Opposition’s victory in Ecuador
On February 5th, Ecuadorians voted for the local authorities and CPCCS (Consejo de Participación Ciudadana y Control Social) that will represent them for the next four years. They also voted for an 8-question referendum promoted by President Guillermo Lasso regarding the extradition for organised crime, and a decrease in the number of General Assembly members, among other topics.
Prefecture Results
The results for Province authorities were divided among three political parties/movements: Revolución Ciudadana, Pachakutik and Partido Social Cristiano.
Revolución Ciudadana self-identifies as a progressive left-wing political movement, led by ex-president Rafael Correa, a critical adversary of current President Guillermo Lasso. Revolución Ciudadana and its allies won in 9 provinces, including the most populated ones: Pichincha, Guayas and Manabí.
Pachakutik has the second-strongest representation nationally, winning in five provinces. Pachakutik is one of the strongest indigenous movements in Ecuador that self-identifies as an organisation independent from traditional political parties, guided by a respect for diversity, plurality and plurinational. In 2021, they announced unity with the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities in Ecuador (CONAIE) and other movements to strengthen indigenous political representation.
Partido Social Cristiano is the third most representative party in prefecture elections, with 3 provinces. However, this is a considerable decrease compared to the 2019 elections, when they won in 8 provinces, including Guayas, the second most populated one and home of the most important port for Ecuador. Partido Social Cristiano was born in the 50s and is characterized by a centre-right ideology. In 2021 they supported Guillermo Lasso’s candidature for the presidency but broke their alliance days before his mandate began.
Mayor Results
The campaigning period unfolded in turmoil in certain sectors, e.g. Omar Menendez, candidate for Revolución Ciudadana and winner for Puerto Lopez Mayorship, was killed days before the election. There have also been complaints of organised crime attacks on at least five other candidates or their close circles.
By the 8th of February, votes were still being scrutinized for the 221 cantons due to some inconsistencies and delays. However, the next mayors for the five main cities have already been announced.
Quito, the capital, presented divided opinions, similar to the last elections in 2019. The new mayor is Revolución Ciudadana’s candidate, Pabel Muñoz followed closely by former mayor Jorge Yunda, who was destitute and surrounded by corruption scandals, and by José Freile, former candidate for the presidency. Guayaquil’s results have shifted completely from a continuous leadership by Partido Social Cristiano for 31 years in a row, to one of its primary adversaries, Revolución Ciudadana with 40%.
Similar to Quito's, Cuenca and Esmeralda’s results are divided between candidates. Cuenca’s new mayor, Cristian Zamora, represents a left-wing political party that has lost strength during the last few years. Vicko Villacís, Revolución Ciudadana’s candidate, will be the new mayor in one of the cities where violence has spiked in the last couple of years.
The results for mayors and prefectures reveal a dominance of Revolución Ciudadana and Pachakutik, both left-wing political movements. This reveals a decreasing support for the official government (centre-right) and a national tendency towards the opposite political ideology. However, it is important to highlight that even though both parties represent the left wing of Ecuadorian politics, there are tensions between them due to continuous criticism expressed by Revolución Ciudadana’s leader, Rafael Correa, during his mandate. Therefore, it remains unclear how new alliances could be formed during the following years and how these may influence the presidential elections in 2025.
Referendum
The results of the 8-question referendum were negative for the government. However, due to 46000 acts with inconsistency, these could be recounted. This would mean a possible shift in the first question (51.66% voted NO), related to the extradition of Ecuadorians involved in organised crime. Currently, article 79 of the Ecuadorian Constitution doesn’t allow, under any circumstance, the extradition of Ecuadorians. The rest of the questions in the referendum would remain the same, regardless of the recount.
What were the questions?
1. Do you agree to allow the extradition of Ecuadorians who have committed transnational organised crimes, through processes that respect their rights and guarantees?
2. Do you agree to guarantee the autonomy of the State Prosecutor’s Office to select, evaluate, promote, train and sanction employees that conform to it through a council?
3. Do you agree to reduce the number of candidates of the National Assembly and that they are elected according to the following criteria: 1 assemblyman per province and 1 assemblyman additional for every 250 000 inhabitants; 2 national assemblymen per every million inhabitants; and 1 assemblyman for every 500 000 habitants who live overseas?
4. Do you agree to demand that political movements have a minimum of 1.5% of the electoral registry affiliated in their jurisdiction and obligate them to keep a register of their members audited periodically by the Consejo Nacional Electoral?
5. Do you agree to eliminate the power to designate authorities that the CPCCS has and implement public processes that guarantee citizen participation, meritocracy and public scrutiny so that it is the National Assembly that designates through these processes the authorities that it currently elects the CPCCS amending the Constitution?
6. Do you agree to modify the designation process of the members of the Consejo de Participación Ciudadana y Control Social, so that they are elected through a process that guarantees citizen participation, meritocracy, and public scrutiny, carried out by the National Assembly, amending the Constitution?
7. Do you agree that the water protection subsystem should be incorporated into the National System of Protected Areas?
8. Do you agree that people, communities, peoples and nationalities can be beneficiaries of compensation duly regularized by the State, for their support for the generation of environmental services?
Conclusion
The overall results mark a setback for the current government that presents a decreasing level of popularity. This could respond to the lack of support for the referendum during the campaigning period. The strongest parties, Revolución Ciudadana and Pachakutik, promoted voting “NO”, whilst CREO and Partido Avanza, movements that didn’t secure enough representation, campaigned for “YES”. The reasons varied from a distrust in how the government could influence the judicial system and the impact it may have in the protection of natural resources.
The CPCCS results also pose a challenge to the government. This council is supposed to be independent of their political alliances in order to appoint important authorities (electoral and judicial). However, it is common that a political majority may influence the appointment of authorities who share the same ideology. The results for this 2023 elections are divided between Revolución Ciudadana (3 members), Partido Social Cristiano (2 members) and 2 representatives independent from political parties. These two political movements oppose each other ideologically, but at the same time, are critical of the official current government.
President Lasso’s mandate has already faced other multiple setbacks, such as a fragmented National Assembly that obstructs his projects, the pandemic’s aftermath, the indigenous protests and the widespread organised crime violence. Furthermore, during the week following the elections, there has been a series of resignations from governmental positions: Presidential Legal Secretary, General Secretary of Public Administration, Minister of Government, Secretary of Management and Development of Peoples and Nationalities, four Governors and a Government Advisor. Therefore, the election results only reveal the political tension Ecuador’s President is facing and a potential return to left-wing governments.