Argentina’s growing diplomatic offensive for the Islas Malvinas/Falklands

The general assembly of the Organization of American States (OAS) has reaffirmed its consistent support for Argentina’s claim to the Islas Malvinas/Falkland Islands (MercoPress, 2020). This time it appears to form part of a wider concerted diplomatic offensive by Buenos Aires to force the “recovery” of the disputed islands (MercoPress, 2020).  It comes hot on the heels of Buenos Aires claiming to have doubled the size of Argentina in September (Economist, 2020), based on its interpretation of a 2016 UN ruling on its continental shelf (New York Times, 2016). Though Argentina’s envisaged expansion includes far more than it was deemed entitled to (Economist, 2020).

Argentina claims the expansion bestows rights to the seabed and includes the disputed islands (Buenos Aires Times, 2020). While having no immediate impact, if international recognition begins to be received by regional and other major powers, it may disrupt the region’s economic stability by weakening the legal position for oil companies operating under British license in the area, who already face heavy legal sanctions in Argentina (Ciaran Mcgarth, 2020) and may soon have to contend with a competing legal regime.

Buenos Aires aims to gather international support for its aim to take the Falklands partly through increasing engagement with the European Union, where it hopes that a deteriorating Brexit outcome might damage European support for Britain’s Falkland position in its favour (Eddy Wax, 2018). It recently lobbied Ireland to exclude the disputed Islands from being mentioned in any post-Brexit UK-EU framework (MercoPress, 2020).

Renewed conflict over the Falklands/Islas Malvinas remains unlikely, though Britain believes Argentina represents enough of a potential threat to its position that it allegedly since 2009 has initiated intelligence operations, according to leaked documents, aimed at manipulating Argentine and wider OAS public opinion to be more amenable to Britain’s Falkland presence as a preventative measure (Andrew Fishman, 2015).