Series Analysis - Influence Operations and Mis/Disinformation during elections
By Vanina Meyer and Ridipt Singh
ABSTRACT
In a world increasingly digitised and connected, the period of elections is a time to scrutinise and monitor the sources of news and information. From traditional media to the multiplication of social media platforms, citizens have never been more connected and informed in real-time to any information. At the same time, it creates more uncertainty about the integrity of the information spreading around the world in just a click.
The year 2024 constitutes the biggest election year in history with 83 elections across 78 countries with more than 4 billion people expected to go to the polls, which represents nearly half of the world population.
In this new series, London Politica’s Intelligence Support Group and the Emergent Technologies department collaborate to provide in-depth case studies based on OSINT (Open Source Intelligence Analysis) investigation.
The teams will focus on countries (or conglomerate of countries) analysing the modus operandi of mis-disinformation and influence operations, the actors involved, the impact on the electoral process and the actions taken by the government to counter these challenges. The heterogeneity of the cases chosen provides a wide spectrum of understanding across continents, different types of regimes (democracies, authoritarian regimes) and challenges faced (undermining of the freedom of the press, influence operations from a foreign state, floods of AI-generated content).
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
During elections, there is an increased risk of influence operations i.e., foreign governments attempting to interfere and influence the votes and undermine trust in electoral processes.
Misinformation and disinformation in the context of increased digitalisation with the omnipresent use of the internet and social media platforms to circulate information can undermine free and fair electoral processes.
Both issues are linked but have key differences. Misinformation refers to the “false or inaccurate information that is unknowingly shared, with no intent to deceive or mislead the public” whereas disinformation designates “false or inaccurate information created and spread with the intent to deceive or mislead the public”.
In terms of viability, a firm influence of false information on voting behaviour cannot be established. However, internal biases do play a role in making false information acceptable to people if it aligns with their political beliefs.
In the case of first-time voters, who cast their vote based on the information they hold regarding the candidates and not based on prior voting experience, social media plays a pivotal role as a source of political information and news.
Incorrect voting i.e., votes cast based on partisan or unreliable information instead of actual interests poses a risk of distrust among political actors, and doubts about the fairness of the electoral process.