Argentina’s ‘Cold War’ strategy to take the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas steadily progresses

Argentina’s new soft power offensive which rekindled the Falkland’s dispute last year, is gathering apace. On Tuesday it ratified with Chile a joint declaration for fostering greater cooperation between the two states. Point 51 of which committed Chile to recognizing Argentina’s Falklands sovereignty, and to pressure Britain to revisit negotiations.    

This was a coup for Argentina as Chile’s commitment fell in with Buenos Aires’ offensive's wider aim of pressuring the UK back to the negotiating table. A move which for the UK would represent an abandonment of its current policy which deems the will of the Falkland Islanders final, and a weakening of its political position. Though Argentina would still be unlikely to succeed in the near-term, it would exacerbate the issue as a diplomatic ulcer for Britain, which can be picked at by global rivals as part of a growing great power competition, as indeed China and Russia have already started doing.

Adding to this latest diplomatic pressure is the exclusion of the Falkland Islands from Britain’s new EU trade deal, something which Argentina specifically lobbied the EU for, leaving the islands with a “catastrophic” economic challenge as 70% of its GDP was reliant on smooth EU single market access. This combined with Argentina’s campaign of sanctioning British licensed oil companies to discourage regional investment, means the Falkland Islands will in the medium term experience significant economic pressure and stunted development, complementing the steadily increasing Argentine diplomatic pressure.

Argentina’s dual diplomatic and economic offensives then are in the vein of a mini-Cold War, with a slow and steady attempt to make Britain’s position untenable through means other than force. Its success will depend upon the coherence and nature of Britain’s own diplomatic and economic response and may be a key litmus test for post-Brexit Britain’s capability.