When Ecuadorians enter the polling booth on February 5th, they will face the difficult task of voting not only in sectional and CPCCS (Consejo de Participación Ciudadana y Control Social) elections but also for a wide array of issues included in the referendum fostered by current president Guillermo Lasso. The results of these elections and especially the referendum will most certainly impact the future of the Andean country, which currently finds itself in a brutal climate of violence against political candidates.

Sectional and CPCCS elections

Every four years, Ecuadorians must vote for their local/provincial authorities. Voters will choose 23 provincial prefects and 23 provincial vice prefects, 221 district and municipal mayors, 864 urban councilmen and council women and their respective alternates, 443 rural councilmen and council women and their respective alternates, 4109 vocales for the rural parish juntas -the governmental organ of the rural parishes- and their alternates.

Moreover, Ecuadorians must also choose their representatives for the Consejo de Participación Ciudadana, also known as CPCCS. This is a public entity created by the 2008 Constitution, whose main goal is to ensure that citizens play a key role in the decision-making, planning, and administration of the public processes, the control of the State institutions and their representatives, through permanent processes of construction of citizen power. Moreover, the CPCCS is governed by a territorial, plurinational, and intercultural approach, with gender, generational, autonomy, public deliberation, and solidarity axis.

In the CPCCS election, Ecuadorians will vote for seven main counsellors -three being men, three women, and one from the Indigenous Peoples and Nationalities of Ecuador, Afro-Ecuadorians or Montubios and Ecuadorians abroad- and seven alternates.

According to recent surveys,  there is still a high level of indecision amongst voters approaching election day. For the election of mayors, the indecision attains 56,1% amongst electors, while for prefects it surpasses 61%. Voters between 16 and 25 years old exhibit the highest indecision indicators (59,9%), and the figure is even higher in rural areas (66,1%) and amongst women (56,8%). Different causes have been identified for this phenomenon, such as the lack of accessible information to voters regarding the candidates’ plans and the parties that support them, as well as the lack of attention due to the referendum and events such as the FIFA World Cup and the end-of-year celebrations. 

Referendum

Since the beginning of 2022, President Lasso has made his referendum proposal one of the main axes of his government. Arguing that the referendum aims to solve “one of the main problems of the country: drug crime (narcodelincuencia), terrorism and organised crime” encouraging voters to incline for the “yes”/ “sí” option, voters will have to decide upon several topics. If the electors vote “yes”, new policies will be adopted such as: the extradition of Ecuadorians that have committed crimes, the autonomy of the Attorney General’s Office, the reduction of the number of assemblymen (asambleístas) and the change of the eligibility criteria, the imposition of a minimum threshold of affiliates to political movements, the modification of the CPCCS, and the protection of the environment. This wide array of areas will be covered by 8 questions, and for an option to win, it must have more than 50% of the votes.

Recent surveys have exhibited a majority support for President Lasso’s proposals that comprise the referendum. Amongst those who receive the highest figures of support we can find the reduction of the number of assemblymen - 82.3% of support and 11.1 % against - the reduction of political organizations with the imposal of a threshold of affiliates, and the provision of more environmental protection, both with 79.9% of support. On the other hand, the proposals that gather the least favourable votes are the increase of the Attorney General’s Office autonomy, and the two questions regarding the modifications of the CPCCS, 61.9%, 54.8%, and 49.4% in support respectively. With respect to political parties, Lasso’s Movimiento CREO and Partido Avanza have carried out campaigns in favour of the referendum, while the Partido Unidad Popular, Movimiento Político Revolución Ciudadana, and Partido Socialista Ecuatoriano have campaigned against the President’s proposal. 

An eventual landslide victory for Lasso’s constitutional amendments proposals would be particularly convenient for the Head of State, whose positive image amongst Ecuadorians is currently lower than 20% and does not have an own Congress majority to pass his projects. 

The reigning climate of tension and violence

Apart from the political parties’ active campaigns for both the elections of their representatives and the referendum, these elections promise to be one of the most violent ones in the recent memory of the Andean country. Twelve assaults have occurred against political candidates since the register of the candidacies last August, with one of them -Gerardo Delgado- being murdered. Candidates have suffered armed assaults, stabbings, vehicle and house explosions and the murders of close relatives.

In this situation, the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral) created a security protocol and sent it to the electoral advisers all across the country, focusing on the six provinces with the highest figures of insecurity, which is concentrated in the Costa region of Ecuador. More specifically, authorities have identified Guayaquil, Durán and Esmeraldas as the most conflictive zones. This protocol will guide the elaboration of local protocols and includes an active role of the National Police (Policía Nacional) and the Armed Forces. 

What comes next

• With the elections being closer than ever and in the midst of increasing political violence and high levels of insecurity, the high levels of indecision create an environment of deep uncertainty, making it very difficult to forecast either a positive or negative outcome for President Lasso in the sectional and CPCCS elections. 

• However, the apparent widespread support for Lasso’s constitutional amendments paints a positive landscape for a government in true need of legitimacy. A grand victory would provide air to Lasso’s administration and allow him to regain some popular legitimacy.

• Despite the national security protocol, it is not certain that the election will occur without any episodes of violence against political candidates or voters. These elections will be crucial to ensure the safeness for the Ecuadorian electors to freely express themselves in the polling booths and for candidates to aspire to political positions.