (Open Source Intelligence Analysis) investigation. 

Mali has witnessed two coups between 2020 to 2021. Colonel Assimi Goita led the first coup in August 2020 removing elected President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and became the vice-president in a civilian administration. Within a month, in September 2020, the interim government agreed on an 18-month transition timeline for returning to civilian rule. Later, in April 2021, legislative and presidential elections were decided to take place on February 27 2022 by the transitional administration. Goita led a second coup in May 2021 and was sworn in as interim President in June 2021.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Mali has witnessed two coups between 2020 to 2021.

• In a politically volatile environment, Russian disinformation actors surged in late 2021, promoting narratives enabling Russian mercenary forces to entrench themselves under the guise of counterterrorism assistance.

• To more directly influence Malians and shape a pro-Russian narrative environment, the Kremlin has cultivated several regional media outlets to serve as friendly propaganda arms.

• The Kremlin's influence in Mali has grown, with Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group playing a significant role in supporting the Malian government. This involvement has been accompanied by a sophisticated disinformation campaign targeting Malian citizens through social media.